Median simulation · cycle-003.e4-rus

Simulation 30

Russia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 30: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.19 at the 1996 position, 11.32 in 2026; 142 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 30

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 14 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.32 (+0.14); From 11.19
Rank by index: 34; From 35
Domains at Tier 1: 4; From 1
Events: 9 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 41 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 41 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 41 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 27		11.27 +0.080
1998	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 41 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 41 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 41 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 41	Global funding seizure	11.27 +0.006
1999	Build Internal Security & Order 43 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 43 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 43 Build Resource Infrastructure 43 Build Energy Infrastructure 43	Regional war spillover	11.24 −0.029
2000	Build Internal Security & Order 46 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 46 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 46 Build Resource Infrastructure 46 Build Energy Infrastructure 46		11.32 +0.082
2001	Build Internal Security & Order 48 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 48 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 48 Build Resource Infrastructure 48 Build Energy Infrastructure 48		11.42 +0.097
2002	Build Internal Security & Order 49 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 49 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 49 Build Resource Infrastructure 49 Build Energy Infrastructure 49		11.54 +0.120
2003	Build Internal Security & Order 51 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 51 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 51 Build Resource Infrastructure 51 Build Energy Infrastructure 51		11.67 +0.131
2004	Build Resource Infrastructure 53 Build Energy Infrastructure 53 Build Advanced Education 53 Build Health System Capability 53 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 53		11.79 +0.122
2005	Build Resource Infrastructure 54 Build Energy Infrastructure 54 Build Advanced Education 54 Build Health System Capability 54 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 54		11.89 +0.097
2006	Build Resource Infrastructure 55 Build Energy Infrastructure 55 Build Advanced Education 55 Build Health System Capability 55 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55		11.97 +0.081
2007	Build Resource Infrastructure 56 Build Energy Infrastructure 56 Build Advanced Education 56 Build Health System Capability 56 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 56		12.05 +0.079
2008	Build Resource Infrastructure 56 Build Energy Infrastructure 56 Build Advanced Education 56 Build Health System Capability 56 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 56 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 56 Buy Advanced Education 56 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 56 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 56 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 56	Global funding seizureRegional war spillover	12.17 +0.115
2009	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 56 Buy Advanced Education 56 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 56 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 56 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 56		12.34 +0.171
2010	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 55 Buy Advanced Education 55 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 55 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 55 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 55		12.46 +0.125
2011	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 55 Buy Advanced Education 55 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 55 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 55 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 55		12.54 +0.077
2012	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 55 Buy Advanced Education 55 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 55 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 55 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 55 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55 Build Land Power 55 Build Air Power 55 Build Resource Infrastructure 55 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 55		12.61 +0.072
2013	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55 Build Land Power 55 Build Air Power 26		12.66 +0.050
2014	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55 Build Land Power 23	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	12.43 −0.234
2015	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 35		12.35 −0.078
2016	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 48 Build Land Power 1		12.24 −0.107
2017	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Transport Infrastructure 48 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 48 Build Population Health 12		12.26 +0.020
2018	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 54 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 32		12.30 +0.037
2019	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 54 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17		12.35 +0.049
2020	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 54 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14	Severe pandemic	11.99 −0.358
2021	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 54 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 54 Build Population Health 31		12.03 +0.040
2022	Build Land Power 52 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Air Power 52 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 44	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	11.61 −0.425
2023	Build Land Power 52 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Air Power 52 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3		11.44 −0.161
2024	Build Land Power 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Build Air Power 44 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 41		11.28 −0.161
2025	Build Land Power 43 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 43 Build Air Power 43 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 43 Build Resource Infrastructure 43		11.30 +0.021
2026	Build Land Power 49 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 49 Build Air Power 49 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 49 Build Resource Infrastructure 49		11.32 +0.020

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
Human Capital	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	11	9	7	5	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	18	17	11	11	10	8	7	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	7	7	8	8	8
Production & Innovation	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	6	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3
Trade & Investment	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	13	14	14	14

