A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-sau

Simulation 1

Saudi Arabia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.02 at the 1996 position, 11.16 in 2026; 140 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 1

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 30 (median simulation), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.16 (+0.14); From 11.02
Rank by index: 35; From 35
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0
Events: 9 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Buy Air Power 23 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 23 Buy Resource Infrastructure 23 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23		11.05 +0.027
1998	Buy Air Power 23 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 23 Buy Resource Infrastructure 23 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23	Global funding seizure	11.05 +0.004
1999	Buy Air Power 23 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 23 Buy Resource Infrastructure 23 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23		11.11 +0.054
2000	Buy Air Power 23 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 23 Buy Resource Infrastructure 23 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23		11.16 +0.051
2001	Buy Air Power 23 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 23 Buy Resource Infrastructure 23 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23		11.20 +0.048
2002	Buy Air Power 23 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 23 Buy Resource Infrastructure 23 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23		11.25 +0.042
2003	Buy Air Power 24 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 24 Buy Resource Infrastructure 24 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 24 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 24 Build Transport Infrastructure 24 Build Energy Infrastructure 4	Regional war spillover	11.16 −0.090
2004	Buy Air Power 24 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 24 Buy Resource Infrastructure 19		11.18 +0.027
2005	Buy Air Power 24 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 18		11.20 +0.016
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 20		11.21 +0.011
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 9		11.21 +0.004
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 9	Global funding seizure	11.17 −0.042
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 11		11.18 +0.005
2010	Build Advanced Education 10 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 1		11.18 +0.004
2011	Build Advanced Education 10 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 1	Legitimacy rupture	11.02 −0.166
2012	Build Advanced Education 10 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 10 Build Social Infrastructure 10 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Infrastructure 2		11.02 +0.007
2013	Build Advanced Education 9 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 9 Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 2		11.03 +0.010
2014	Build Advanced Education 9 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 9 Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 2	Global funding seizure	10.96 −0.069
2015	Build Advanced Education 9 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 9 Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 5	Regional war spillover	10.63 −0.329
2016	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 23 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 23 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 23 Partner Digital & Services Trade 23 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 8		10.69 +0.058
2017	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 23 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 23 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 23 Partner Digital & Services Trade 23 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 10		10.79 +0.101
2018	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 23 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 23 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 23 Partner Digital & Services Trade 23 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 10		10.89 +0.094
2019	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 23 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 23 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 23 Partner Digital & Services Trade 23 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 9	Hybrid coercion	10.70 −0.191
2020	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 23 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 23 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 23 Partner Digital & Services Trade 23 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 23 Build Health System Capability 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2	Severe pandemicGlobal funding seizure	10.43 −0.272
2021	Build Health System Capability 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Population Health 9 Partner Artificial Intelligence 23 Partner Energy Technologies 23 Partner Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 23 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 23 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 1		10.52 +0.090
2022	Build Health System Capability 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Population Health 9 Partner Artificial Intelligence 23 Partner Energy Technologies 23 Partner Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 23 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14		10.61 +0.099
2023	Build Health System Capability 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Population Health 9 Partner Artificial Intelligence 23 Partner Energy Technologies 23 Partner Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 23 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6	Middle East settlement	10.75 +0.137
2024	Partner Artificial Intelligence 23 Partner Energy Technologies 23 Partner Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 23 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 23 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 23		10.90 +0.148
2025	Partner Artificial Intelligence 24 Partner Energy Technologies 24 Partner Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 24 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 24 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 24		11.07 +0.169
2026	Partner Artificial Intelligence 24 Partner Energy Technologies 24 Partner Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 24 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 12		11.16 +0.093

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	4
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1
National Security	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Information & Influence	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	13	14	14	14	14	13	13	12
Financial Strength	6	6	5	5	5	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	5	5	5	5	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2
Production & Innovation	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	11	10	10	9	6	4	3	3	3	3	3	3
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.765	−128.6	−0.60
No shocks	+0.385	+24.6	+2.40
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.056	+4.6	+0.30
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.036	+3.2	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.051	+4.3	+0.20
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.058	+4.9	+0.10
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.039	+3.5	−0.10
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.019	+3.5	+0.40
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.075	+6.6	+0.40
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.187	+13.3	+0.10

