A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-zwe

Simulation 29

Zimbabwe, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 29: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.22 at the 1996 position, 1.17 in 2026; 38 actions over 30 rounds and 12 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 29

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (median simulation), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 1.17 (−6.05); From 7.22
Rank by index: 197; From 79
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 12 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8 Buy Land Power 8 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 8 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 3	Global funding seizure	6.79 −0.421
1998	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8 Buy Land Power 8 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 6	Regional war spillover	6.52 −0.273
1999	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7 Buy Land Power 7 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 6		6.52 −0.003
2000	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Buy Land Power 6 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 6	Trade bloc rupture	6.42 −0.096
2001	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		6.32 −0.101
2002	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4	Breadbasket failure	5.58 −0.738
2003	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3		5.56 −0.023
2004	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3	Chronic disease advance	5.55 −0.007
2005	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4		5.55 −0.002
2006	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 3		5.56 +0.004
2007	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4		5.56 +0.008
2008	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4	Global funding seizureLegitimacy ruptureSevere pandemic	4.11 −1.451
2009	No actions		4.05 −0.061
2010	No actions		3.97 −0.082
2011	No actions		3.89 −0.080
2012	No actions		3.81 −0.079
2013	No actions		3.74 −0.075
2014	No actions		3.68 −0.055
2015	No actions		3.63 −0.052
2016	No actions		3.58 −0.051
2017	No actions	Legitimacy rupture	3.22 −0.357
2018	No actions		3.17 −0.052
2019	No actions	Core disasterBreadbasket failure	2.29 −0.874
2020	No actions	Severe pandemic	1.92 −0.372
2021	No actions		1.86 −0.060
2022	No actions		1.80 −0.059
2023	No actions		1.75 −0.056
2024	No actions	Breadbasket failure	1.25 −0.502
2025	No actions		1.21 −0.040
2026	No actions		1.17 −0.041

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	23	28	28	30	30	38	38	38
Strategic Infrastructure	7	7	7	8	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	13	13	13	13	14
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	13	14	16	16	16	18	18	18
Human Capital	11	11	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	16	16	16	17	17	18	18	18
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	13	13	13	13	13	13	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	21	21	23	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
Governance & Integrity	16	16	16	16	16	16	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	21	23	23	23	23	23	23	24
Financial Strength	19	23	23	23	25	25	26	26	25	25	25	25	39	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	43	43	45	48	48	48	48	48	48	48
Production & Innovation	15	15	15	15	16	16	18	18	18	18	18	18	20	20	21	21	21	21	22	22	22	25	26	29	31	32	32	34	36	36	38
Trade & Investment	12	13	14	14	14	14	17	17	17	17	17	17	21	21	22	22	23	23	23	23	23	23	24	26	28	28	28	29	29	29	29

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	+0.083	+6.2
No shocks	+7.027	+495.2
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.003	+0.2
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.011	+0.8
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+0.8
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.061	−4.7
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.033	+2.5
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.443	+33.0
Without the 2nd largest shock	+1.174	+86.0
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.717	+53.8

