E4 · cycle-003.e4-cze

Czechia, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Czechia decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Core disaster in year 1, Core disaster in year 6, Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 11.61 (−0.28); From 11.89; 11.59 to 11.62
Rank by index: 32; From 30; 32 to 32
Domains at Tier 1: 3; From 0; 3 to 3
Tier rank: 5; From 30; 5 to 5

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	11.89	11.59	11.61	11.62	higher
Rank by index	30	32	32	32	lower
Tier rank	30	5	5	5	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	3	3	3	higher
Score sum	854.3	837.3	838.2	839.0	higher
Goal-weighted score	854.3	837.3	838.2	839.0	higher
Resilient score	854.3	838.2 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 90 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 10 per cent of the 1,265 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Czechia actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 11.89; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 11.51; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 11.60; 11.56 to 11.66
Skill against persistence: −0.41; group error 1.52 against 1.08 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	7.90	7.98	7.64 7.6–7.7	−0.33	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	13.39	12.07	13.66 13.6–13.7	+1.59	wrong
National Security	7.43	7.37	7.05 7.0–7.1	−0.32	wrong
Human Capital	14.62	13.69	14.58 14.6–14.6	+0.89	wrong
Information & Influence	11.36	10.87	10.92 10.9–10.9	+0.06	right
Governance & Integrity	13.18	13.50	14.30 14.3–14.3	+0.80	right
Financial Strength	12.11	12.77	10.59 10.5–10.7	−2.18	wrong
Production & Innovation	13.11	12.64	12.20 12.2–12.3	−0.44	right
Trade & Investment	13.92	12.73	13.50 13.4–13.6	+0.77	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 0.5 The May 1997 currency crisis forced a managed float and bank restructuring after short-term capital reversed.
1997 · S07 × 0.4 The July 1997 Morava and Odra floods devastated eastern Bohemia and Moravia, damaging infrastructure and local economies.
2002 · S07 × 0.5 The August 2002 Vltava flood inundated Prague and much of Bohemia, causing the country's largest natural-disaster loss to that date.
2004 · S12 × 0.7 EU accession on 1 May 2004 opened the single market and redirected investment and trade flows.
2008 · S02 × 0.7 The global financial crisis hit export demand and industrial production, though the banking system remained relatively stable.
2020 · S10 × 0.6 The COVID-19 pandemic triggered repeated lockdowns and a deep recession, straining hospitals and public finances.
2022 · S03 × 0.4 Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy and supply chains, brought large refugee inflows, and raised security spending.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–1999 · partner · 2% each Pursued NATO interoperability and stabilised the crown after the May 1997 currency crisis through IMF and international support. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Air Power, Monetary & Currency Capability, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Alliances & Security Cooperation)
1998–2004 · build · 5% each Aligned laws, infrastructure and market institutions with the EU acquis in the run-up to the 2004 accession. (Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access, Justice System & Fundamental Rights)
2004–2008 · build · 5% each Absorbed EU structural funds to upgrade motorways and logistics, while FDI and domestic policy deepened the automotive and engineering base. (Transport Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Investment Attraction & Projection, Advanced Education, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation)
2008–2013 · build · 2% each Managed the global financial crisis with fiscal consolidation and export-oriented industrial policy to restore competitiveness and employment. (Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Labour & Employment, Advanced Manufacturing)
2014–2019 · buy · 2% each After Russia's annexation of Crimea, raised defence spending and built cyber and digital-security capabilities while modernising land and air forces. (Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, Land Power, Air Power, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Artificial Intelligence)
2020–2026 · build · 5% each Used the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility and national budgets to strengthen pandemic response, energy security and strategic technologies, including a semiconductor push. (Health System Capability, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Energy Infrastructure, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Force Generation & Mobilisation)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The 1996 scores for frontier critical technologies are inferred from patchy post-communist R&D data and may overstate Czechia's position relative to Asian and US leaders. Defence and intelligence capabilities before NATO accession are hard to benchmark because much Soviet-era equipment was being retired and new doctrine was still forming. The policy periods simplify overlapping EU-funding and national programmes, but capture the main strategic shifts.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Czechia played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 11.89 to a median of 11.61 (−0.28), with 90 per cent of simulations between 11.59 and 11.62 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 30 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 30. Its base income is 423 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,263 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Transport Infrastructure (build, 237 credits, 18.7 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 155 credits, 12.2 per cent); Justice System & Fundamental Rights (build, 143 credits, 11.3 per cent); Trade Policy & Market Access (build, 143 credits, 11.3 per cent); Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls (build, 143 credits, 11.3 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 90 per cent, partner 10 per cent, buy 0 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.105, and the most repeated action appeared in 40 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, National Security; rounds 21 to 25, Human Capital; rounds 26 to 30, Human Capital [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −24.0 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −18.3 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −12.9 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.01; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.85; Financial System Depth & Access −2.37; Labour & Employment −2.28 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.71 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.54 points); Energy Infrastructure to Advanced Manufacturing (+0.39 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 32 (5th to 95th percentile 32 to 32), the median count of Tier 1 domains 3 (3 to 3) and the median tier rank 5; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 838 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: governance and integrity (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); trade and investment (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.117 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.117 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.812: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.017 and −0.003, for example 1998 build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls (21 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.352 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-cze/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 1) ends −0.02 from it, with 6 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 11.89 the model ends at 11.60, where the 2026 ratings put it at 11.51. Group scores miss by 1.52 points on average, against 1.08 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.41); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−2.18); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (+1.59) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.812	−58.7	−3.00
No shocks	+1.117	+75.4	+0.60
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	0.00	1998 build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls (21 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.004	−0.5	0.00	1998 build Transport Infrastructure (21 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.003	−0.4	0.00	1998 build Energy Infrastructure (21 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.006	−0.3	0.00	1998 build Trade Policy & Market Access (21 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00	1998 build Justice System & Fundamental Rights (21 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.352	+23.8	0.00	2020 S10 (-24.1 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.244	+16.9	0.00	2022 S03 (-18.3 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.244	+16.2	0.00	2008 S02 (-15.0 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−12.9
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−18.3
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	3.5	−7.7
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−24.0
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	8.0	+22.1

