E4 · cycle-003.e4-ven

Venezuela, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Venezuela decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Core disaster in year 3, Legitimacy rupture in year 6, Breadbasket failure in year 19, Global funding seizure in year 21, Hybrid coercion in year 23, Legitimacy rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 8.38 (−1.80); From 10.19; 8.37 to 8.39
Rank by index: 65; From 45; 65 to 65
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 21; From 39; 21 to 21

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	10.19	8.37	8.38	8.39	higher
Rank by index	45	65	65	65	lower
Tier rank	39	21	21	21	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	735.7	611.1	612.0	612.6	higher
Goal-weighted score	735.7	611.1	612.0	612.6	higher
Resilient score	735.7	611.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 65 per cent, buy took 5 per cent, partner took 30 per cent of the 1,533 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Venezuela actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 10.19; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 4.55; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 8.38; 8.31 to 8.46
Skill against persistence: +0.29; group error 3.83 against 5.43 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	6.75	2.09	5.29 5.3–5.3	+3.20	right
Strategic Infrastructure	11.69	6.62	10.53 10.4–10.7	+3.91	right
National Security	8.81	5.78	6.43 6.3–6.5	+0.65	right
Human Capital	11.67	6.45	12.10 12.0–12.2	+5.65	wrong
Information & Influence	11.07	5.43	9.88 9.8–9.9	+4.45	right
Governance & Integrity	10.20	3.97	9.60 9.5–9.6	+5.63	right
Financial Strength	10.28	2.80	6.76 6.7–6.8	+3.95	right
Production & Innovation	10.11	4.27	7.07 7.0–7.2	+2.80	right
Trade & Investment	11.10	3.58	7.79 7.7–7.9	+4.21	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1999 · S07 × 0.7 The Vargas mudslides and floods killed thousands and destroyed coastal transport and housing infrastructure near Caracas.
2002 · S05 × 0.8 The April coup briefly removed Chávez, and the subsequent opposition oil strike paralysed PDVSA and the oil-dependent state.
2015 · S06 × 0.8 Collapsing imports and domestic agricultural decline produced severe food and medicine shortages and rising malnutrition.
2017 · S02 × 1.2 Venezuela defaulted on sovereign debt, lost access to international capital, and entered hyperinflation under tightening US sanctions.
2019 · S04 × 0.7 A nationwide blackout in March 2019 exposed the decay of unprotected electricity infrastructure; the government blamed sabotage.
2019 · S05 × 1 The National Assembly presidency dispute and Juan Guaidó's claim produced a prolonged dual-government crisis and external recognition split.
2020 · S10 × 0.9 COVID-19 overwhelmed an already collapsed health system and compounded fuel, food, and migration crises.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–1998 · partner · 2% each Agenda Venezuela and the apertura petrolera used IMF-backed stabilisation, foreign oil partnerships and privatisation to restore oil output and fiscal balance. (Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Financial Infrastructure, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Trade Policy & Market Access)
1999–2002 · build · 5% each The constituent process, 1999 constitution, land reform and expanded social inclusion agenda refounded political institutions after Chávez's election. (Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Justice System & Fundamental Rights, Social Infrastructure, Foundational Education, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)
2003–2007 · build · 5% each Oil-funded misiones massively expanded literacy, basic and higher education, primary health care and community infrastructure after the 2002-03 oil strike crisis. (Foundational Education, Advanced Education, Population Health, Health System Capability, Social Infrastructure)
2005–2012 · partner · 5% each High oil prices financed state-led oil expansion, Petrocaribe, ALBA and strategic partnerships with China and Russia while key oil and industrial assets were nationalised. (Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Alliances & Security Cooperation, Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks, Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power)
2013–2018 · build · 2% each Falling oil prices and shortages drove ad hoc food production and import substitution, distribution controls, security build-up and struggling fiscal management. (National Resilience & Crisis Management, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Internal Security & Order, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
2019–2026 · buy · 2% each Regime survival centred on internal security, oil output recovery through foreign licences, de facto dollarisation and selective trade openings while depending on Cuba, China, Russia and Iran. (Resource Infrastructure, Monetary & Currency Capability, Internal Security & Order, Alliances & Security Cooperation, Trade Policy & Market Access)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): Venezuelan data are highly politicised and uncertain, especially for institutional quality and non-oil capabilities in 1996. The baseline mixes a world-class oil sector with already eroding public systems, so scores in infrastructure and governance carry wider error bands. Event magnitudes are judgement-based because Venezuela's crises cascaded across political, financial, food and health domains simultaneously.