A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-cze

Simulation 24

Czechia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 24: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.89 at the 1996 position, 11.59 in 2026; 85 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 24

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (median simulation), 21 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.59 (−0.30); From 11.89
Rank by index: 32; From 30
Domains at Tier 1: 3; From 0
Events: 6 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Partner Air Power 9 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 9 Partner Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 9	Global funding seizureCore disaster	11.65 −0.243
1998	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Partner Air Power 9 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 9 Partner Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 9 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Energy Infrastructure 21 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 21 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 21		11.70 +0.049
1999	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 8 Partner Air Power 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 8 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 20 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 20		11.76 +0.064
2000	Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 20 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 20		11.82 +0.057
2001	Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 20 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 20		11.86 +0.046
2002	Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 20 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 20	Core disaster	11.79 −0.079
2003	Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 20 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 20		11.83 +0.043
2004	Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 20 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 1	Market access opening	11.97 +0.144
2005	Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 20 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 20 Build Advanced Education 20 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 5		12.13 +0.153
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 21 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 21 Build Advanced Education 3		12.28 +0.158
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 9		12.33 +0.049
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 12	Global funding seizure	12.14 −0.196
2009	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build Labour & Employment 0		12.16 +0.019
2010	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2		12.17 +0.010
2011	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 1		12.18 +0.010
2012	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0		12.18 +0.005
2013	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0		12.19 +0.004
2014	Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 0		12.19 +0.005
2015	No actions		12.19 +0.003
2016	No actions		12.19 +0.001
2017	No actions		12.19 0.000
2018	No actions		12.19 0.000
2019	No actions		12.19 0.000
2020	No actions	Severe pandemic	11.85 −0.348
2021	Build Health System Capability 17		11.84 −0.004
2022	Build Health System Capability 17	Regional war spillover	11.58 −0.262
2023	Build Health System Capability 19 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 19 Build Energy Infrastructure 1		11.57 −0.004
2024	Build Health System Capability 19 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 19 Build Energy Infrastructure 2		11.57 −0.001
2025	Build Health System Capability 19 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 19 Build Energy Infrastructure 3		11.58 +0.007
2026	Build Health System Capability 19 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 19 Build Energy Infrastructure 3		11.59 +0.012