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	12.53	18.53 18.53 to 18.53	+6.00	5.92	143
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	12.67	18.52 18.52 to 18.53	+5.85	6.13	143
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.17	19.18 19.12 to 19.25	+5.01	6.02	237
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.42	17.60 17.46 to 17.68	+4.18	4.71	155
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.73	19.08 19.00 to 19.14	+3.35	4.42	143
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.18	6.83 6.81 to 6.85	+2.65	2.81	75
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	12.68	14.41 14.39 to 14.42	+1.73	2.60	25
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.41	16.78 16.69 to 16.93	+1.37	2.27	51
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.88	16.25 16.16 to 16.38	+1.37	2.58	109
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.01	15.86 15.84 to 15.88	+0.85	1.24	23
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	15.39	16.21 16.08 to 16.46	+0.82	2.05	41
Air Power	National Security	9.64	10.10 10.09 to 10.12	+0.46	1.19	25
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.26	15.35 15.33 to 15.38	+0.09	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.00	13.98 13.92 to 14.04	−0.02	0.23	5
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	13.71	13.68 13.55 to 13.75	−0.03	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.68	11.64 11.55 to 11.75	−0.04	1.02	25
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.56	11.46 11.32 to 11.67	−0.10	1.94	38
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	1.68 1.67 to 1.68	−0.21	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	10.07	9.86 9.75 to 9.95	−0.21	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	14.52	14.28 14.15 to 14.42	−0.24	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	4.43 4.42 to 4.44	−0.26	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.86	13.58 13.45 to 13.70	−0.28	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	4.95 4.93 to 4.96	−0.29	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	12.94	12.63 12.61 to 12.65	−0.31	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	4.19 4.18 to 4.20	−0.39	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	13.30	12.91 12.89 to 12.92	−0.39	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	15.21	14.80 14.78 to 14.80	−0.41	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.25	8.82 8.79 to 8.84	−0.43	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.80	12.37 12.37 to 12.38	−0.43	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.45	16.00 15.97 to 16.03	−0.45	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	8.51	7.98 7.97 to 7.98	−0.53	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	7.84	7.31 7.29 to 7.32	−0.53	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.69	9.07 9.06 to 9.08	−0.62	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	9.00 8.98 to 9.02	−0.63	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.58	8.91 8.90 to 8.94	−0.67	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.90	9.23 9.16 to 9.70	−0.67	0.18	3
Land Power	National Security	10.93	10.23 10.22 to 10.25	−0.70	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.94	12.24 12.20 to 12.26	−0.70	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.30	5.59 5.57 to 5.60	−0.71	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.98	15.26 15.21 to 15.29	−0.72	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.38	10.65 10.61 to 10.69	−0.73	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.27	13.54 13.50 to 13.57	−0.73	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	13.73	13.00 12.98 to 13.02	−0.73	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.52	10.75 10.74 to 10.75	−0.77	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	6.84 6.79 to 6.87	−0.77	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.80	11.01 10.86 to 11.10	−0.79	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.92	13.10 13.07 to 13.12	−0.82	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.35	9.50 9.43 to 9.57	−0.85	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	10.05	9.20 9.16 to 9.23	−0.85	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	12.48	11.59 11.56 to 11.63	−0.89	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.01	13.10 13.05 to 13.19	−0.91	1.12	25
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	9.74	8.80 8.76 to 8.83	−0.94	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.96	11.96 11.92 to 11.99	−1.00	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	12.62	11.62 11.59 to 11.67	−1.00	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.98	8.96 8.94 to 8.96	−1.02	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	14.56	13.51 13.47 to 13.55	−1.05	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	13.06	12.00 12.00 to 12.02	−1.06	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.30	12.21 12.20 to 12.24	−1.09	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.10	10.98 10.97 to 10.99	−1.12	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.05	12.93 12.84 to 13.03	−1.12	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.94	9.71 9.70 to 9.72	−1.23	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	14.44	13.09 13.03 to 13.12	−1.35	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	13.78	12.38 12.34 to 12.42	−1.40	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.00	8.58 8.56 to 8.60	−1.42	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	12.36 12.18 to 12.52	−1.43	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	12.08	10.57 10.49 to 10.70	−1.51	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.94	13.34 13.28 to 13.53	−1.60	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.25	9.60 9.57 to 9.62	−1.65	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.24	9.37 9.34 to 9.40	−1.87	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.75	9.70 9.63 to 9.77	−2.05	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.29	13.21 13.15 to 13.25	−2.08	0.02	1
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	13.26	10.14 10.09 to 10.21	−3.12	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.96 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 30; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.105; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.transport_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 40% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 1.3% since cycle-002 (11.76 to 11.61); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 1.4% since cycle-002 (850.06 to 838.23); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-cze. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Czechia (CZE)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Core disaster in year 1, Core disaster in year 6, Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 422.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.4 seconds in all; 1557 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.