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.905	−223.6	−4.00
No shocks	+1.875	+124.7	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.7	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.7	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.004	−0.4	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.010	+0.9	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.563	+39.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.399	+27.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.300	+19.7	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	19.54	+13.27	+17.43	−2.46	+0.06
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	17.04	+12.30	+16.50	−4.20	0.00
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	19.99	+9.70	+18.23	−0.93	+0.18
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.69	19.92	+9.23	+12.74	−1.72	+0.58
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.24	18.19	+8.95	+10.13	−1.01	−0.16
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	18.89	+7.86	+11.40	−1.15	+0.99
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	16.30	+7.44	+11.19	−3.72	−0.03
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.98	19.93	+6.95	+9.11	−2.12	+1.03
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	17.72	+6.93	+9.37	−3.01	+0.57
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.62	18.40	+5.78	+9.74	−1.89	+0.35
Land Power	National Security	13.60	19.33	+5.73	+6.98	−1.37	+0.12
Air Power	National Security	12.40	17.88	+5.48	+6.92	−1.44	−0.01
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.01	19.42	+4.41	+11.22	−0.81	+0.49
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.78	19.16	+4.38	+5.49	−1.07	+1.38
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.57	18.81	+4.24	+8.21	−1.90	−0.44
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	10.60	+2.12	+2.92	−1.25	+0.46
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	10.11	+1.71	+3.13	−1.52	+0.09
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	10.21	+1.52	+4.88	−3.31	−0.04
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	10.87	+0.84	+2.36	−1.51	−0.01
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	15.83	16.66	+0.83	0.00	−1.51	+2.35
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	9.88	+0.75	+4.73	−4.43	+0.44
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	13.27	+0.42	0.00	−1.59	+2.00
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	12.58	+0.28	0.00	−1.80	+2.09
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	9.91	+0.03	0.00	−2.08	+2.11
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	20.00	20.00	0.00	+4.08	−1.94	−0.16
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.24	12.19	−0.05	0.00	−1.57	+1.52
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.19	13.99	−0.20	0.00	−1.30	+1.10
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.19	16.99	−0.20	0.00	−1.48	+1.27
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.26	11.94	−0.32	0.00	−1.02	+0.71
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	10.23	−0.77	0.00	−2.07	+1.30
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.80	11.76	−1.04	0.00	−1.01	−0.02
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	9.67	−1.10	0.00	−1.05	−0.06
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	12.42	11.24	−1.18	0.00	−2.00	+0.83
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.47	7.26	−1.21	0.00	−1.17	−0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	7.20	−1.24	0.00	−1.16	−0.08
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.89	7.62	−1.27	0.00	−1.21	−0.05
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.33	12.03	−1.30	0.00	−1.55	+0.25
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	20.00	18.60	−1.40	0.00	−1.40	0.00
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.87	−1.47	0.00	−1.60	+0.12
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.58	13.09	−1.49	0.00	−2.00	+0.51
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	13.21	11.68	−1.53	0.00	−2.36	+0.82
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.61	7.05	−1.56	0.00	−1.81	+0.25
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	18.43	−1.57	0.00	−1.75	+0.18
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	14.53	12.95	−1.58	0.00	−1.54	−0.04
Space Operations	National Security	18.94	17.35	−1.59	0.00	−1.43	−0.16
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.28	8.58	−1.70	0.00	−1.71	+0.01
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.06	9.29	−1.77	0.00	−1.60	−0.17
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.02	7.20	−1.82	0.00	−1.78	−0.04
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	9.97	−1.83	0.00	−2.45	+0.62
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.83	11.86	−1.97	0.00	−2.02	+0.05
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	5.58	−2.06	0.00	−1.96	−0.10
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	11.61	9.54	−2.07	0.00	−2.03	−0.03
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.53	−2.08	0.00	−2.09	+0.02
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	7.41	−2.09	0.00	−2.23	+0.14
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.33	−2.15	0.00	−2.02	−0.14
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.49	−2.25	0.00	−2.62	+0.36
Maritime Power	National Security	13.43	11.14	−2.29	0.00	−2.38	+0.09
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	6.43	−2.32	0.00	−2.44	+0.12
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	5.26	−2.33	0.00	−2.41	+0.08
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.02	6.57	−2.45	0.00	−2.51	+0.07
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	6.09	−2.48	0.00	−2.35	−0.13
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.56	9.98	−2.58	0.00	−2.98	+0.40
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.92	9.31	−2.61	0.00	−2.57	−0.05
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	10.51	7.74	−2.77	0.00	−3.45	+0.68
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	6.18	−2.84	0.00	−2.70	−0.14
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	6.42	−2.85	0.00	−3.74	+0.89
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.43	8.46	−2.97	0.00	−2.52	−0.45
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	8.83	−3.07	0.00	−3.53	+0.47
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	10.18	−3.15	0.00	−3.03	−0.12
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.07	5.44	−3.63	0.00	−3.36	−0.28
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	5.69	−3.65	0.00	−3.47	−0.17
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	6.02	−3.91	0.00	−3.71	−0.19
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.70	6.81	−4.89	0.00	−4.97	+0.09

Seed 30 of experiment cycle-003.e4-rus. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.