E4 · cycle-003.e4-sau

Saudi Arabia, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Saudi Arabia decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Regional war spillover in year 7, Global funding seizure in year 12, Legitimacy rupture in year 15, Global funding seizure in year 18, Regional war spillover in year 19, Hybrid coercion in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24, Global funding seizure in year 24, Middle East settlement in year 27.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 11.18 (+0.15); From 11.02; 11.16 to 11.19
Rank by index: 35; From 35; 35 to 35
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0; 0 to 1
Tier rank: 13; From 20; 13 to 19

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	11.02	11.16	11.18	11.19	higher
Rank by index	35	35	35	35	lower
Tier rank	20	13	13	19	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	1	1	higher
Score sum	787.0	801.7	802.3	802.9	higher
Goal-weighted score	787.0	801.7	802.3	802.9	higher
Resilient score	787.0	802.3 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 31 per cent, buy took 24 per cent, partner took 45 per cent of the 2,432 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Saudi Arabia actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 11.02; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 11.19; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 11.18; 11.12 to 11.23
Skill against persistence: −0.82; group error 2.26 against 1.24 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	5.92	6.33	7.68 7.6–7.7	+1.35	right
Strategic Infrastructure	13.14	13.47	12.64 12.6–12.7	−0.82	wrong
National Security	10.27	10.38	10.23 10.2–10.3	−0.15	right
Human Capital	11.04	11.74	11.47 11.4–11.5	−0.27	right
Information & Influence	12.52	12.30	11.10 11.1–11.2	−1.20	wrong
Governance & Integrity	9.24	9.26	8.46 8.4–8.5	−0.81	wrong
Financial Strength	14.07	13.54	13.62 13.6–13.7	+0.07	right
Production & Innovation	10.37	11.11	9.88 9.8–9.9	−1.23	wrong
Trade & Investment	12.63	12.60	15.50 15.3–15.7	+2.90	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 0.4 The 1998 oil price collapse after the Asian crisis cut state oil revenues sharply and forced fiscal retrenchment; the riyal peg held and no sovereign funding seizure occurred, but budgets were strained.
2003 · S03 × 0.3 The US-led invasion of Iraq brought regional instability and security concerns to Saudi borders, though no Saudi sea routes were closed.
2008 · S02 × 0.4 The global financial crisis and oil price fall from mid-2008 compressed oil revenue and credit, but Saudi banks had limited exposure and the peg was maintained.
2011 · S05 × 0.4 Arab Spring unrest and Shia protests in the Eastern Province posed a short legitimacy challenge; the monarchy responded with repression and a large social spending package.
2014 · S02 × 0.7 The 2014-16 oil price crash halved oil revenue, opened large fiscal deficits, and forced cuts to subsidies and capital spending.
2015 · S03 × 0.8 Saudi Arabia's military intervention in Yemen and subsequent Houthi cross-border missile and drone attacks constituted a prolonged regional war on its southern border.
2019 · S04 × 0.9 The September 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais attack, attributed to Iran, temporarily disabled about half of Saudi oil processing capacity, an infrastructure blackout-like shock.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 COVID-19 stressed Saudi health capacity and imposed lockdowns that curtailed Hajj, services and non-oil activity.
2020 · S02 × 0.6 The March 2020 oil price war and pandemic demand collapse combined to push oil prices briefly below zero and forced deep fiscal adjustment.