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Venezuela played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 10.19 to a median of 8.38 (−1.80), with 90 per cent of simulations between 8.36 and 8.39 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 45 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 39. Its base income is 332 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,534 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Foundational Education (build, 141 credits, 9.2 per cent); Social Infrastructure (build, 141 credits, 9.2 per cent); Resource Infrastructure (partner, 118 credits, 7.7 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (partner, 109 credits, 7.1 per cent); Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (build, 101 credits, 6.6 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 65 per cent, partner 30 per cent, buy 5 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.063, and the most repeated action appeared in 33 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Human Capital; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Governance & Integrity; rounds 21 to 25, Governance & Integrity; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 7 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −33.4 points each); S05 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −32.5 points each); S02 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −27.7 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −5.91; Information Environment & Strategic Communication −4.77; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −4.59; Monetary & Currency Capability −4.55 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.97 points); Foundational Education to Advanced Education (+0.94 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.83 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 65 (5th to 95th percentile 65 to 65), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 21; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 612 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +2.724 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 2.724 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.370: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.017 and +0.023, for example 1999 build Political Institutions & Civic Participation (17 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.550 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-ven/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 25) ends −0.02 from it, with 7 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 10.19 the model ends at 8.38, where the 2026 ratings put it at 4.55. Group scores miss by 3.83 points on average, against 5.43 for assuming nothing changed (skill +0.30); the change in each domain has the right sign in 89 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: national security (+0.65); furthest above: human capital (+5.65) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.370	−97.9	0.00
No shocks	+2.724	+191.7	+1.60
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.015	−1.1	0.00	1999 build Political Institutions & Civic Participation (17 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00	1999 build Justice System & Fundamental Rights (17 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.007	+0.4	0.00	1999 build Social Infrastructure (17 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.023	+1.3	0.00	1999 build Foundational Education (17 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.001	−0.0	0.00	1999 build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (17 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.550	+38.7	+1.00	2019 S05 (-34.5 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.535	+37.4	+1.00	2020 S10 (-33.3 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.395	+28.7	+1.00	2002 S05 (-30.5 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	21.0	−27.8
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	100 per cent	23.0	−9.6
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	14.5	−32.5
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	19.0	−25.2
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	3.0	−22.7
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−33.4

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.85	17.13 17.10 to 17.16	+6.28	9.89	129
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.40	17.79 17.75 to 17.85	+5.39	7.23	141
Advanced Education	Human Capital	13.25	16.93 16.70 to 17.17	+3.68	4.29	76
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.93	17.77 17.67 to 17.92	+1.84	4.58	158
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.58	11.21 11.18 to 11.24	+1.63	4.38	75
Population Health	Human Capital	11.98	13.54 13.48 to 13.60	+1.56	3.72	76
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.14	10.37 10.34 to 10.40	+1.23	3.46	65
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	11.87 11.76 to 11.95	+1.07	3.83	101
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.57	11.37 11.30 to 11.44	+0.80	3.12	65
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.42	13.97 13.87 to 14.04	+0.55	4.18	109
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	13.79 13.71 to 13.87	+0.46	4.38	72
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.99	12.44 12.29 to 12.60	+0.45	3.18	76
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.68	13.07 12.95 to 13.36	+0.39	4.65	141
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.93	13.13 13.10 to 13.16	+0.20	3.60	53
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	2.40 2.38 to 2.41	−0.67	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	2.74 2.72 to 2.77	−0.79	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.64	9.73 9.64 to 9.79	−0.91	1.89	36
