E4 · cycle-003.e4-rus

Russia, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Russia decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Regional war spillover in year 3, Global funding seizure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 18, Trade bloc rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Trade bloc rupture in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 11.32 (+0.14); From 11.19; 11.29 to 11.34
Rank by index: 34; From 35; 34 to 34
Domains at Tier 1: 4; From 1; 4 to 4
Tier rank: 5; From 16; 5 to 5

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	11.19	11.29	11.32	11.34	higher
Rank by index	35	34	34	34	lower
Tier rank	16	5	5	5	lower
Domains at Tier 1	1	4	4	4	higher
Score sum	834.6	858.0	861.1	862.6	higher
Goal-weighted score	834.6	858.0	861.1	862.6	higher
Resilient score	834.6	860.6 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 74 per cent, buy took 21 per cent, partner took 6 per cent of the 6,734 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Russia actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 11.19; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 12.30; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 11.32; 11.17 to 11.45
Skill against persistence: −0.69; group error 3.62 against 2.14 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	11.02	12.63	12.30 12.1–12.4	−0.33	right
Strategic Infrastructure	12.66	14.31	14.03 13.8–14.2	−0.28	right
National Security	15.34	16.52	15.79 15.5–16.0	−0.73	right
Human Capital	12.18	11.93	14.82 14.7–15.0	+2.89	wrong
Information & Influence	12.13	13.49	9.95 9.9–10.0	−3.54	wrong
Governance & Integrity	9.18	8.57	10.91 10.8–11.0	+2.34	wrong
Financial Strength	8.60	11.05	9.08 9.0–9.2	−1.97	right
Production & Innovation	10.14	10.94	8.93 8.8–9.0	−2.01	wrong
Trade & Investment	9.42	11.26	6.07 6.0–6.2	−5.19	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 1 The Russian financial crisis brought sovereign default on domestic debt, ruble devaluation and a banking collapse.
1999 · S03 × 0.6 The Second Chechen War escalated into a prolonged internal conflict on Russian territory.
2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis hit Russia through collapsing oil prices, capital flight and a severe stock market fall.
2008 · S03 × 0.4 The Russo-Georgian War was a short regional conflict on Russia's borders.
2014 · S03 × 0.9 Russia annexed Crimea and fuelled war in Donbas, a major conflict on its borders with heavy military and economic consequences.
2014 · S01 × 0.8 Western sanctions and Russian countersanctions began to split Russia from Western trade, technology and financial networks.
2020 · S10 × 1 The COVID-19 pandemic produced high excess mortality and strained Russia's health system and economy.
2022 · S03 × 1.4 The full invasion of Ukraine became the largest war in Europe since 1945, with immense military and economic costs for Russia.
2022 · S01 × 1.2 Sweeping Western sanctions, export controls and financial isolation constituted a trade and financial bloc rupture far more severe than 2014.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–1998 · partner · 5% each The Yeltsin government attempted macroeconomic stabilisation, tax reform and bank restructuring under IMF programmes before the 1998 default undid much of it. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Financial System Depth & Access, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption)
1999–2003 · build · 5% each Putin's first term recentralised authority, restored federal tax capacity and used rising oil rents to rebuild energy and internal security infrastructure. (Internal Security & Order, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure)
2004–2008 · build · 5% each High oil revenues funded national projects in health and education and reinvestment in strategic missile forces and energy export capacity. (Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Advanced Education, Health System Capability, Strategic Strike & Missile Defence)
2008–2012 · buy · 5% each Medvedev's modernisation agenda and the Skolkovo project sought to import technology and revive innovation, though results proved limited. (Research Talent & Knowledge Creation, Advanced Education, Innovation & Commercialisation, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies)
2012–2016 · build · 5% each After Crimea and sanctions, the state prioritised military modernisation and import substitution in agriculture and defence industry. (Strategic Strike & Missile Defence, Land Power, Air Power, Resource Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)
2017–2021 · build · 5% each The 2018 national projects attempted digital economy, infrastructure and demographic improvements, though implementation lagged behind targets. (Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Digital & AI Competence, Transport Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Population Health)
2022–2026 · build · 5% each The invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions forced a war economy focused on military production, import substitution and energy export redirection. (Land Power, Strategic Strike & Missile Defence, Air Power, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Resource Infrastructure)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties concern how much Soviet-era capacity remained usable in 1996 after years of underfunding and collapse, especially in technology and infrastructure. Russian economic and military data for the 1990s are often unreliable or politically shaped, and mapping diffuse events like the Chechen wars and sanctions onto the event library requires judgement.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Russia played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 11.19 to a median of 11.32 (+0.14), with 90 per cent of simulations between 11.27 and 11.35 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 35 on the index against the frozen field, holds 1 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 16. Its base income is 825 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 6,688 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (build, 727 credits, 10.8 per cent); Resource Infrastructure (build, 671 credits, 10.0 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 511 credits, 7.6 per cent); Land Power (build, 355 credits, 5.3 per cent); Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (build, 345 credits, 5.1 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 74 per cent, buy 21 per cent, partner 6 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.066, and the most repeated action appeared in 50 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Governance & Integrity; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Human Capital; rounds 16 to 20, National Security; rounds 21 to 25, Human Capital; rounds 26 to 30, National Security [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 9 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S01 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −30.7 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −30.1 points each); S03 (120 firings in 30 simulations, −12.2 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Economic Leverage & Dependence −5.08; Monetary & Currency Capability −4.41; Semiconductors & Advanced Computing −4.18; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.78 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (+2.44 points); Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies to Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (+3.13 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+1.82 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 34 (5th to 95th percentile 34 to 34), the median count of Tier 1 domains 4 (4 to 4) and the median tier rank 5; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 861 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: governance and integrity (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); human capital (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.875 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.875 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −2.905: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.004 and +0.011, for example 2009 buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (56 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.563 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

