E4 · cycle-003.e4-ukr

Ukraine, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Ukraine decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 18, Legitimacy rupture in year 18, Global funding seizure in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Hybrid coercion in year 26, Debt service reset in year 26, Market access opening in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 6.88 (−2.77); From 9.65; 6.87 to 6.89
Rank by index: 83; From 50; 83 to 83
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 56; From 35; 56 to 56

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	9.65	6.87	6.88	6.89	higher
Rank by index	50	83	83	83	lower
Tier rank	35	56	56	56	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	717.7	520.3	521.0	522.4	higher
Goal-weighted score	717.7	520.3	521.0	522.4	higher
Resilient score	717.7	521.2 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 39 per cent, buy took 8 per cent, partner took 53 per cent of the 1,197 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Ukraine actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 9.65; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 9.40; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 6.88; 6.81 to 6.95
Skill against persistence: −0.55; group error 2.64 against 1.70 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	9.07	7.13	6.62 6.6–6.7	−0.51	right
Strategic Infrastructure	11.92	10.21	8.12 8.0–8.3	−2.08	right
National Security	10.19	10.97	8.27 8.2–8.3	−2.71	wrong
Human Capital	11.81	10.40	10.22 10.1–10.3	−0.18	right
Information & Influence	8.15	9.51	5.12 5.1–5.2	−4.39	wrong
Governance & Integrity	8.91	11.09	7.83 7.8–7.9	−3.25	wrong
Financial Strength	8.34	8.18	4.52 4.5–4.6	−3.65	wrong
Production & Innovation	9.23	8.85	5.79 5.7–5.9	−3.06	right
Trade & Investment	9.25	8.31	5.45 5.4–5.5	−2.86	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 0.6 Russian default and devaluation triggered currency and banking stress in Ukraine.
2004 · S05 × 0.3 Orange Revolution after the disputed presidential election produced a transfer resolved through a court-ordered re-run rather than breakdown.
2008 · S02 × 0.8 Global financial crisis caused banking failures and a 15 per cent fall in GDP.
2014 · S03 × 0.7 Russia annexed Crimea and instigated the Donbas war, beginning active conflict on Ukrainian territory.
2014 · S05 × 0.5 Euromaidan and the flight of Yanukovych produced a contested transfer of power recognised by parliament but disputed by Russia.
2014 · S02 × 0.8 Concurrent banking and currency collapse, compounded by loss of Crimea and parts of Donbas, required an IMF-led emergency rescue.
2020 · S10 × 0.7 COVID-19 pandemic strained the health system and caused a sharp recession.
2022 · S03 × 1.4 Full-scale Russian invasion became the largest war in Europe since 1945.
2022 · S06 × 1 Black Sea blockade halted grain exports, hitting Ukraine's breadbasket economy and triggering a global food availability crisis.
2022 · S04 × 0.7 Russian missile campaign against the power grid caused nationwide blackouts through 2022-23.
2022 · S11 × 0.6 Official creditors froze debt service and the 2024 Eurobond restructuring released fiscal capacity for wartime spending.
