Simulation 20
Ukraine, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 20: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.65 at the 1996 position, 6.89 in 2026; 138 actions over 30 rounds and 10 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 20
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 30 (median simulation), 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 6.89 (−2.76)
- From 9.65
- Rank by index
- 83
- From 50
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 10 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 9.66 +0.007 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.45 −0.208 |
| 1999 |
| 9.46 +0.015 | |
| 2000 |
| 9.48 +0.016 | |
| 2001 |
| 9.50 +0.020 | |
| 2002 |
| 9.53 +0.025 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.56 +0.030 | |
| 2004 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.42 −0.137 |
| 2005 |
| 9.45 +0.026 | |
| 2006 |
| 9.47 +0.022 | |
| 2007 |
| 9.49 +0.021 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.22 −0.264 |
| 2009 |
| 9.24 +0.015 | |
| 2010 |
| 9.25 +0.009 | |
| 2011 |
| 9.26 +0.010 | |
| 2012 |
| 9.27 +0.010 | |
| 2013 |
| 9.28 +0.010 | |
| 2014 |
| Regional war spilloverLegitimacy ruptureGlobal funding seizure | 8.37 −0.913 |
| 2015 |
| 8.38 +0.015 | |
| 2016 |
| 8.40 +0.016 | |
| 2017 |
| 8.41 +0.018 | |
| 2018 |
| 8.43 +0.014 | |
| 2019 |
| 8.44 +0.010 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.06 −0.374 |
| 2021 |
| 8.07 +0.005 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spilloverBreadbasket failureHybrid coercionDebt service resetMarket access opening | 6.80 −1.270 |
| 2023 |
| 6.83 +0.034 | |
| 2024 |
| 6.86 +0.027 | |
| 2025 |
| 6.88 +0.017 | |
| 2026 |
| 6.89 +0.017 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Information & Influence | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Financial Strength | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 31 | 31 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Production & Innovation | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.889 | −68.2 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +3.870 | +280.1 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.005 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.012 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.010 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.794 | +59.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.433 | +32.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.420 | +30.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 10.69 | 12.47 | +1.78 | +6.10 | 0.00 | −4.27 | −0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.53 | 13.37 | +0.84 | +4.48 | 0.00 | −3.36 | −0.28 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.40 | 9.19 | +0.79 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.26 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.61 | 10.63 | +0.02 | +4.37 | 0.00 | −4.16 | −0.18 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 13.83 | 13.66 | −0.17 | +1.74 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.29 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 11.17 | 10.87 | −0.30 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.25 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 2.06 | 1.31 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.04 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.34 | 8.54 | −0.80 | +3.87 | 0.00 | −4.25 | −0.41 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 9.57 | 8.72 | −0.85 | +2.46 | 0.00 | −3.30 | −0.02 |
| Air Power | National Security | 10.19 | 9.23 | −0.96 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −3.12 | −0.36 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 7.01 | −1.20 | +3.28 | 0.00 | −4.01 | −0.48 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 11.09 | 9.85 | −1.24 | +2.87 | 0.00 | −3.92 | −0.18 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 4.74 | 3.43 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.09 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 11.39 | 9.93 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | +0.07 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.60 | 12.04 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.05 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 9.24 | 7.58 | −1.66 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −3.44 | −0.21 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.77 | 9.02 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.20 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.12 | 9.37 | −1.75 | +2.44 | 0.00 | −3.67 | −0.51 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.27 | 4.42 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.10 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.64 | 9.79 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.29 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.34 | 6.48 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.02 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.25 | 11.31 | −1.94 | +2.70 | 0.00 | −3.97 | −0.66 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.34 | 10.23 | −2.11 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −3.37 | −0.49 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.18 | 7.06 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.28 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 5.62 | 3.50 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.39 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.93 | 5.78 | −2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −0.18 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 8.11 | 5.94 | −2.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.15 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 10.77 | 8.49 | −2.28 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −4.60 | −0.31 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.65 | 11.36 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.56 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 8.44 | 6.13 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.14 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 8.47 | 6.15 | −2.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.14 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 9.72 | 7.21 | −2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.36 | −0.16 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.61 | 6.05 | −2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.09 | −0.48 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 9.69 | 7.12 | −2.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.21 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.03 | 8.45 | −2.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.40 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.75 | 13.03 | −2.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.44 | −0.27 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.85 | 4.10 | −2.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.60 | −0.15 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 9.58 | 6.82 | −2.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | −0.46 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.45 | 6.60 | −2.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.71 | −0.13 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.20 | 6.34 | −2.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.86 | −0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.85 | 5.93 | −2.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.73 | −0.19 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 8.23 | 5.26 | −2.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.78 | −0.19 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.00 | 5.87 | −3.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.85 | −0.28 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 8.31 | 5.06 | −3.25 | +1.83 | 0.00 | −4.73 | −0.35 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.06 | 7.78 | −3.28 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −3.75 | −0.31 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.98 | 9.54 | −3.44 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −4.30 | −0.69 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.96 | 5.52 | −3.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.12 | −0.31 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.02 | 5.51 | −3.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.23 | −0.28 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 8.61 | 5.10 | −3.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.94 | −0.57 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.47 | 3.92 | −3.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.21 | −0.34 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 10.56 | 6.94 | −3.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.19 | −0.43 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.94 | 6.25 | −3.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.52 | −0.17 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.99 | 4.29 | −3.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.52 | −0.17 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 9.50 | 5.80 | −3.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.29 | −0.42 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.52 | 7.79 | −3.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.58 | −0.15 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.29 | 8.43 | −3.86 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −4.87 | −0.48 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.28 | 9.39 | −3.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.21 | −0.68 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 7.36 | 3.47 | −3.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.75 | −0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 7.81 | −3.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.27 | −0.66 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 8.69 | 4.73 | −3.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.81 | −0.14 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 4.77 | −3.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.93 | −0.05 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.59 | 3.47 | −4.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.87 | −0.25 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.54 | 7.40 | −4.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.66 | −0.48 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.57 | 4.41 | −4.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.78 | −0.38 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.61 | 6.37 | −4.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.43 | −0.81 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.83 | 5.58 | −4.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.93 | −0.32 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 9.90 | 5.44 | −4.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.00 | −0.46 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.02 | 4.47 | −4.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.08 | −0.47 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.81 | 7.15 | −4.66 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −5.72 | −0.48 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.86 | 3.85 | −5.01 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −5.82 | −0.62 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 13.44 | 8.32 | −5.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.81 | −0.31 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 9.89 | 4.26 | −5.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −5.17 | −0.45 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.02 | 3.91 | −6.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −5.88 | −0.23 |
Seed 20 of experiment cycle-003.e4-ukr. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.