A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-rus

Simulation 14

Russia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 14: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.19 at the 1996 position, 11.29 in 2026; 135 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 14

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 30 (median simulation), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.29 (+0.10); From 11.19
Rank by index: 34; From 35
Domains at Tier 1: 4; From 1
Events: 9 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 41 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 41 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 41 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 27		11.27 +0.080
1998	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 41 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 41 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 41 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 41	Global funding seizure	11.27 +0.005
1999	Build Internal Security & Order 43 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 43 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 43 Build Resource Infrastructure 43 Build Energy Infrastructure 43	Regional war spillover	11.24 −0.029
2000	Build Internal Security & Order 46 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 46 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 46 Build Resource Infrastructure 46 Build Energy Infrastructure 46		11.32 +0.082
2001	Build Internal Security & Order 48 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 48 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 48 Build Resource Infrastructure 48 Build Energy Infrastructure 48		11.42 +0.098
2002	Build Internal Security & Order 49 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 49 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 49 Build Resource Infrastructure 49 Build Energy Infrastructure 49		11.54 +0.121
2003	Build Internal Security & Order 51 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 51 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 51 Build Resource Infrastructure 51 Build Energy Infrastructure 51		11.67 +0.132
2004	Build Resource Infrastructure 53 Build Energy Infrastructure 53 Build Advanced Education 53 Build Health System Capability 53 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 53		11.80 +0.123
2005	Build Resource Infrastructure 54 Build Energy Infrastructure 54 Build Advanced Education 54 Build Health System Capability 54 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 54		11.90 +0.100
2006	Build Resource Infrastructure 55 Build Energy Infrastructure 55 Build Advanced Education 55 Build Health System Capability 55 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55		11.98 +0.082
2007	Build Resource Infrastructure 56 Build Energy Infrastructure 56 Build Advanced Education 56 Build Health System Capability 56 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 56		12.06 +0.081
2008	Build Resource Infrastructure 56 Build Energy Infrastructure 56 Build Advanced Education 56 Build Health System Capability 56 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 56 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 56 Buy Advanced Education 56 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 56 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 56 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 56	Global funding seizureRegional war spillover	12.18 +0.117
2009	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 56 Buy Advanced Education 56 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 56 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 56 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 56		12.35 +0.170
2010	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 55 Buy Advanced Education 55 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 55 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 55 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 55		12.47 +0.127
2011	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 55 Buy Advanced Education 55 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 55 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 55 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 55		12.56 +0.082
2012	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 55 Buy Advanced Education 55 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 55 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 55 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 55 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55 Build Land Power 55 Build Air Power 55 Build Resource Infrastructure 55 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 55		12.64 +0.080
2013	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55 Build Land Power 55 Build Air Power 5		12.70 +0.059
2014	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 51	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	12.46 −0.231
2015	No actions		12.38 −0.080
2016	No actions		12.28 −0.109
2017	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Transport Infrastructure 48 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9		12.29 +0.016
2018	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 36		12.32 +0.032
2019	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 22		12.36 +0.040
2020	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 21	Severe pandemic	11.99 −0.372
2021	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 54 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 54 Build Population Health 0		12.02 +0.024
2022	Build Land Power 52 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Air Power 52 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 38	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	11.58 −0.436
2023	Build Land Power 52 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Air Power 52 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 16		11.42 −0.162
2024	Build Land Power 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Build Air Power 44 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 44 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		11.25 −0.165
2025	Build Land Power 43 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 43 Build Air Power 43 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 43 Build Resource Infrastructure 43		11.27 +0.016
2026	Build Land Power 49 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 49 Build Air Power 49 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 49 Build Resource Infrastructure 49		11.29 +0.020

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
Human Capital	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	11	9	7	5	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	18	17	11	11	10	8	7	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	7	7	8	8	8
Production & Innovation	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	6	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3
Trade & Investment	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	12	12	12	13	14	14	14