2023 · S14 × 0.4 The China-brokered Saudi-Iran détente in 2023 lowered bilateral regional security tension and restored diplomatic access.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2005 · buy · 5% each Saudi Arabia sustained high defence procurement and oil-sector investment while pursuing WTO accession and fiscal consolidation after the 1998 oil price fall. (Air Power, Strategic Strike & Missile Defence, Resource Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
2003–2009 · build · 5% each Windfall oil revenues funded a domestic infrastructure and human capital build-out, including new universities, hospitals, transport and desalination capacity. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Advanced Education, Health System Capability, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure)
2009–2015 · build · 2% each King Abdullah's education and research push expanded scholarships, KAUST, economic cities, digital government and energy infrastructure. (Advanced Education, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation, Social Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure)
2016–2020 · partner · 5% each Vision 2030 launched a flagship national diversification effort relying on PIF capital, foreign partnerships, tourism and defence industrial localisation. (Industrial & Sectoral Base, Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power, Investment Attraction & Projection, Digital & Services Trade, Force Generation & Mobilisation)
2020–2023 · build · 2% each COVID-19 forced rapid strengthening of health system capacity, digital government delivery, fiscal adjustment and public health. (Health System Capability, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Population Health)
2021–2026 · partner · 5% each Saudi Arabia accelerated frontier bets in AI, hydrogen, advanced manufacturing, logistics and tourism mega-projects through foreign partnerships and sovereign investment. (Artificial Intelligence, Energy Technologies, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Export Capability & Sophistication)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The greatest uncertainty is converting Saudi Arabia's oil-export strength, foreign labour dependence and imported military capability into the framework's capability scores; many civilian technology and governance scores are judgement-based. The weighting of hidden internal security, royal factional and religious influence is hard to specify from open sources. Defence procurement and Vision 2030 partnerships are documented, but actual domestic capacity gains are frequently overstated in official narratives.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Saudi Arabia played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 11.02 to a median of 11.17 (+0.15), with 90 per cent of simulations between 11.16 and 11.19 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 35 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 20. Its base income is 455 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 2,431 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Air Power (buy, 209 credits, 8.6 per cent); Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (buy, 204 credits, 8.4 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 192 credits, 7.9 per cent); Resource Infrastructure (buy, 180 credits, 7.4 per cent); Trade Policy & Market Access (build, 161 credits, 6.6 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: partner 45 per cent, build 31 per cent, buy 24 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.055, and the most repeated action appeared in 37 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, National Security; rounds 6 to 10, National Security; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Trade & Investment; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 9 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S04 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −20.6 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −19.2 points each); S03 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −17.2 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.91; Maritime Power −2.53; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.50; Investment Attraction & Projection −2.47 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Investment Attraction & Projection to Resource Infrastructure (+0.68 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.18 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+0.16 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 35 (5th to 95th percentile 35 to 35), the median count of Tier 1 domains 1 (0 to 1) and the median tier rank 13; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 802 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: strategic infrastructure (0 to 60 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +0.385 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.385 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.765: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between +0.036 and +0.058, for example 2004 buy Air Power (24 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.187 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-sau/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 13) ends +0.02 from it, with 9 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 11.02 the model ends at 11.17, where the 2026 ratings put it at 11.19. Group scores miss by 2.26 points on average, against 1.24 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.82); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: production and innovation (−1.23); furthest above: trade and investment (+2.90) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.765	−128.6	−0.60
No shocks	+0.385	+24.6	+2.40
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.056	+4.6	+0.30	2004 buy Air Power (24 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.036	+3.2	0.00	2004 buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (24 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.051	+4.3	+0.20	2005 buy Air Power (24 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.058	+4.9	+0.10	2003 buy Air Power (24 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.039	+3.5	−0.10	2003 buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (24 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.019	+3.5	+0.40	2015 S03 (-25.1 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.075	+6.6	+0.40	2019 S04 (-20.6 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.187	+13.3	+0.10	2020 S10 (-19.3 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	14.0	−4.1
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	13.0	−17.2
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	100 per cent	23.0	−20.6
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	15.0	−11.8
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−19.2
Middle East settlement S14	Upside	100 per cent	27.0	+10.9

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.44	13.42 13.38 to 13.44	+7.98	8.53	138
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	14.94 14.91 to 14.97	+7.60	8.42	138