move_without_shock (warn): largest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 4.11 points; 100% of simulations have one above 3.

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 11 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-rus/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 8) ends −0.05 from it, with 9 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 11.19 the model ends at 11.32, where the 2026 ratings put it at 12.30. Group scores miss by 3.62 points on average, against 2.14 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.69); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−5.19); furthest above: human capital (+2.89) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−2.905	−223.6	−4.00
No shocks	+1.875	+124.7	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.7	0.00	2009 buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (56 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.7	0.00	2009 buy Advanced Education (56 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+1.2	0.00	2009 buy Innovation & Commercialisation (56 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.004	−0.4	0.00	2009 buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (56 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.010	+0.9	0.00	2009 buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies (56 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.563	+39.2	0.00	2022 S01 (-36.9 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.399	+27.1	0.00	2020 S10 (-30.1 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.300	+19.7	0.00	2014 S01 (-24.2 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	22.0	−30.7
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	7.0	−7.1
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	14.8	−12.2
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−30.1

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	19.55 19.54 to 19.56	+13.28	17.44	540
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	16.77 16.54 to 17.00	+12.03	16.17	437
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	19.98 19.98 to 19.99	+9.69	18.29	263
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.24	18.22 18.18 to 18.25	+8.98	10.13	237
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.69	19.64 19.43 to 19.89	+8.95	12.34	428
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	18.90 18.84 to 18.95	+7.87	11.45	273
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	16.39 16.26 to 16.46	+7.53	11.19	320
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	17.76 17.61 to 17.85	+6.97	9.37	277
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.98	19.86 19.64 to 19.91	+6.88	8.02	243
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.62	18.43 18.38 to 18.47	+5.81	9.78	511
Land Power	National Security	13.60	19.21 18.47 to 19.36	+5.61	6.77	355
Air Power	National Security	12.40	17.96 17.25 to 18.43	+5.56	6.90	322
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.78	19.19 19.18 to 19.22	+4.41	5.58	277
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.01	19.39 19.35 to 19.43	+4.38	11.17	551
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.57	18.88 18.81 to 18.98	+4.31	8.25	671
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	15.83	17.78 16.65 to 18.66	+1.95	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	10.10 10.02 to 10.17	+1.70	3.13	68
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	10.21 10.20 to 10.23	+1.52	4.88	83
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	10.90 10.03 to 11.02	+0.87	2.27	53
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	13.00 12.55 to 13.38	+0.70	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	10.50 9.90 to 10.93	+0.62	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	9.75 9.56 to 9.90	+0.62	4.73	83
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	8.85 8.18 to 9.77	+0.37	1.06	15
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.93 12.50 to 13.33	+0.08	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	20.00	20.00 19.98 to 20.00	0.00	3.89	727
