Simulation 30
Saudi Arabia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 30: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.02 at the 1996 position, 11.18 in 2026; 140 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 30
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.18 (+0.15)
- From 11.02
- Rank by index
- 35
- From 35
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 9 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 11.05 +0.027 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.05 +0.004 |
| 1999 |
| 11.11 +0.054 | |
| 2000 |
| 11.16 +0.051 | |
| 2001 |
| 11.21 +0.048 | |
| 2002 |
| 11.25 +0.043 | |
| 2003 |
| Regional war spillover | 11.16 −0.090 |
| 2004 |
| 11.19 +0.028 | |
| 2005 |
| 11.20 +0.016 | |
| 2006 |
| 11.21 +0.011 | |
| 2007 |
| 11.22 +0.004 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.18 −0.042 |
| 2009 |
| 11.18 +0.006 | |
| 2010 |
| 11.19 +0.004 | |
| 2011 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 11.02 −0.165 |
| 2012 |
| 11.03 +0.007 | |
| 2013 |
| 11.04 +0.010 | |
| 2014 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.97 −0.068 |
| 2015 |
| Regional war spillover | 10.64 −0.329 |
| 2016 |
| 10.70 +0.058 | |
| 2017 |
| 10.80 +0.101 | |
| 2018 |
| 10.89 +0.094 | |
| 2019 |
| Hybrid coercion | 10.70 −0.191 |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicGlobal funding seizure | 10.43 −0.271 |
| 2021 |
| 10.52 +0.092 | |
| 2022 |
| 10.62 +0.100 | |
| 2023 |
| Middle East settlement | 10.76 +0.139 |
| 2024 |
| 10.91 +0.150 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.08 +0.170 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.18 +0.093 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| Financial Strength | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.765 | −128.6 | −0.60 |
| No shocks | +0.385 | +24.6 | +2.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.056 | +4.6 | +0.30 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.036 | +3.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.051 | +4.3 | +0.20 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.058 | +4.9 | +0.10 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.039 | +3.5 | −0.10 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.019 | +3.5 | +0.40 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.075 | +6.6 | +0.40 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.187 | +13.3 | +0.10 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.44 | 13.42 | +7.98 | +8.54 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.09 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.34 | 14.96 | +7.62 | +8.42 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.05 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.00 | 15.24 | +6.24 | +7.14 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.18 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.25 | 18.27 | +6.02 | +7.88 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 12.53 | 17.89 | +5.36 | +6.92 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.14 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 11.06 | 16.35 | +5.29 | +7.76 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.18 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.79 | 18.06 | +5.27 | +7.88 | 0.00 | −2.38 | −0.23 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.03 | 17.40 | +4.37 | +7.09 | 0.00 | −2.82 | +0.09 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 12.68 | 16.15 | +3.47 | +5.30 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.35 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.73 | 17.97 | +3.24 | +4.54 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.09 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.50 | 14.61 | +3.11 | +3.58 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.01 |
| Air Power | National Security | 15.72 | 18.36 | +2.64 | +4.25 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.28 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 10.78 | 13.35 | +2.57 | +4.30 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.04 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 8.50 | 10.82 | +2.32 | +2.40 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.38 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 15.46 | 17.21 | +1.75 | +4.51 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.34 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.77 | 15.20 | +1.43 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.04 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.03 | 15.00 | +0.97 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.25 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.67 | 19.54 | +0.87 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.84 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.24 | 14.92 | +0.68 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.09 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.38 | 13.84 | +0.46 | +1.29 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.11 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 12.10 | 12.47 | +0.37 | +1.79 | 0.00 | −1.48 | +0.06 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.16 | 13.49 | +0.33 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −1.52 | +0.15 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.05 | 13.34 | +0.29 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.24 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 12.63 | 12.65 | +0.02 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.44 | 3.15 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.14 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.51 | 2.18 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.29 | 9.94 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.18 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.27 | 8.85 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.06 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.64 | 5.20 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.23 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.53 | 3.07 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.03 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 7.78 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 5.09 | 4.60 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.04 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.02 | 6.47 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.08 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 12.95 | 12.34 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.10 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.55 | 5.89 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.10 | 8.33 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.02 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.97 | 10.20 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.01 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 5.95 | 5.17 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.08 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.18 | 4.39 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.17 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.94 | 12.10 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.47 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.04 | 7.17 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.28 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.39 | 6.44 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.07 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.07 | 8.10 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.22 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 8.43 | 7.40 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.03 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.91 | 7.87 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.25 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.45 | 7.36 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.11 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.17 | 9.05 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.06 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.14 | 14.01 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.02 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.37 | 8.23 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 13.33 | 12.12 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.10 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 11.30 | 10.09 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.17 |
| Land Power | National Security | 13.60 | 12.34 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | 0.00 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.42 | 9.11 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.11 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.02 | 11.65 | −1.37 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.06 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 15.58 | 14.14 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.18 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 9.90 | 8.43 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | +0.24 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.59 | 10.09 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.10 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 8.02 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.15 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.72 | 7.14 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.08 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.64 | 13.00 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.32 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 14.88 | 13.23 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.13 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.13 | 11.48 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.15 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 13.28 | 11.44 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 14.55 | 12.70 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.12 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.19 | 11.33 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.09 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.80 | 9.92 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.03 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.02 | 7.06 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.77 | 10.79 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.16 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 13.20 | 11.19 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | +0.01 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 9.95 | 7.74 | −2.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 11.00 | 8.61 | −2.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.34 | −0.05 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 17.12 | 14.69 | −2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | −0.13 |
Seed 30 of experiment cycle-003.e4-sau. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.