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	9.00	15.24 15.19 to 15.27	+6.24	7.13	138
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.25	18.27 18.26 to 18.27	+6.02	7.87	115
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	17.84 17.81 to 17.89	+5.31	6.92	162
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	11.06	16.36 16.30 to 16.39	+5.30	7.76	204
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.79	18.07 18.04 to 18.10	+5.28	7.87	115
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.03	17.63 17.19 to 18.15	+4.60	7.41	109
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	12.68	16.19 16.14 to 16.26	+3.51	5.30	115
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.73	17.99 17.94 to 18.03	+3.26	4.54	115
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.50	14.61 14.59 to 14.62	+3.11	3.58	57
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	10.78	13.56 13.11 to 13.91	+2.78	4.38	50
Air Power	National Security	15.72	18.40 18.35 to 18.46	+2.68	4.25	209
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.50	10.84 10.68 to 10.93	+2.34	2.41	40
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	15.46	17.11 17.07 to 17.22	+1.65	4.51	192
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.77	15.22 15.19 to 15.30	+1.45	2.74	74
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.03	14.92 14.83 to 15.02	+0.89	2.20	63
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.67	19.37 19.09 to 19.58	+0.70	1.72	180
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.24	14.92 14.88 to 14.95	+0.68	1.42	37
Population Health	Human Capital	13.38	13.82 13.80 to 13.84	+0.44	1.29	27
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.10	12.48 12.45 to 12.51	+0.38	1.79	27
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.05	13.38 13.34 to 13.42	+0.33	1.45	38
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.16	13.47 13.41 to 13.52	+0.31	1.69	38
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.24 0.22 to 0.25	+0.24	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.63	12.64 12.59 to 12.67	+0.01	1.67	37
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	3.17 3.12 to 3.21	−0.27	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.51	2.20 2.18 to 2.21	−0.31	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	9.92 9.87 to 9.96	−0.37	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.64	5.25 5.12 to 5.33	−0.39	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.27	8.82 8.80 to 8.84	−0.45	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	3.08 3.07 to 3.10	−0.45	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	7.77 7.75 to 7.78	−0.48	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.09	4.59 4.58 to 4.60	−0.50	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	6.48 6.46 to 6.50	−0.54	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.95	12.31 12.29 to 12.34	−0.64	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.55	5.88 5.87 to 5.90	−0.67	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	5.95	5.21 5.17 to 5.24	−0.74	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	4.42 4.40 to 4.44	−0.76	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.10	8.33 8.32 to 8.33	−0.77	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.97	10.19 10.17 to 10.21	−0.78	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.04	7.20 7.13 to 7.27	−0.84	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.94	12.02 11.90 to 12.16	−0.92	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	8.13 8.10 to 8.17	−0.94	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	7.39	6.44 6.41 to 6.47	−0.95	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	7.41 7.40 to 7.43	−1.02	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	8.91	7.87 7.80 to 7.95	−1.04	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.45	7.40 7.35 to 7.42	−1.05	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.37	8.23 8.20 to 8.25	−1.14	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.14	14.00 13.94 to 14.04	−1.14	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.17	9.00 8.88 to 9.11	−1.17	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	11.30	10.12 10.08 to 10.15	−1.18	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	12.07 12.03 to 12.12	−1.26	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	13.60	12.33 12.29 to 12.37	−1.27	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.42	9.08 9.06 to 9.11	−1.34	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.02	11.67 11.57 to 11.84	−1.35	0.58	16
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	15.58	14.21 14.14 to 14.28	−1.37	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.90	8.43 8.39 to 8.49	−1.47	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	7.99 7.96 to 8.02	−1.53	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.59	10.04 9.98 to 10.08	−1.55	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.10 7.08 to 7.14	−1.62	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.64	13.00 12.90 to 13.06	−1.64	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.13	11.48 11.44 to 11.52	−1.65	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	14.88	13.17 13.11 to 13.21	−1.71	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.28	11.42 11.40 to 11.44	−1.86	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	14.55	12.69 12.62 to 12.75	−1.86	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.19	11.30 11.28 to 11.33	−1.89	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	9.90 9.87 to 9.93	−1.90	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	7.08 7.06 to 7.10	−1.94	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.77	10.80 10.78 to 10.83	−1.97	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.20	11.18 11.15 to 11.21	−2.02	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.95	7.74 7.72 to 7.78	−2.21	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	11.00	8.61 8.58 to 8.63	−2.39	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	17.12	14.69 14.63 to 14.75	−2.43	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.7e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.86 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 35; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.055; most funded group hard.national_security.air_power
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 37% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 0.5% since cycle-002 (11.24 to 11.17); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 0.7% since cycle-002 (807.91 to 802.34); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-sau. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Saudi Arabia (SAU)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Regional war spillover in year 7, Global funding seizure in year 12, Legitimacy rupture in year 15, Global funding seizure in year 18, Regional war spillover in year 19, Hybrid coercion in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24, Global funding seizure in year 24, Middle East settlement in year 27
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 454.9 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.0 seconds in all; 1719 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.