Median simulation · cycle-002.e4-zwe

Simulation 2

Zimbabwe, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 2: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.22 at the 1996 position, 1.18 in 2026; 38 actions over 30 rounds and 12 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 2

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 1.18 (−6.03); From 7.22
Rank by index: 197; From 79
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 12 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8 Buy Land Power 8 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 8 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 3	Global funding seizure	6.79 −0.421
1998	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8 Buy Land Power 8 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 6	Regional war spillover	6.52 −0.273
1999	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7 Buy Land Power 7 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 6		6.52 −0.003
2000	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Buy Land Power 6 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 6	Trade bloc rupture	6.42 −0.095
2001	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		6.32 −0.101
2002	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4	Breadbasket failure	5.59 −0.737
2003	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3		5.56 −0.023
2004	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3	Chronic disease advance	5.56 −0.006
2005	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4		5.56 −0.001
2006	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 3		5.56 +0.005
2007	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 3		5.57 +0.009
2008	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4	Global funding seizureLegitimacy ruptureSevere pandemic	4.12 −1.449
2009	No actions		4.06 −0.060
2010	No actions		3.98 −0.080
2011	No actions		3.90 −0.078
2012	No actions		3.83 −0.078
2013	No actions		3.75 −0.074
2014	No actions		3.70 −0.055
2015	No actions		3.65 −0.052
2016	No actions		3.59 −0.051
2017	No actions	Legitimacy rupture	3.24 −0.358
2018	No actions		3.18 −0.053
2019	No actions	Core disasterBreadbasket failure	2.31 −0.875
2020	No actions	Severe pandemic	1.94 −0.373
2021	No actions		1.88 −0.056
2022	No actions		1.82 −0.058
2023	No actions		1.77 −0.055
2024	No actions	Breadbasket failure	1.26 −0.504
2025	No actions		1.22 −0.040
2026	No actions		1.18 −0.040

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	18	18	23	30	30	30	30	39	39	39
Strategic Infrastructure	7	7	7	8	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	12	12	13	13	13	13
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	13	14	16	16	16	18	18	18
Human Capital	11	11	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	16	16	16	16	17	18	18	18
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	13	13	13	13	13	13	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	21	21	24	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
Governance & Integrity	16	16	16	16	16	16	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	21	21	23	23	23	23	23	23
Financial Strength	19	23	23	23	25	25	25	26	25	25	25	25	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	43	43	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48
Production & Innovation	15	15	15	15	16	16	18	18	18	18	18	18	20	21	21	21	21	22	22	22	22	25	26	29	31	32	32	32	36	36	36
Trade & Investment	12	13	14	14	14	14	17	17	17	17	17	17	20	21	21	21	21	23	23	23	23	23	23	26	27	27	28	28	29	29	29

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	+0.083	+6.2
No shocks	+7.027	+495.2
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.003	+0.2
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.011	+0.8
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+0.8
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.061	−4.7
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.033	+2.5
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.443	+33.0
Without the 2nd largest shock	+1.174	+86.0
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.717	+53.8