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−3.79	−0.12
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.28	0.00	−1.28	0.00	0.00	−4.01	−0.13
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.55	0.00	−1.55	0.00	0.00	−3.69	−0.23
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	0.00	−1.89	0.00	0.00	−4.05	−0.16
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.18	0.00	−2.18	0.00	0.00	−3.66	−0.24
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.72	0.00	−2.72	0.00	−0.10	−3.63	−0.14
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.78	3.57	−3.21	+1.61	−0.50	−3.87	−0.45
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.39	0.00	−3.39	0.00	−0.23	−3.60	−0.43
Space Operations	National Security	3.62	0.00	−3.62	0.00	−0.21	−3.62	−0.79
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.73	0.00	−3.73	0.00	−0.22	−5.07	−0.21
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.58	3.54	−4.04	0.00	−0.50	−3.43	−0.11
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	3.97	−4.28	0.00	−0.96	−3.13	−0.19
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.38	0.00	−4.38	0.00	−0.52	−3.85	−0.20
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.60	0.18	−4.42	0.00	−0.77	−3.54	−0.11
Land Power	National Security	7.73	3.27	−4.46	+2.75	−2.95	−3.50	−0.76
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.49	0.00	−4.49	0.00	−0.22	−4.38	−0.57
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	0.00	−4.51	0.00	−0.40	−3.91	−0.49
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.27	4.76	−4.51	0.00	−1.13	−3.09	−0.30
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	2.87	−4.53	0.00	−0.44	−3.42	−0.68
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	3.92	−4.60	0.00	−0.98	−3.12	−0.50
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	2.34	−4.60	0.00	−0.37	−4.08	−0.14
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.62	0.00	−4.62	0.00	−0.18	−5.47	−0.62
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	3.06	−4.66	0.00	−0.82	−3.15	−0.69
Air Power	National Security	4.67	0.00	−4.67	0.00	−0.58	−3.57	−0.61
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.73	3.04	−4.69	0.00	−0.45	−4.03	−0.21
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	0.28	−4.90	0.00	−0.90	−3.51	−0.49
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.40	4.50	−4.90	0.00	−1.09	−3.08	−0.72
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	0.00	−5.20	0.00	−0.69	−4.43	−0.31
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	0.86	−5.25	0.00	−1.18	−3.50	−0.56
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	5.27	0.00	−5.27	0.00	−0.10	−6.81	−0.58
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	0.81	−5.33	0.00	−1.10	−3.83	−0.41
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.51	2.98	−5.53	0.00	−0.47	−4.14	−0.91
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.97	5.24	−5.73	0.00	−1.28	−3.48	−0.97
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	2.64	−6.01	0.00	−2.30	−3.39	−0.32
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.89	2.76	−6.13	0.00	−0.48	−5.07	−0.58
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.21	0.00	−6.21	0.00	−0.45	−5.75	−0.54
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.75	3.45	−6.30	0.00	−0.94	−4.19	−1.17
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.64	2.34	−6.30	0.00	−1.13	−4.48	−0.69
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	2.15	−6.33	0.00	−0.53	−5.01	−0.79
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.39	0.04	−6.35	0.00	−0.67	−5.38	−0.30
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.66	1.18	−6.48	0.00	−1.15	−5.30	−0.03
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	6.51	0.00	−6.51	0.00	−0.37	−7.28	−0.31
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.08	1.53	−6.55	+0.93	−1.26	−5.47	−0.74
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.46	2.89	−6.57	0.00	−0.94	−4.46	−1.16
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	6.69	0.00	−6.69	0.00	0.00	−11.93	−0.40
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	1.86	−6.72	0.00	−1.08	−4.20	−1.43
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	6.72	0.00	−6.72	0.00	−0.04	−9.29	−0.56
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.42	3.67	−6.75	+2.82	−2.00	−6.08	−1.48
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.54	1.77	−6.77	+1.50	−1.99	−4.88	−1.40
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	6.79	0.00	−6.79	0.00	−0.51	−5.71	−1.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.92	0.90	−7.02	0.00	−1.10	−5.29	−0.64
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	3.26	−7.11	0.00	−2.40	−4.06	−0.65
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.77	0.63	−7.14	0.00	−0.90	−5.65	−0.59
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.18	0.00	−7.18	0.00	−0.29	−7.53	−0.86
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.36	0.00	−7.36	0.00	−0.40	−7.16	−0.96
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.94	2.57	−7.37	0.00	−1.23	−4.81	−1.34
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	0.00	−7.38	0.00	−0.56	−7.70	−0.46
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.05	2.54	−7.51	0.00	−0.48	−6.37	−0.66
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.60	3.02	−7.58	0.00	−1.42	−4.78	−1.39
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.71	0.00	−7.71	0.00	−0.20	−8.10	−0.68
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	0.14	−8.07	0.00	−0.80	−6.76	−0.51
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.12	0.00	−8.12	+0.33	−0.05	−12.58	−1.55
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.13	0.00	−8.13	0.00	−0.45	−7.75	−0.74
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.20	0.00	−8.20	0.00	−0.66	−6.83	−0.94
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.55	1.35	−8.20	+0.22	−1.36	−6.29	−0.77
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.22	0.00	−8.22	0.00	−0.56	−7.04	−0.96
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.35	0.92	−8.43	0.00	−0.99	−6.47	−0.97
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	8.54	0.00	−8.54	0.00	−0.70	−7.07	−0.97
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.66	0.00	−8.66	0.00	−0.73	−7.06	−0.94
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	1.36	−8.67	0.00	−0.99	−5.33	−2.35
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	0.00	−8.69	0.00	−0.38	−8.44	−0.28
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	0.03	−8.72	0.00	−0.42	−7.98	−0.32
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.02	0.00	−10.02	0.00	−0.62	−10.69	−1.28

Seed 29 of experiment cycle-002.e4-zwe. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.