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.44	13.39	+7.95	+8.52	−0.65	+0.08
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	14.88	+7.54	+8.44	−0.85	−0.06
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	9.00	15.24	+6.24	+7.12	−1.07	+0.20
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.25	18.24	+5.99	+7.86	−1.83	−0.04
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	17.84	+5.31	+6.92	−1.43	−0.19
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.79	18.09	+5.30	+7.86	−2.38	−0.18
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	11.06	16.30	+5.24	+7.76	−2.29	−0.23
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.03	17.34	+4.31	+7.11	−2.82	+0.01
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	12.68	16.20	+3.52	+5.29	−1.49	−0.28
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.73	18.00	+3.27	+4.55	−1.39	+0.11
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.50	14.61	+3.11	+3.57	−0.47	0.00
Air Power	National Security	15.72	18.48	+2.76	+4.25	−1.34	−0.16
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	10.78	13.54	+2.76	+4.28	−1.78	+0.26
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.50	10.83	+2.33	+2.41	−0.47	+0.38
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	15.46	17.03	+1.57	+4.49	−2.41	−0.51
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.77	15.21	+1.44	+2.75	−1.35	+0.04
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.03	14.83	+0.80	+2.08	−1.50	+0.21
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.67	19.38	+0.71	+1.72	−1.63	+0.69
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.24	14.89	+0.65	+1.42	−0.83	+0.06
Population Health	Human Capital	13.38	13.82	+0.44	+1.29	−0.72	−0.12
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.10	12.44	+0.34	+1.79	−1.48	+0.03
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.05	13.34	+0.29	+1.46	−1.21	+0.04
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.16	13.42	+0.26	+1.69	−1.52	+0.09
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.25	+0.25	0.00	+0.17	+0.08
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.63	12.66	+0.03	+1.66	−1.65	+0.02
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	3.15	−0.29	0.00	−0.42	+0.13
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.51	2.21	−0.30	0.00	−0.31	+0.01
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	9.91	−0.38	0.00	−0.54	+0.16
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.64	5.26	−0.38	0.00	−0.67	+0.29
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.27	8.82	−0.45	0.00	−0.48	+0.04
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	3.08	−0.45	0.00	−0.43	−0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	7.76	−0.49	0.00	−0.43	−0.07
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.09	4.59	−0.50	0.00	−0.45	−0.05
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	6.47	−0.55	0.00	−0.47	−0.08
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.95	12.32	−0.63	0.00	−0.51	−0.13
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.55	5.90	−0.65	0.00	−0.61	−0.04
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	4.41	−0.77	0.00	−0.62	−0.14
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.10	8.33	−0.77	0.00	−0.76	−0.01
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	5.95	5.18	−0.77	0.00	−0.70	−0.07
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.97	10.17	−0.80	0.00	−0.76	−0.04
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.04	7.19	−0.85	0.00	−1.15	+0.29
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	7.39	6.46	−0.93	0.00	−1.02	+0.09
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	8.14	−0.93	0.00	−0.75	−0.17
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	7.42	−1.01	0.00	−1.06	+0.05
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.45	7.43	−1.02	0.00	−1.20	+0.17
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.94	11.88	−1.06	0.00	−1.30	+0.25
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	8.91	7.83	−1.08	0.00	−1.30	+0.22
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.14	14.01	−1.13	0.00	−1.15	+0.03
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.37	8.22	−1.15	0.00	−1.10	−0.06
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.17	9.02	−1.15	0.00	−1.17	+0.02
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	11.30	10.12	−1.18	0.00	−1.04	−0.15
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	12.11	−1.22	0.00	−1.11	−0.11
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	15.58	14.29	−1.29	0.00	−1.25	−0.03
Land Power	National Security	13.60	12.29	−1.31	0.00	−1.27	−0.04
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.42	9.09	−1.33	0.00	−1.20	−0.13
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.02	11.66	−1.36	+0.56	−1.90	−0.02
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	8.00	−1.52	0.00	−1.35	−0.17
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.90	8.37	−1.53	0.00	−1.70	+0.17
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.59	10.02	−1.57	0.00	−1.60	+0.04
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.12	−1.60	0.00	−1.49	−0.11
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.64	13.00	−1.64	0.00	−1.32	−0.32
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	14.88	13.21	−1.67	0.00	−1.52	−0.14
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.13	11.43	−1.70	0.00	−1.51	−0.20
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.28	11.44	−1.84	0.00	−1.77	−0.06
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.19	11.30	−1.89	0.00	−1.77	−0.12
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	14.55	12.66	−1.89	0.00	−1.73	−0.15
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	9.90	−1.90	0.00	−1.90	+0.01
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	7.05	−1.97	0.00	−1.82	−0.15
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.77	10.77	−2.00	0.00	−1.82	−0.18
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.20	11.17	−2.03	0.00	−2.01	−0.01
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.95	7.73	−2.22	0.00	−2.17	−0.06
Maritime Power	National Security	11.00	8.62	−2.38	0.00	−2.34	−0.04
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	17.12	14.72	−2.40	0.00	−2.30	−0.10

Seed 1 of experiment cycle-003.e4-sau. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.