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−3.78	−0.05
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.28	0.00	−1.28	0.00	0.00	−4.01	−0.08
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.55	0.00	−1.55	0.00	0.00	−3.69	−0.18
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	0.00	−1.89	0.00	0.00	−4.05	−0.14
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.18	0.00	−2.18	0.00	0.00	−3.66	−0.25
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.72	0.00	−2.72	0.00	−0.09	−3.63	−0.23
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.78	3.76	−3.02	+1.59	−0.52	−3.87	−0.23
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.39	0.00	−3.39	0.00	−0.24	−3.60	−0.39
Space Operations	National Security	3.62	0.00	−3.62	0.00	−0.23	−3.62	−0.67
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.73	0.00	−3.73	0.00	−0.21	−5.07	−0.25
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.58	3.58	−4.00	0.00	−0.50	−3.43	−0.06
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	3.96	−4.29	0.00	−0.97	−3.13	−0.19
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.38	0.00	−4.38	0.00	−0.51	−3.85	−0.26
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.60	0.20	−4.40	0.00	−0.79	−3.54	−0.07
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.27	4.86	−4.41	0.00	−1.15	−3.09	−0.18
Land Power	National Security	7.73	3.29	−4.44	+2.75	−2.98	−3.49	−0.72
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	2.94	−4.46	0.00	−0.45	−3.42	−0.60
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.49	0.00	−4.49	0.00	−0.19	−4.38	−0.82
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	0.00	−4.51	0.00	−0.38	−3.91	−0.57
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	3.95	−4.57	0.00	−0.99	−3.12	−0.46
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	2.33	−4.61	0.00	−0.38	−4.08	−0.15
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.62	0.00	−4.62	0.00	−0.18	−5.47	−0.66
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.73	3.11	−4.62	0.00	−0.46	−4.02	−0.13
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	3.08	−4.64	0.00	−0.82	−3.15	−0.66
Air Power	National Security	4.67	0.00	−4.67	0.00	−0.57	−3.57	−0.67
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.40	4.61	−4.79	0.00	−1.12	−3.08	−0.58
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	0.17	−5.01	0.00	−0.83	−3.51	−0.67
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	1.03	−5.08	0.00	−1.27	−3.50	−0.30
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	0.00	−5.20	0.00	−0.69	−4.43	−0.33
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	5.27	0.00	−5.27	0.00	−0.11	−6.80	−0.38
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	0.83	−5.31	0.00	−1.12	−3.83	−0.36
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.51	3.05	−5.46	0.00	−0.49	−4.14	−0.83
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.97	5.15	−5.82	0.00	−1.28	−3.48	−1.06
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.89	2.91	−5.98	0.00	−0.50	−5.07	−0.41
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	2.63	−6.02	0.00	−2.32	−3.38	−0.31
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.21	0.00	−6.21	0.00	−0.43	−5.74	−0.69
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.46	3.21	−6.25	0.00	−0.99	−4.46	−0.80
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.39	0.07	−6.32	0.00	−0.68	−5.37	−0.27
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.75	3.38	−6.37	0.00	−0.94	−4.18	−1.24
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	2.04	−6.44	0.00	−0.53	−5.01	−0.90
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.08	1.63	−6.45	+0.87	−1.29	−5.48	−0.54
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.54	2.07	−6.47	+1.51	−2.20	−4.88	−0.89
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.66	1.17	−6.49	0.00	−1.16	−5.30	−0.03
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	6.51	0.00	−6.51	0.00	−0.37	−7.28	−0.32
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.64	2.09	−6.55	0.00	−1.07	−4.48	−1.01
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	2.03	−6.55	0.00	−1.13	−4.20	−1.22
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.42	3.80	−6.62	+2.81	−2.04	−6.08	−1.30
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	6.69	0.00	−6.69	0.00	0.00	−11.93	−0.75
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	6.72	0.00	−6.72	0.00	−0.04	−9.29	−0.51
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	6.79	0.00	−6.79	0.00	−0.58	−5.71	−0.68
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	3.32	−7.05	0.00	−2.45	−4.06	−0.54
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.77	0.66	−7.11	0.00	−0.93	−5.65	−0.53
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.94	2.79	−7.15	0.00	−1.30	−4.80	−1.05
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.18	0.00	−7.18	0.00	−0.27	−7.53	−1.11
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.92	0.63	−7.29	0.00	−1.03	−5.29	−0.97
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.36	0.00	−7.36	0.00	−0.39	−7.15	−1.10
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	0.00	−7.38	0.00	−0.58	−7.70	−0.38
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.05	2.44	−7.61	0.00	−0.48	−6.37	−0.77
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.71	0.00	−7.71	0.00	−0.22	−8.09	−0.42
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.60	2.84	−7.76	0.00	−1.38	−4.78	−1.61
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	0.26	−7.95	0.00	−0.84	−6.76	−0.35
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	2.02	−8.01	0.00	−1.18	−5.32	−1.51
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.12	0.00	−8.12	+0.33	−0.05	−12.57	−1.53
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.13	0.00	−8.13	0.00	−0.44	−7.75	−0.76
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.20	0.00	−8.20	0.00	−0.66	−6.83	−0.98
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.22	0.00	−8.22	0.00	−0.55	−7.04	−1.00
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.55	1.12	−8.43	+0.22	−1.31	−6.29	−1.06
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.66	0.14	−8.52	0.00	−0.80	−7.06	−0.66
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	8.54	0.00	−8.54	0.00	−0.74	−7.07	−0.80
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	0.00	−8.69	0.00	−0.38	−8.43	−0.26
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	0.00	−8.75	0.00	−0.42	−7.97	−0.38
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.35	0.56	−8.79	0.00	−0.91	−6.47	−1.41
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.02	0.00	−10.02	0.00	−0.64	−10.68	−1.20

Seed 2 of experiment cycle-002.e4-zwe. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.