Round 2015
Round 19 of 30 in simulation 5 of Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996: 10 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.280 to 4.55.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2015 (the end of 2014) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 4.55 (−0.279)
- In: 4.83
- Rank by index
- 130
- In: 122
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 10
- In: 26
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.14 | 2.06 | −0.080 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5.43 | 5.10 | −0.331 | 10 |
| National Security | 4.67 | 4.51 | −0.161 | 8 |
| Human Capital | 5.88 | 5.56 | −0.313 | 14 → 15 |
| Information & Influence | 5.21 | 4.81 | −0.395 | 12 → 14 |
| Governance & Integrity | 6.27 | 6.03 | −0.246 | 19 |
| Financial Strength | 4.88 | 4.46 | −0.423 | 27 → 29 |
| Production & Innovation | 4.60 | 4.36 | −0.233 | 20 |
| Trade & Investment | 4.37 | 4.04 | −0.335 | 18 → 19 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2015: the credits, the scripted method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 99, plus 26 carried in. Maintenance 80. Spent 35 on actions (build 25, partner 10). 10 carried over.
- BuildEnergy Infrastructure5 credits for 0.24 levelsscripted_history
- BuildTransport Infrastructure5 credits for 0.22 levelsscripted_history
- BuildWater, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure5 credits for 0.23 levelsscripted_history
- BuildIndustrial & Sectoral Base5 credits for 0.30 levelsscripted_history
- BuildGovernment Effectiveness & Public Administration5 credits for 0.26 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerIndustrial & Sectoral Base2 credits for 0.15 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerTransport Infrastructure2 credits for 0.12 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerCommunications & Digital Infrastructure2 credits for 0.15 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerTrade Facilitation & Logistics2 credits for 0.26 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication2 credits for 0.26 levelsscripted_history
- Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −20.7 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Human Capital Tier 14 to 15; Information & Influence Tier 12 to 14; Financial Strength Tier 27 to 29; Trade & Investment Tier 18 to 19.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.01 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | 0.00 |
| Early Childhood Development | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.02 |
| Population Health | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.01 |