A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-rus

Simulation 3

Russia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.19 at the 1996 position, 11.34 in 2026; 142 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 30 (median simulation), 14 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.34 (+0.15); From 11.19
Rank by index: 34; From 35
Domains at Tier 1: 4; From 1
Events: 9 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 41 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 41 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 41 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 27		11.27 +0.080
1998	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 41 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 41 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 41 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 41	Global funding seizure	11.27 +0.005
1999	Build Internal Security & Order 43 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 43 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 43 Build Resource Infrastructure 43 Build Energy Infrastructure 43	Regional war spillover	11.24 −0.030
2000	Build Internal Security & Order 46 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 46 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 46 Build Resource Infrastructure 46 Build Energy Infrastructure 46		11.32 +0.081
2001	Build Internal Security & Order 48 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 48 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 48 Build Resource Infrastructure 48 Build Energy Infrastructure 48		11.42 +0.097
2002	Build Internal Security & Order 49 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 49 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 49 Build Resource Infrastructure 49 Build Energy Infrastructure 49		11.54 +0.120
2003	Build Internal Security & Order 51 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 51 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 51 Build Resource Infrastructure 51 Build Energy Infrastructure 51		11.67 +0.131
2004	Build Resource Infrastructure 53 Build Energy Infrastructure 53 Build Advanced Education 53 Build Health System Capability 53 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 53		11.79 +0.123
2005	Build Resource Infrastructure 54 Build Energy Infrastructure 54 Build Advanced Education 54 Build Health System Capability 54 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 54		11.89 +0.099
2006	Build Resource Infrastructure 55 Build Energy Infrastructure 55 Build Advanced Education 55 Build Health System Capability 55 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55		11.97 +0.082
2007	Build Resource Infrastructure 56 Build Energy Infrastructure 56 Build Advanced Education 56 Build Health System Capability 56 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 56		12.05 +0.080
2008	Build Resource Infrastructure 56 Build Energy Infrastructure 56 Build Advanced Education 56 Build Health System Capability 56 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 56 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 56 Buy Advanced Education 56 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 56 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 56 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 56	Global funding seizureRegional war spillover	12.17 +0.117
2009	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 56 Buy Advanced Education 56 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 56 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 56 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 56		12.34 +0.172
2010	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 55 Buy Advanced Education 55 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 55 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 55 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 55		12.47 +0.129
2011	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 55 Buy Advanced Education 55 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 55 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 55 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 55		12.55 +0.082
2012	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 55 Buy Advanced Education 55 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 55 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 55 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 55 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55 Build Land Power 55 Build Air Power 55 Build Resource Infrastructure 55 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 55		12.63 +0.077
2013	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 55 Build Land Power 55 Build Air Power 55 Build Resource Infrastructure 55 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7		12.69 +0.059
2014	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 56 Build Land Power 34	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	12.47 −0.223
2015	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 39		12.40 −0.070
2016	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 48		12.30 −0.100
2017	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Transport Infrastructure 48 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 48 Build Population Health 7		12.32 +0.021
2018	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 54 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 26		12.36 +0.037
2019	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 54 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9		12.40 +0.048
2020	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 54 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 4	Severe pandemic	12.04 −0.360
2021	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Digital & AI Competence 54 Build Transport Infrastructure 54 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 54 Build Population Health 15		12.07 +0.031
2022	Build Land Power 52 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Air Power 52 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 30	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	11.64 −0.430
2023	Build Land Power 52 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Air Power 50		11.48 −0.166
2024	Build Land Power 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Build Air Power 44 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 35		11.31 −0.167
2025	Build Land Power 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Build Air Power 44 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 44 Build Resource Infrastructure 44		11.32 +0.014
2026	Build Land Power 49 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 49 Build Air Power 49 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 49 Build Resource Infrastructure 49		11.34 +0.016

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
Human Capital	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	11	9	7	5	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	18	17	11	11	10	8	7	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	7	7	8	8	8
Production & Innovation	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	6	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3
Trade & Investment	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	9	9	9	10	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	13