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.39 3.37 to 3.42	−0.95	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	8.60 8.49 to 8.68	−1.25	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.25	9.97 9.79 to 10.11	−1.28	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.03	9.73 9.57 to 9.84	−1.30	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	4.95 4.93 to 4.97	−1.32	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	9.27 9.26 to 9.28	−1.36	0.64	13
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	5.16 5.11 to 5.19	−1.42	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	3.68 3.64 to 3.72	−1.50	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	7.56	6.05 6.01 to 6.07	−1.51	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	6.71	5.18 5.13 to 5.22	−1.53	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	7.33	5.69 5.66 to 5.75	−1.64	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.95	11.30 11.21 to 11.36	−1.65	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.30	4.62 4.57 to 4.65	−1.68	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.35	8.64 8.61 to 8.67	−1.71	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	4.72 4.62 to 4.80	−1.72	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	7.25 7.20 to 7.33	−1.82	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.79	8.96 8.89 to 9.03	−1.83	2.05	35
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.31	10.20 10.09 to 10.29	−2.11	1.60	33
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.62	9.37 9.18 to 9.49	−2.25	0.86	13
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.17	7.88 7.84 to 7.93	−2.29	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.67	7.35 7.33 to 7.37	−2.32	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.45	7.09 7.06 to 7.11	−2.36	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.69	10.21 10.17 to 10.26	−2.48	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.59	9.10 9.00 to 9.18	−2.49	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	9.74	7.25 7.16 to 7.30	−2.49	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	6.46 6.41 to 6.50	−2.50	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	10.19	7.63 7.55 to 7.71	−2.56	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.76	9.20 9.14 to 9.26	−2.56	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.82	6.24 6.20 to 6.31	−2.58	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.53	6.90 6.82 to 6.98	−2.63	2.21	39
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.90	7.24 7.19 to 7.31	−2.66	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	9.79	7.06 6.98 to 7.09	−2.73	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	6.77 6.68 to 6.86	−2.75	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.98	7.18 7.16 to 7.20	−2.80	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.71	8.85 8.71 to 8.95	−2.86	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	7.77 7.70 to 7.84	−3.03	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	12.53	9.46 9.26 to 9.56	−3.07	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	6.35 6.32 to 6.43	−3.13	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.79	8.64 8.46 to 8.84	−3.15	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.60	6.40 6.27 to 6.46	−3.20	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.12	7.87 7.82 to 7.94	−3.25	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.64	7.24 7.18 to 7.32	−3.40	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.24	8.77 8.59 to 8.94	−3.47	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.63	8.16 8.05 to 8.28	−3.47	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	10.35	6.76 6.70 to 6.85	−3.59	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.70	8.09 7.99 to 8.18	−3.61	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	6.24 6.20 to 6.29	−3.68	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.85	6.12 6.02 to 6.21	−3.73	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.23	6.47 6.46 to 6.50	−3.76	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.22	6.26 6.24 to 6.29	−3.96	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.06	6.55 6.51 to 6.58	−4.51	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	8.23 8.04 to 8.46	−4.62	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.94	5.95 5.90 to 6.00	−4.99	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.53	6.45 6.33 to 6.53	−5.08	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.06	5.84 5.78 to 5.97	−5.22	1.25	27

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.7e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 19.305
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.64 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 45; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.063; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.resource_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 33% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 8.2% since cycle-002 (7.75 to 8.38); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 8.1% since cycle-002 (566.32 to 611.99); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-ven. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Venezuela (VEN)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Core disaster in year 3, Legitimacy rupture in year 6, Breadbasket failure in year 19, Global funding seizure in year 21, Hybrid coercion in year 23, Legitimacy rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 332.3 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.2 seconds in all; 1982 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.