A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-bra

Simulation 1

Brazil, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.43 at the 1996 position, 11.54 in 2026; 110 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 1

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 26 (median simulation), 23 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.54 (+0.11); From 11.43
Rank by index: 31; From 34
Domains at Tier 1: 3; From 0
Events: 4 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 21 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 21		11.48 +0.052
1998	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 21 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 21		11.54 +0.066
1999	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 21 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 21	Global funding seizure	11.35 −0.196
2000	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 22 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 22 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 22		11.42 +0.070
2001	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 21 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 21	Core disaster	11.32 −0.100
2002	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 22 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 22 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 22		11.39 +0.067
2003	Build Foundational Education 21 Build Population Health 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Energy Infrastructure 21 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 21		11.43 +0.044
2004	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.48 +0.049
2005	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.54 +0.059
2006	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.61 +0.067
2007	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.68 +0.072
2008	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22	Global funding seizure	11.58 −0.093
2009	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.64 +0.057
2010	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5		11.69 +0.050
2011	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 22 Build Advanced Education 18		11.74 +0.047
2012	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 22 Build Advanced Education 2		11.78 +0.041
2013	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 10		11.81 +0.034
2014	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 2		11.84 +0.026
2015	Build Resource Infrastructure 21		11.86 +0.020
2016	Build Resource Infrastructure 20		11.87 +0.014
2017	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Labour & Employment 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		11.89 +0.017
2018	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Labour & Employment 8		11.91 +0.019
2019	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 9 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7		11.93 +0.020
2020	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 9 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6	Severe pandemic	11.41 −0.518
2021	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 9 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Partner Digital & AI Competence 9 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9		11.43 +0.018
2022	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Digital & AI Competence 8 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 8 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8		11.46 +0.026
2023	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 21 Build Energy Technologies 21 Build Energy Infrastructure 10		11.48 +0.024
2024	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 21 Build Energy Technologies 19		11.50 +0.017
2025	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 21 Build Energy Technologies 17		11.52 +0.020
2026	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 21 Build Energy Technologies 16		11.54 +0.023

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Human Capital	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	10	10	9	8	7	7	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Financial Strength	9	9	9	9	7	6	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Production & Innovation	6	6	6	5	5	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	5	5	5	5	5	4	3
Trade & Investment	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.567	−113.9	−2.30
No shocks	+1.045	+70.9	+1.20
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.018	+1.4	+0.30
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.002	−0.2	+0.30
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.002	−0.3	+0.30
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.033	+2.5	+0.30
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.037	+3.1	−0.30
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.465	+32.4	+0.70
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.306	+20.3	−0.30
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.170	+11.9	−0.30