2022 · S12 × 0.5 EU candidate status and the existing DCFTA deepened market access and redirected investment towards Ukraine.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · build · 2% each Stabilise the new hryvnia, rebuild tax and administrative capacity, keep schools functioning and begin restoring agricultural output after the post-Soviet collapse. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Foundational Education, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)
2002–2008 · build · 2% each WTO accession and export-led metallurgical and agricultural growth required market access, logistics and industrial modernisation. (Trade Policy & Market Access, Export Capability & Sophistication, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Transport Infrastructure)
2009–2013 · buy · 2% each The Yanukovych period concentrated on cheap Russian gas and state control, strengthening internal forces while neglecting reform. (Energy Infrastructure, Resource Infrastructure, Internal Security & Order, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2014–2018 · partner · 5% each After Crimea and Donbas, Ukraine rebuilt its armed forces while launching anti-corruption and decentralisation reforms with Western support. (Land Power, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Intelligence & Assessment, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2019–2021 · build · 2% each Digital state platform Diia, land-market opening and EU Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area alignment became flagship national programmes. (Digital & AI Competence, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access)
2022–2026 · partner · 5% each Full-scale Russian invasion required all-domain defence, mobilisation and resilience under repeated infrastructure attacks. (Land Power, Air Power, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment, National Resilience & Crisis Management)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainty is how much Soviet-inherited hardware and infrastructure remained genuinely operational in 1996 rather than present but unusable, especially in aerospace, defence and heavy industry. Pre-2014 economic statistics are unreliable, and the scale of damage and adaptation after 2022 is still being assessed. Some relative scores, particularly in information and influence, are judgement-based because Ukraine's independent institutions were only beginning to form.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Ukraine played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.65 to a median of 6.88 (−2.77), with 90 per cent of simulations between 6.87 and 6.90 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 50 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 35. Its base income is 341 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,197 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Land Power (partner, 128 credits, 10.7 per cent); Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (build, 81 credits, 6.7 per cent); Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (partner, 70 credits, 5.8 per cent); Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption (partner, 70 credits, 5.8 per cent); Intelligence & Assessment (partner, 70 credits, 5.8 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: partner 53 per cent, build 39 per cent, buy 8 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.060, and the most repeated action appeared in 43 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Trade & Investment; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, National Security; rounds 21 to 25, National Security; rounds 26 to 30, National Security [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 10 shocks and 2 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S03 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −41.5 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −28.0 points each); S04 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −25.8 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 60 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −6.03; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −6.02; Energy Infrastructure −5.98; Economic Leverage & Dependence −5.24 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.98 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.96 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Transport Infrastructure (−0.72 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 83 (5th to 95th percentile 83 to 83), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 56; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 521 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +3.871 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 3.871 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.889: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.012 and −0.005, for example 2014 partner Land Power (15 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.794 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 26) ends +0.03 from it, with 10 shocks and 2 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 9.65 the model ends at 6.88, where the 2026 ratings put it at 9.40. Group scores miss by 2.64 points on average, against 1.70 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.55); the change in each domain has the right sign in 56 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: information and influence (−4.39); furthest above: human capital (−0.18) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.889	−68.2
No shocks	+3.870	+280.1
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.5	2014 partner Land Power (15 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.007	−0.6	2014 partner Force Generation & Mobilisation (15 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.012	−1.0	2014 partner Intelligence & Assessment (15 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.011	−0.8	2014 partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption (15 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.010	−0.7	2014 partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (15 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.794	+59.5	2022 S03 (-54.8 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.433	+32.5	2014 S03 (-28.2 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.420	+30.6	2020 S10 (-28.0 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	10.7	−17.3
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	22.0	−41.5
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−25.8
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	13.0	−15.5
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−17.6
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−27.9
Debt service reset S11	Upside	100 per cent	26.0	+3.9
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	26.0	+3.1

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.69	12.44 12.37 to 12.49	+1.75	6.11	151
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	9.23 9.17 to 9.28	+0.83	3.40	70