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Information & Influence	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	10	11	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	13	13	13	13	13
Production & Innovation	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Trade & Investment	5	5	5	5	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−0.812	−58.7	−3.00
No shocks	+1.117	+75.4	+0.60
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.004	−0.5	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.003	−0.4	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.006	−0.3	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.352	+23.8	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.244	+16.9	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.244	+16.2	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	12.53	18.53	+6.00	+5.92	0.00	+0.09	−0.01
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	12.67	18.52	+5.85	+6.13	0.00	−0.27	−0.01
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.17	19.22	+5.05	+6.01	0.00	−0.58	−0.27
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.42	17.49	+4.07	+4.68	0.00	−0.62	+0.01
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.73	19.12	+3.39	+4.42	−0.01	−0.79	+0.14
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.18	6.85	+2.67	+2.81	0.00	−0.20	+0.06
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	12.68	14.41	+1.73	+2.60	0.00	−0.79	−0.09
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.41	16.78	+1.37	+2.24	0.00	−1.23	+0.36
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.88	16.23	+1.35	+2.55	0.00	−0.92	−0.28
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.01	15.88	+0.87	+1.23	0.00	−0.30	−0.05
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	15.39	16.19	+0.80	+2.05	0.00	−1.46	+0.21
Air Power	National Security	9.64	10.10	+0.46	+1.19	0.00	−0.70	−0.03
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.26	15.38	+0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.04	+0.07
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	13.71	13.75	+0.04	0.00	0.00	−0.40	+0.44
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.02
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	14.52	14.44	−0.08	0.00	0.00	−0.58	+0.51
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.00	13.90	−0.10	+0.22	0.00	−0.33	+0.02
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.68	11.55	−0.13	+1.02	0.00	−0.68	−0.46
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.56	11.39	−0.17	+1.89	0.00	−1.93	−0.13
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	1.67	−0.22	0.00	0.00	−0.21	−0.01
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	4.42	−0.27	0.00	0.00	−0.24	−0.03
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	4.94	−0.30	0.00	0.00	−0.29	−0.01
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	12.94	12.63	−0.31	0.00	0.00	−0.35	+0.04
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	10.07	9.75	−0.32	0.00	0.00	−0.46	+0.15
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	4.19	−0.39	0.00	0.00	−0.34	−0.05
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	15.21	14.80	−0.41	0.00	0.00	−0.37	−0.04
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	13.30	12.88	−0.42	0.00	0.00	−0.34	−0.07
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.86	13.43	−0.43	0.00	0.00	−0.59	+0.16
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.80	12.37	−0.43	0.00	0.00	−0.41	−0.01
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.25	8.81	−0.44	0.00	0.00	−0.59	+0.15
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.45	15.98	−0.47	0.00	0.00	−0.31	−0.16
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	7.84	7.32	−0.52	0.00	0.00	−0.48	−0.03
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	8.51	7.97	−0.54	0.00	0.00	−0.53	0.00
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.69	9.07	−0.62	0.00	0.00	−0.62	0.00
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	8.99	−0.64	0.00	0.00	−0.66	+0.03
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.58	8.92	−0.66	0.00	0.00	−0.61	−0.06
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.98	15.30	−0.68	0.00	0.00	−0.56	−0.12
Land Power	National Security	10.93	10.23	−0.70	0.00	0.00	−0.68	−0.02
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.30	5.60	−0.70	0.00	0.00	−0.66	−0.03
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.27	13.56	−0.71	0.00	0.00	−0.58	−0.13
Population Health	Human Capital	13.73	13.02	−0.71	0.00	0.00	−0.59	−0.11
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.94	12.21	−0.73	0.00	0.00	−0.77	+0.04
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.90	9.17	−0.73	+0.01	0.00	−0.67	−0.06
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.38	10.64	−0.74	0.00	0.00	−0.91	+0.18
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.52	10.75	−0.77	0.00	0.00	−0.78	+0.02
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	6.78	−0.83	0.00	0.00	−0.56	−0.27
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	10.05	9.20	−0.85	0.00	0.00	−0.92	+0.07
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.35	9.49	−0.86	0.00	0.00	−0.63	−0.23
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.92	13.05	−0.87	0.00	0.00	−0.79	−0.08
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	12.48	11.59	−0.89	0.00	0.00	−0.77	−0.11
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.01	13.12	−0.89	+1.12	0.00	−1.85	−0.15
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.80	10.88	−0.92	0.00	0.00	−1.12	+0.20
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	9.74	8.81	−0.93	0.00	0.00	−0.98	+0.05
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.96	11.96	−1.00	0.00	0.00	−0.84	−0.16
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	12.62	11.60	−1.02	0.00	0.00	−1.10	+0.09
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.98	8.94	−1.04	0.00	0.00	−1.03	0.00
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	14.56	13.50	−1.06	0.00	0.00	−0.86	−0.19
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	13.06	11.98	−1.08	0.00	0.00	−1.02	−0.05
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.30	12.20	−1.10	0.00	0.00	−1.09	0.00
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.05	12.94	−1.11	0.00	0.00	−0.83	−0.28
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.10	10.95	−1.15	0.00	0.00	−1.11	−0.03
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.94	9.70	−1.24	0.00	0.00	−1.19	−0.05
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	13.78	12.44	−1.34	0.00	0.00	−1.37	+0.03
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	12.40	−1.39	0.00	0.00	−2.13	+0.75
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.00	8.58	−1.42	0.00	0.00	−1.33	−0.09
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	14.44	13.02	−1.42	0.00	0.00	−1.35	−0.06
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	12.08	10.54	−1.54	0.00	0.00	−1.90	+0.35
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.94	13.32	−1.62	0.00	0.00	−1.00	−0.62
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.25	9.60	−1.65	0.00	0.00	−1.65	0.00
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.24	9.36	−1.88	0.00	0.00	−1.79	−0.10
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.75	9.72	−2.03	0.00	0.00	−2.19	+0.17
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.29	13.22	−2.07	+0.01	0.00	−1.92	−0.15
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	13.26	10.08	−3.18	0.00	0.00	−2.83	−0.34

Seed 24 of experiment cycle-003.e4-cze. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.