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.18	19.39	+8.21	+9.34	−0.90	−0.01
Population Health	Human Capital	11.35	18.16	+6.81	+7.85	−0.91	−0.13
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.60	18.83	+6.23	+6.94	−0.81	+0.10
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.24	17.10	+5.86	+6.61	−0.86	+0.13
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.50	18.82	+5.32	+5.74	−0.85	+0.43
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.25	15.55	+5.30	+6.70	−1.58	+0.17
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.52	19.00	+4.48	+5.42	−0.85	−0.10
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.93	15.13	+4.20	+5.03	−0.82	−0.01
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.37	15.88	+3.51	+4.21	−0.89	+0.18
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.93	16.97	+3.04	+4.68	−1.69	+0.04
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.84	17.87	+3.03	+3.86	−0.68	−0.16
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.72	14.00	+2.28	+4.94	−2.41	−0.25
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	14.32	16.41	+2.09	+3.17	−1.50	+0.42
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.36	13.22	+1.86	+1.56	−0.70	+1.00
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.47	12.01	+1.54	+1.19	−0.74	+1.09
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.97	16.30	+0.33	+1.19	−0.70	−0.17
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.45	12.69	+0.24	+1.26	−1.34	+0.32
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.88	+0.03	0.00	−0.41	+0.44
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.93	0.88	−0.05	0.00	−0.05	0.00
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.05	9.93	−0.12	0.00	−0.74	+0.63
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.00	10.86	−0.14	0.00	−0.73	+0.59
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	10.56	10.39	−0.17	0.00	−0.43	+0.26
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	13.35	13.03	−0.32	0.00	−0.70	+0.37
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	14.28	13.95	−0.33	0.00	−0.71	+0.38
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.56	11.21	−0.35	0.00	−0.73	+0.37
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.41	6.04	−0.37	0.00	−0.29	−0.08
Space Operations	National Security	6.73	6.33	−0.40	0.00	−0.30	−0.10
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.45	11.04	−0.41	+1.63	−2.57	+0.52
Maritime Power	National Security	12.46	12.03	−0.43	0.00	−0.41	−0.02
Land Power	National Security	12.43	11.98	−0.45	0.00	−0.41	−0.03
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.70	4.25	−0.45	0.00	−0.45	+0.01
Air Power	National Security	10.64	10.17	−0.47	0.00	−0.43	−0.04
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	10.13	−0.48	0.00	−0.43	−0.05
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.90	9.41	−0.49	0.00	−0.42	−0.06
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.31	11.75	−0.56	0.00	−0.73	+0.17
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	6.53	5.93	−0.60	0.00	−0.61	+0.02
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.36	7.63	−0.73	0.00	−0.76	+0.03
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	11.23	10.49	−0.74	0.00	−0.73	−0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.76	9.01	−0.75	0.00	−0.71	−0.04
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.30	8.55	−0.75	0.00	−0.69	−0.07
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.36	9.60	−0.76	0.00	−0.94	+0.18
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.06	9.30	−0.76	0.00	−0.73	−0.03
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	8.30	−0.77	0.00	−0.67	−0.10
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	8.30	7.53	−0.77	0.00	−0.75	−0.02
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.19	9.37	−0.82	0.00	−0.90	+0.08
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.23	7.40	−0.83	0.00	−0.74	−0.09
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.07	10.23	−0.84	0.00	−1.00	+0.17
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.77	11.92	−0.85	0.00	−0.86	+0.01
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.91	15.03	−0.88	0.00	−0.95	+0.07
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.50	8.62	−0.88	0.00	−0.95	+0.07
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.70	11.79	−0.91	0.00	−0.98	+0.07
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.07	11.12	−0.95	0.00	−1.20	+0.26
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.21	9.24	−0.97	0.00	−1.00	+0.03
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.80	9.78	−1.02	0.00	−1.64	+0.62
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	10.98	9.95	−1.03	0.00	−0.89	−0.14
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.17	12.08	−1.09	0.00	−1.59	+0.50
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.97	9.77	−1.20	0.00	−1.36	+0.15
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.76	11.53	−1.23	+0.08	−1.41	+0.11
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	8.67	−1.25	+1.10	−2.38	+0.04
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.93	9.67	−1.26	0.00	−1.16	−0.10
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.06	10.76	−1.30	0.00	−1.44	+0.14
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.92	11.56	−1.36	0.00	−1.88	+0.52
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.92	8.46	−1.46	0.00	−1.36	−0.10
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.15	11.68	−1.47	0.00	−1.32	−0.14
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.95	11.44	−1.51	0.00	−1.44	−0.07
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	14.01	12.38	−1.63	0.00	−1.92	+0.29
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.28	11.64	−1.64	0.00	−1.59	−0.06
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	13.11	11.45	−1.66	0.00	−1.57	−0.08
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	9.91	−1.73	0.00	−1.62	−0.11
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.24	10.51	−1.73	0.00	−1.61	−0.13
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.49	10.42	−2.07	0.00	−1.97	−0.11
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	14.27	12.13	−2.14	0.00	−2.11	−0.03
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.44	10.16	−2.28	0.00	−2.27	−0.01

Seed 1 of experiment cycle-003.e4-bra. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.