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.905	−223.6	−4.00
No shocks	+1.875	+124.7	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.7	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.7	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.004	−0.4	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.010	+0.9	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.563	+39.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.399	+27.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.300	+19.7	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	19.56	+13.29	+17.45	−2.44	+0.02
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	16.78	+12.04	+16.13	−4.16	+0.07
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	19.98	+9.69	+18.30	−0.93	+0.17
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.69	19.83	+9.14	+12.57	−1.71	+0.48
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.24	18.19	+8.95	+10.13	−1.01	−0.17
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	18.91	+7.88	+11.46	−1.14	+1.03
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	16.43	+7.57	+11.19	−3.70	+0.09
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	17.83	+7.04	+9.38	−2.99	+0.66
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.98	19.84	+6.86	+8.07	−2.12	+1.94
Air Power	National Security	12.40	18.37	+5.97	+7.41	−1.39	−0.06
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.62	18.42	+5.80	+9.77	−1.88	+0.38
Land Power	National Security	13.60	19.39	+5.79	+7.16	−1.35	−0.01
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.78	19.19	+4.41	+5.50	−1.06	+1.29
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.57	18.96	+4.39	+8.46	−1.88	−0.49
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.01	19.40	+4.39	+11.11	−0.81	+0.78
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	10.16	+1.76	+3.13	−1.51	+0.14
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	10.22	+1.53	+4.88	−3.29	−0.05
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	15.83	17.04	+1.21	0.00	−1.50	+2.71
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	11.19	+1.16	+2.67	−1.49	−0.03
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	9.60	+1.12	+1.52	−1.28	+0.88
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	13.15	+0.85	0.00	−1.79	+2.64
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	9.93	+0.80	+4.73	−4.39	+0.46
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.89	+0.04	0.00	−1.58	+1.61
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	9.90	+0.02	0.00	−2.07	+2.08
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	20.00	20.00	0.00	+4.08	−1.93	−0.16
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.19	14.13	−0.06	0.00	−1.30	+1.24
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.24	12.15	−0.09	0.00	−1.56	+1.48
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.26	11.92	−0.34	0.00	−1.01	+0.68
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	10.51	−0.49	0.00	−2.06	+1.58
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.19	16.46	−0.73	0.00	−1.47	+0.73
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	12.42	11.61	−0.81	0.00	−1.99	+1.18
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.80	11.81	−0.99	0.00	−1.01	+0.02
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.33	12.25	−1.08	0.00	−1.54	+0.46
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	9.61	−1.16	0.00	−1.04	−0.12
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.47	7.27	−1.20	0.00	−1.16	−0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	7.21	−1.23	0.00	−1.15	−0.07
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.89	7.64	−1.25	0.00	−1.21	−0.04
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	20.00	18.64	−1.36	0.00	−1.39	+0.03
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.87	−1.47	0.00	−1.58	+0.12
Space Operations	National Security	18.94	17.39	−1.55	0.00	−1.42	−0.13
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	18.44	−1.56	0.00	−1.74	+0.17
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	14.53	12.97	−1.56	0.00	−1.53	−0.03
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	13.21	11.61	−1.60	0.00	−2.34	+0.74
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.58	12.94	−1.64	0.00	−1.98	+0.34
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.28	8.62	−1.66	0.00	−1.70	+0.04
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.61	6.93	−1.68	0.00	−1.76	+0.08
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.06	9.35	−1.71	0.00	−1.59	−0.13
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.02	7.24	−1.78	0.00	−1.78	0.00
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.83	11.90	−1.93	0.00	−2.00	+0.07
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	11.61	9.67	−1.94	0.00	−2.02	+0.08
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	9.78	−2.02	0.00	−2.43	+0.42
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.56	−2.05	0.00	−2.09	+0.03
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	7.44	−2.06	0.00	−2.22	+0.15
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	5.52	−2.12	0.00	−1.93	−0.18
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.30	−2.18	0.00	−2.00	−0.18
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.50	−2.24	0.00	−2.60	+0.36
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	6.48	−2.27	0.00	−2.44	+0.18
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	5.31	−2.28	0.00	−2.40	+0.12
Maritime Power	National Security	13.43	11.10	−2.33	0.00	−2.37	+0.03
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.56	10.15	−2.41	0.00	−2.96	+0.55
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	6.03	−2.54	0.00	−2.33	−0.20
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.02	6.47	−2.55	0.00	−2.50	−0.06
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.92	9.34	−2.58	0.00	−2.55	−0.04
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	6.20	−2.82	0.00	−2.69	−0.13
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	10.51	7.63	−2.88	0.00	−3.39	+0.52
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	6.39	−2.88	0.00	−3.80	+0.92
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.43	8.52	−2.91	0.00	−2.50	−0.40
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	8.85	−3.05	0.00	−3.50	+0.46
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	10.12	−3.21	0.00	−3.00	−0.20
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.07	5.44	−3.63	0.00	−3.33	−0.30
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	5.67	−3.67	0.00	−3.44	−0.22
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	6.06	−3.87	0.00	−3.69	−0.18
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.70	7.28	−4.42	0.00	−5.11	+0.70

Seed 3 of experiment cycle-003.e4-rus. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.