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.905	−223.6	−4.00
No shocks	+1.875	+124.7	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.7	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.7	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.004	−0.4	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.010	+0.9	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.563	+39.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.399	+27.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.300	+19.7	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	19.54	+13.27	+17.46	−0.01	−2.46	+0.01
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	17.25	+12.51	+16.69	−0.01	−4.20	+0.02
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	19.99	+9.70	+18.18	0.00	−0.93	+0.21
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.24	18.21	+8.97	+10.13	0.00	−1.02	−0.14
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.69	19.32	+8.63	+12.03	0.00	−1.73	+0.54
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	18.86	+7.83	+11.38	0.00	−1.15	+1.13
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	16.26	+7.40	+11.20	0.00	−3.72	−0.07
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	17.77	+6.98	+9.37	−0.01	−3.01	+0.62
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.98	18.83	+5.85	+6.47	0.00	−2.14	+1.53
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.62	18.42	+5.80	+9.80	0.00	−1.89	+0.24
Land Power	National Security	13.60	18.93	+5.33	+6.74	0.00	−1.40	−0.01
Air Power	National Security	12.40	17.40	+5.00	+6.45	0.00	−1.47	+0.02
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.78	19.16	+4.38	+5.47	0.00	−1.07	+1.61
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.01	19.38	+4.37	+11.19	0.00	−0.81	+0.53
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.57	18.86	+4.29	+8.23	0.00	−1.90	−0.39
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	15.83	18.81	+2.98	0.00	−0.01	−1.51	+4.49
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	10.10	+1.70	+3.13	0.00	−1.52	+0.09
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	10.21	+1.52	+4.88	0.00	−3.31	−0.05
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	10.90	+0.87	+2.37	0.00	−1.51	+0.01
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	12.99	+0.69	0.00	0.00	−1.80	+2.50
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	10.53	+0.65	0.00	0.00	−2.08	+2.73
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	9.75	+0.62	+4.73	0.00	−4.43	+0.32
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.24	12.36	+0.12	0.00	0.00	−1.57	+1.69
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	20.00	19.97	−0.03	+3.63	−0.01	−1.96	−0.13
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.19	17.15	−0.04	0.00	0.00	−1.48	+1.43
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.47	−0.38	0.00	0.00	−1.59	+1.21
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.19	13.74	−0.45	0.00	0.00	−1.31	+0.86
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.26	11.72	−0.54	0.00	0.00	−1.02	+0.49
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	7.89	−0.59	+0.02	0.00	−1.24	+0.64
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	12.42	11.69	−0.73	0.00	0.00	−2.00	+1.28
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	9.99	−1.01	0.00	0.00	−2.08	+1.07
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.80	11.78	−1.02	0.00	0.00	−1.01	0.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	9.64	−1.13	0.00	0.00	−1.05	−0.08
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.33	12.16	−1.17	0.00	0.00	−1.55	+0.38
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.47	7.23	−1.24	0.00	0.00	−1.17	−0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	7.19	−1.25	0.00	0.00	−1.16	−0.08
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.89	7.62	−1.27	0.00	0.00	−1.21	−0.06
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	20.00	18.62	−1.38	0.00	0.00	−1.40	+0.02
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.92	−1.42	0.00	0.00	−1.61	+0.19
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	18.56	−1.44	0.00	−0.01	−1.75	+0.31
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	13.21	11.71	−1.50	0.00	−0.01	−2.36	+0.85
Space Operations	National Security	18.94	17.43	−1.51	0.00	−0.01	−1.43	−0.08
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	14.53	12.98	−1.55	0.00	0.00	−1.55	−0.01
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.61	6.98	−1.63	0.00	0.00	−1.77	+0.15
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.28	8.64	−1.64	0.00	0.00	−1.72	+0.08
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.58	12.91	−1.67	0.00	0.00	−2.00	+0.34
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.06	9.36	−1.70	0.00	0.00	−1.60	−0.11
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.02	7.27	−1.75	0.00	0.00	−1.80	+0.05
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	9.89	−1.91	0.00	0.00	−2.45	+0.55
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.83	11.92	−1.91	0.00	0.00	−2.02	+0.12
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	11.61	9.65	−1.96	0.00	0.00	−2.03	+0.08
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	5.62	−2.02	0.00	0.00	−1.96	−0.06
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.56	−2.05	0.00	0.00	−2.10	+0.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.30	−2.18	0.00	0.00	−2.02	−0.17
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	7.27	−2.23	0.00	0.00	−2.23	0.00
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	6.48	−2.27	0.00	0.00	−2.46	+0.20
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	5.32	−2.27	0.00	0.00	−2.42	+0.16
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.41	−2.33	0.00	0.00	−2.61	+0.28
Maritime Power	National Security	13.43	11.08	−2.35	0.00	0.00	−2.38	+0.03
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	6.11	−2.46	0.00	0.00	−2.35	−0.10
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.56	10.08	−2.48	0.00	0.00	−2.98	+0.51
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.92	9.43	−2.49	0.00	0.00	−2.57	+0.08
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.02	6.51	−2.51	0.00	0.00	−2.52	+0.01
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	10.51	7.78	−2.73	0.00	0.00	−3.46	+0.73
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	6.19	−2.83	0.00	0.00	−2.71	−0.12
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	6.37	−2.90	0.00	0.00	−3.80	+0.91
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.43	8.43	−3.00	0.00	0.00	−2.52	−0.49
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	8.75	−3.15	0.00	0.00	−3.53	+0.39
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	10.13	−3.20	0.00	0.00	−3.03	−0.17
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.07	5.42	−3.65	0.00	0.00	−3.36	−0.29
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	5.60	−3.74	0.00	0.00	−3.46	−0.28
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	5.98	−3.95	0.00	0.00	−3.71	−0.24
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.70	7.03	−4.67	0.00	0.00	−5.04	+0.37

Seed 14 of experiment cycle-003.e4-rus. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.