Round 2020
Round 24 of 30 in simulation 3 of Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996: 10 actions, Severe pandemic and Regional war spillover, and the index −0.429 to 4.16.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2020 (the end of 2019) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 4.16 (−0.429)
- In: 4.59
- Rank by index
- 136
- In: 129
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 19
- In: 35
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.04 | 1.88 | −0.165 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5.26 | 4.74 | −0.518 | 9 → 11 |
| National Security | 4.50 | 4.00 | −0.500 | 8 → 9 |
| Human Capital | 5.51 | 5.23 | −0.282 | 15 → 16 |
| Information & Influence | 4.76 | 4.41 | −0.353 | 14 |
| Governance & Integrity | 6.08 | 5.65 | −0.427 | 19 |
| Financial Strength | 4.40 | 3.85 | −0.552 | 29 → 31 |
| Production & Innovation | 4.47 | 4.01 | −0.459 | 19 → 20 |
| Trade & Investment | 4.30 | 3.70 | −0.602 | 17 → 18 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2020: the credits, the scripted method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 92, plus 35 carried in. Maintenance 76. Spent 32 on actions (build 23, partner 9). 19 carried over.
- PartnerIndustrial & Sectoral Base2 credits for 0.13 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerTransport Infrastructure2 credits for 0.11 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerCommunications & Digital Infrastructure2 credits for 0.14 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerTrade Facilitation & Logistics2 credits for 0.24 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication2 credits for 0.23 levelsscripted_history
- BuildNational Resilience & Crisis Management5 credits for 0.27 levelsscripted_history
- BuildHealth System Capability5 credits for 0.23 levelsscripted_history
- BuildPopulation Health5 credits for 0.30 levelsscripted_history
- BuildLand Power5 credits for 0.17 levelsscripted_history
- BuildInternal Security & Order5 credits for 0.27 levelsscripted_history
- Shock: Severe pandemic S10. −8.6 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
- Shock: Regional war spillover S03. −22.8 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 9 to 11; National Security Tier 8 to 9; Human Capital Tier 15 to 16; Financial Strength Tier 29 to 31; Production & Innovation Tier 19 to 20; Trade & Investment Tier 17 to 18.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport Infrastructure | −0.94 | +0.11 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.02 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | −0.92 | +0.24 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.01 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | 0.00 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | 0.00 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.03 |