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.24	12.23 11.94 to 12.64	−0.01	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.19	16.99 16.56 to 17.49	−0.20	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.26	11.86 11.71 to 12.00	−0.40	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.19	13.76 13.58 to 14.00	−0.43	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	10.34 9.99 to 10.59	−0.66	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.80	11.79 11.76 to 11.82	−1.01	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	12.42	11.39 11.07 to 11.59	−1.03	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	9.64 9.62 to 9.67	−1.13	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.47	7.26 7.23 to 7.27	−1.21	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	7.21 7.19 to 7.23	−1.23	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.33	12.09 11.91 to 12.28	−1.24	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.89	7.62 7.61 to 7.64	−1.27	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	20.00	18.61 18.58 to 18.66	−1.39	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.88 6.84 to 6.94	−1.46	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	13.21	11.71 11.60 to 11.84	−1.50	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.61	7.10 6.98 to 7.18	−1.51	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	18.49 18.40 to 18.58	−1.51	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	18.94	17.41 17.35 to 17.47	−1.53	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	14.53	12.97 12.93 to 13.04	−1.56	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.58	12.92 12.74 to 13.06	−1.66	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.28	8.58 8.54 to 8.63	−1.70	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.06	9.34 9.30 to 9.38	−1.72	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.02	7.27 7.23 to 7.31	−1.75	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.83	11.90 11.87 to 11.95	−1.93	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	9.86 9.78 to 10.04	−1.94	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	11.61	9.63 9.56 to 9.68	−1.98	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.57 6.54 to 6.60	−2.04	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	5.53 5.48 to 5.60	−2.11	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	7.37 7.32 to 7.46	−2.13	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.28 8.24 to 8.33	−2.20	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	6.48 6.41 to 6.55	−2.27	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.46 7.37 to 7.57	−2.28	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	5.31 5.25 to 5.36	−2.28	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	13.43	11.12 11.07 to 11.17	−2.31	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	6.09 6.03 to 6.14	−2.48	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.02	6.52 6.46 to 6.58	−2.50	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.92	9.38 9.34 to 9.41	−2.54	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.56	9.98 9.86 to 10.09	−2.58	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	10.51	7.76 7.66 to 7.93	−2.75	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	6.19 6.16 to 6.22	−2.83	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	6.41 6.27 to 6.60	−2.86	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.43	8.45 8.38 to 8.54	−2.98	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	8.74 8.61 to 8.86	−3.16	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	10.14 10.10 to 10.21	−3.19	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.07	5.43 5.40 to 5.48	−3.64	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	5.66 5.62 to 5.70	−3.68	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	5.97 5.90 to 6.04	−3.96	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.70	7.17 6.96 to 7.41	−4.53	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.7e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 4.631 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 8.0e-07 points
warnmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 4.11 points; 100% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 11 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 35; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.066; most funded group hard.national_security.strategic_strike_and_missile_defence
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 50% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 1.7% since cycle-002 (11.13 to 11.32); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 1.0% since cycle-002 (852.70 to 861.08); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-rus. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Russia (RUS)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Regional war spillover in year 3, Global funding seizure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 18, Trade bloc rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Trade bloc rupture in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 825.3 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.9 seconds in all; 1563 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.