Simulation 2
Czechia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 2: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.89 at the 1996 position, 11.61 in 2026; 91 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 2
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 24 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 21 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.61 (−0.28)
- From 11.89
- Rank by index
- 32
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizureCore disaster | 11.65 −0.243 |
| 1998 |
| 11.70 +0.048 | |
| 1999 |
| 11.76 +0.065 | |
| 2000 |
| 11.82 +0.057 | |
| 2001 |
| 11.87 +0.046 | |
| 2002 |
| Core disaster | 11.79 −0.079 |
| 2003 |
| 11.83 +0.043 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 11.97 +0.144 |
| 2005 |
| 12.13 +0.152 | |
| 2006 |
| 12.28 +0.157 | |
| 2007 |
| 12.33 +0.049 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.14 −0.197 |
| 2009 |
| 12.15 +0.019 | |
| 2010 |
| 12.16 +0.011 | |
| 2011 |
| 12.18 +0.011 | |
| 2012 |
| 12.18 +0.006 | |
| 2013 |
| 12.19 +0.005 | |
| 2014 |
| 12.19 +0.006 | |
| 2015 |
| 12.20 +0.005 | |
| 2016 |
| 12.20 +0.003 | |
| 2017 |
| 12.20 +0.001 | |
| 2018 |
| 12.20 +0.001 | |
| 2019 |
| 12.20 +0.001 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 11.86 −0.346 |
| 2021 |
| 11.85 −0.005 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 11.59 −0.261 |
| 2023 |
| 11.59 −0.004 | |
| 2024 |
| 11.59 0.000 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.60 +0.008 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.61 +0.012 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.812 | −58.7 | −3.00 |
| No shocks | +1.117 | +75.4 | +0.60 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.004 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.003 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.006 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.352 | +23.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.244 | +16.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.244 | +16.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.53 | 18.53 | +6.00 | +5.92 | 0.00 | +0.09 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 18.53 | +5.86 | +6.13 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.17 | 19.13 | +4.96 | +6.05 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.46 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.42 | 17.52 | +4.10 | +4.75 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 15.73 | 19.07 | +3.34 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.07 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 4.18 | 6.81 | +2.63 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.68 | 14.40 | +1.72 | +2.60 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.10 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.88 | 16.30 | +1.42 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.30 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.41 | 16.73 | +1.32 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.25 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 15.01 | 15.87 | +0.86 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −0.30 | −0.10 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 15.39 | 16.08 | +0.69 | +2.05 | 0.00 | −1.45 | +0.09 |
| Air Power | National Security | 9.64 | 10.09 | +0.45 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.04 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.26 | 15.33 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.56 | 11.60 | +0.04 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 11.68 | 11.71 | +0.03 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.31 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.92 | −0.08 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.02 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.07 | 9.92 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.31 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 13.71 | 13.53 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.22 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.86 | 13.67 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.40 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 1.89 | 1.68 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.90 | 9.68 | −0.22 | +0.52 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.03 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 4.43 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 12.94 | 12.63 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.93 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.52 | 14.18 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.24 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 13.30 | 12.92 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.03 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.58 | 4.19 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.06 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 15.21 | 14.81 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.03 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.25 | 8.82 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.16 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.45 | 16.02 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.13 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.80 | 12.37 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.51 | 7.98 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | 0.00 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 7.84 | 7.30 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 9.69 | 9.07 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.63 | 9.00 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 9.58 | 8.90 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.07 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.94 | 12.25 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.38 | 10.69 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.22 |
| Land Power | National Security | 10.93 | 10.23 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.02 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.30 | 5.58 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.05 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.98 | 15.26 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.17 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.73 | 12.99 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.14 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.80 | 11.06 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.38 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.27 | 13.50 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.18 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.52 | 10.75 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.01 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.61 | 6.83 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.21 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.48 | 11.63 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.08 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.92 | 13.07 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.06 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.05 | 9.15 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.01 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 9.74 | 8.82 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.06 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.35 | 9.42 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.30 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.01 | 13.05 | −0.96 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −1.85 | −0.23 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.96 | 11.99 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.13 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.62 | 11.63 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.11 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.98 | 8.96 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.01 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 13.06 | 12.02 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.02 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.56 | 13.49 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.20 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 13.30 | 12.20 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | 0.00 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 12.10 | 10.99 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | 0.00 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 10.94 | 9.72 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.03 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.05 | 12.82 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.40 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 14.44 | 13.11 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.03 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.79 | 12.43 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.12 | +0.76 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 13.78 | 12.39 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.03 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.94 | 13.54 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.41 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 8.60 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.07 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 12.08 | 10.51 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.33 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 9.60 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.24 | 9.34 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.12 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.29 | 13.25 | −2.04 | +0.07 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.18 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 11.75 | 9.70 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | +0.15 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 13.26 | 10.11 | −3.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −0.32 |
Seed 2 of experiment cycle-003.e4-cze. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.