Median simulation · cycle-003.e4-bra

Simulation 26

Brazil, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 26: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.43 at the 1996 position, 11.55 in 2026; 113 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 26

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 23 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.55 (+0.13); From 11.43
Rank by index: 31; From 34
Domains at Tier 1: 2; From 0
Events: 4 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 21 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 21		11.48 +0.052
1998	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 21 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 21		11.54 +0.066
1999	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 21 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 21	Global funding seizure	11.35 −0.196
2000	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 22 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 22 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 22		11.42 +0.070
2001	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 21 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 21	Core disaster	11.32 −0.100
2002	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 22 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 22 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 22		11.38 +0.066
2003	Build Foundational Education 21 Build Population Health 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Energy Infrastructure 21 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 21		11.43 +0.043
2004	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.48 +0.049
2005	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.54 +0.058
2006	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.60 +0.067
2007	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.67 +0.072
2008	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22	Global funding seizure	11.58 −0.092
2009	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 22		11.64 +0.058
2010	Build Foundational Education 22 Build Population Health 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Infrastructure 22 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 2		11.69 +0.051
2011	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 22 Build Advanced Education 19		11.74 +0.048
2012	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 22 Build Advanced Education 4		11.78 +0.043
2013	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 12		11.82 +0.035
2014	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 4		11.84 +0.027
2015	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 2		11.87 +0.022
2016	Build Resource Infrastructure 22 Build Energy Technologies 1		11.88 +0.016
2017	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Labour & Employment 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3		11.90 +0.017
2018	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Labour & Employment 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 1		11.92 +0.020
2019	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 9 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8		11.94 +0.020
2020	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 9 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6	Severe pandemic	11.42 −0.516
2021	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 9 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Partner Digital & AI Competence 9 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9		11.44 +0.018
2022	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Digital & AI Competence 8 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 8 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8		11.47 +0.027
2023	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 21 Build Energy Technologies 21 Build Energy Infrastructure 10		11.49 +0.025
2024	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 21 Build Energy Technologies 19		11.51 +0.017
2025	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 21 Build Energy Technologies 17		11.53 +0.020
2026	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 21 Build Energy Technologies 16		11.55 +0.023

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Human Capital	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2
Governance & Integrity	10	10	9	8	7	7	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Financial Strength	9	9	9	9	7	6	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Production & Innovation	6	6	6	5	5	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	5	5	5	5	5	4	3
Trade & Investment	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.567	−113.9	−2.30
No shocks	+1.045	+70.9	+1.20
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.018	+1.4	+0.30
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.002	−0.2	+0.30
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.002	−0.3	+0.30
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.033	+2.5	+0.30
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.037	+3.1	−0.30
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.465	+32.4	+0.70
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.306	+20.3	−0.30
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.170	+11.9	−0.30