Land Power	National Security	12.53	13.34 13.26 to 13.39	+0.81	4.49	128
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	10.60 10.53 to 10.66	−0.01	4.37	70
Foundational Education	Human Capital	13.83	13.60 13.43 to 13.71	−0.23	1.74	34
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	11.17	10.89 10.81 to 10.97	−0.28	1.51	16
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	2.06	1.31 1.31 to 1.32	−0.75	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	8.56 8.49 to 8.66	−0.78	3.87	62
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.57	8.72 8.67 to 8.78	−0.85	2.47	58
Air Power	National Security	10.19	9.26 9.21 to 9.30	−0.93	2.52	58
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	8.21	7.01 6.94 to 7.09	−1.20	3.28	47
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	11.09	9.78 9.72 to 9.84	−1.31	2.89	58
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	3.42 3.40 to 3.45	−1.32	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.39	9.93 9.90 to 9.94	−1.46	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	13.60	12.07 11.99 to 12.13	−1.53	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.24	7.54 7.49 to 7.60	−1.70	2.00	32
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	9.05 9.01 to 9.10	−1.72	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.12	9.35 9.24 to 9.48	−1.77	2.44	47
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	4.44 4.42 to 4.46	−1.83	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.50 6.49 to 6.51	−1.84	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.64	9.75 9.72 to 9.82	−1.89	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	13.25	11.16 10.84 to 11.38	−2.09	2.71	70
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.11	5.97 5.95 to 6.00	−2.14	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.34	10.20 10.08 to 10.31	−2.14	1.75	49
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	5.62	3.47 3.39 to 3.54	−2.15	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	7.93	5.75 5.71 to 5.82	−2.18	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	9.18	7.00 6.93 to 7.04	−2.18	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	13.65	11.42 11.30 to 11.52	−2.23	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	10.77	8.48 8.41 to 8.54	−2.29	2.64	58
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.47	6.17 6.12 to 6.20	−2.30	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	6.12 6.08 to 6.16	−2.32	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.61	6.09 6.01 to 6.15	−2.52	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.69	7.14 7.09 to 7.18	−2.55	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	9.72	7.14 7.09 to 7.17	−2.58	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.58	6.85 6.80 to 6.95	−2.73	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.85	4.11 4.07 to 4.15	−2.74	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	8.29 8.18 to 8.40	−2.74	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	15.75	12.91 12.81 to 13.03	−2.84	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.20	6.34 6.33 to 6.34	−2.86	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.45	6.57 6.53 to 6.60	−2.88	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.85	5.97 5.92 to 5.99	−2.88	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	8.23	5.21 5.15 to 5.27	−3.02	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	9.00	5.91 5.87 to 5.95	−3.09	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.06	7.83 7.76 to 7.88	−3.23	0.78	16
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.31	5.04 4.93 to 5.14	−3.27	1.83	34
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.98	9.59 9.34 to 9.80	−3.39	1.55	47
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	5.17 5.10 to 5.26	−3.44	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	5.50 5.44 to 5.54	−3.46	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.47	3.89 3.83 to 3.93	−3.58	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.02	5.42 5.38 to 5.49	−3.60	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	10.56	6.94 6.87 to 7.01	−3.62	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	5.84 5.77 to 5.91	−3.66	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.99	4.29 4.25 to 4.33	−3.70	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.94	6.23 6.19 to 6.28	−3.71	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	3.47 3.45 to 3.49	−3.89	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.52	7.62 7.46 to 7.78	−3.90	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	7.81 7.69 to 7.92	−3.94	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	4.74 4.70 to 4.76	−3.95	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	4.78 4.75 to 4.81	−3.97	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.29	8.27 8.12 to 8.50	−4.02	1.49	32
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	4.52 4.43 to 4.61	−4.05	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	6.55 6.39 to 6.65	−4.06	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	3.49 3.46 to 3.53	−4.10	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.28	9.17 8.94 to 9.40	−4.11	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.83	5.58 5.52 to 5.65	−4.25	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.54	7.07 6.95 to 7.35	−4.47	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.90	5.41 5.37 to 5.54	−4.49	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	4.52 4.45 to 4.59	−4.50	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.81	7.09 6.99 to 7.17	−4.72	1.53	32
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	3.94 3.83 to 4.03	−4.92	1.43	34
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	13.44	8.31 8.21 to 8.34	−5.13	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.89	4.17 4.05 to 4.26	−5.72	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.02	3.92 3.88 to 4.01	−6.10	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.3e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 1.296 to 15.747
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.7e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.95 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 50; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.060; most funded group soft.governance_and_integrity.government_effectiveness_and_public_administration
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 43% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 39.5% since cycle-002 (4.93 to 6.88); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 37.0% since cycle-002 (380.35 to 520.95); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-ukr. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Ukraine (UKR)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 18, Legitimacy rupture in year 18, Global funding seizure in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Hybrid coercion in year 26, Debt service reset in year 26, Market access opening in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 340.9 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.4 seconds in all; 1653 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.