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.18	19.37	+8.19	+9.33	−0.90	+0.04
Population Health	Human Capital	11.35	18.09	+6.74	+7.86	−0.91	−0.20
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.60	18.86	+6.26	+6.93	−0.81	+0.14
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.24	17.10	+5.86	+6.61	−0.86	+0.12
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.25	15.51	+5.26	+6.71	−1.58	+0.13
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.50	18.68	+5.18	+5.83	−0.85	+0.20
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.52	18.99	+4.47	+5.38	−0.85	−0.06
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.93	15.12	+4.19	+5.03	−0.82	−0.02
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.37	16.06	+3.69	+4.42	−0.88	+0.15
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.84	17.98	+3.14	+3.89	−0.68	−0.07
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.93	17.04	+3.11	+4.68	−1.69	+0.12
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.36	13.88	+2.52	+1.72	−0.69	+1.49
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.72	14.04	+2.32	+4.93	−2.41	−0.21
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	14.32	16.33	+2.01	+3.17	−1.50	+0.34
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.47	11.85	+1.38	+1.20	−0.74	+0.92
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.97	16.29	+0.32	+1.19	−0.70	−0.17
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.45	12.72	+0.27	+1.25	−1.33	+0.35
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.45	11.42	−0.03	+1.58	−2.57	+0.95
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.93	0.88	−0.05	0.00	−0.04	0.00
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.76	−0.09	0.00	−0.41	+0.32
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	10.56	10.44	−0.12	0.00	−0.43	+0.31
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.05	9.93	−0.12	0.00	−0.74	+0.62
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.00	10.80	−0.20	0.00	−0.73	+0.53
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.56	11.36	−0.20	0.00	−0.72	+0.52
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.41	6.07	−0.34	0.00	−0.29	−0.05
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	13.35	13.01	−0.34	0.00	−0.70	+0.35
Space Operations	National Security	6.73	6.30	−0.43	0.00	−0.30	−0.13
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.70	4.26	−0.44	0.00	−0.45	+0.01
Land Power	National Security	12.43	11.98	−0.45	0.00	−0.41	−0.03
Maritime Power	National Security	12.46	12.01	−0.45	0.00	−0.41	−0.03
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	10.13	−0.48	0.00	−0.43	−0.05
Air Power	National Security	10.64	10.15	−0.49	0.00	−0.43	−0.06
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	14.28	13.78	−0.50	0.00	−0.71	+0.21
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.90	9.40	−0.50	0.00	−0.42	−0.08
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	6.53	5.94	−0.59	0.00	−0.61	+0.02
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.31	11.67	−0.64	0.00	−0.73	+0.10
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.07	10.42	−0.65	0.00	−1.00	+0.35
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.36	7.67	−0.69	0.00	−0.76	+0.07
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.91	15.18	−0.73	0.00	−0.95	+0.22
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.76	9.03	−0.73	0.00	−0.71	−0.03
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	11.23	10.49	−0.74	0.00	−0.73	−0.02
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.06	9.31	−0.75	0.00	−0.73	−0.02
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.30	8.55	−0.75	0.00	−0.69	−0.06
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.19	9.43	−0.76	0.00	−0.90	+0.14
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	8.31	−0.76	0.00	−0.67	−0.08
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	8.30	7.51	−0.79	0.00	−0.75	−0.04
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.07	11.27	−0.80	0.00	−1.20	+0.40
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.23	7.41	−0.82	0.00	−0.74	−0.09
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.36	9.51	−0.85	0.00	−0.94	+0.08
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.77	11.90	−0.87	0.00	−0.86	−0.01
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.70	11.80	−0.90	0.00	−0.98	+0.09
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.50	8.60	−0.90	0.00	−0.95	+0.05
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	10.98	10.01	−0.97	0.00	−0.88	−0.08
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.21	9.23	−0.98	0.00	−1.00	+0.03
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.17	12.16	−1.01	0.00	−1.59	+0.57
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.76	11.61	−1.15	+0.19	−1.41	+0.07
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.80	9.60	−1.20	0.00	−1.63	+0.44
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.06	10.83	−1.23	0.00	−1.44	+0.21
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.93	9.69	−1.24	0.00	−1.16	−0.07
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	8.65	−1.27	+1.11	−2.38	−0.01
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.97	9.70	−1.27	0.00	−1.36	+0.08
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.92	8.51	−1.41	0.00	−1.36	−0.05
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.15	11.66	−1.49	0.00	−1.32	−0.17
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.95	11.43	−1.52	0.00	−1.43	−0.09
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.92	11.40	−1.52	0.00	−1.88	+0.36
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.28	11.64	−1.64	0.00	−1.58	−0.05
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	14.01	12.37	−1.64	0.00	−1.92	+0.29
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	13.11	11.45	−1.66	0.00	−1.57	−0.09
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.24	10.53	−1.71	0.00	−1.60	−0.10
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	9.91	−1.73	0.00	−1.62	−0.11
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.49	10.42	−2.07	0.00	−1.97	−0.11
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	14.27	12.12	−2.15	0.00	−2.11	−0.05
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.44	10.13	−2.31	0.00	−2.27	−0.05

Seed 26 of experiment cycle-003.e4-bra. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.