A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-ven

Simulation 20

Venezuela, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 20: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.19 at the 1996 position, 8.39 in 2026; 154 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 20

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 28 (median simulation), 24 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 8.39 (−1.80); From 10.19
Rank by index: 65; From 45
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Resource Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial Infrastructure 7 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7		10.20 +0.011
1998	Partner Resource Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial Infrastructure 7 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7		10.22 +0.021
1999	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 17 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 17 Build Social Infrastructure 17 Build Foundational Education 17 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 17	Core disaster	9.92 −0.299
2000	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 17 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 17 Build Social Infrastructure 17 Build Foundational Education 17 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 17		9.94 +0.021
2001	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 16 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 16 Build Social Infrastructure 16 Build Foundational Education 16 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 16		9.96 +0.022
2002	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 16 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 16 Build Social Infrastructure 16 Build Foundational Education 16 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 16	Legitimacy rupture	9.55 −0.408
2003	Build Foundational Education 16 Build Advanced Education 16 Build Population Health 16 Build Health System Capability 16 Build Social Infrastructure 16		9.59 +0.035
2004	Build Foundational Education 15 Build Advanced Education 15 Build Population Health 15 Build Health System Capability 15 Build Social Infrastructure 15		9.62 +0.029
2005	Build Foundational Education 15 Build Advanced Education 15 Build Population Health 15 Build Health System Capability 15 Build Social Infrastructure 15 Partner Resource Infrastructure 15 Partner Energy Infrastructure 15 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 15 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 15 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 15		9.69 +0.072
2006	Build Foundational Education 15 Build Advanced Education 15 Build Population Health 15 Build Health System Capability 15 Build Social Infrastructure 15 Partner Resource Infrastructure 15 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5		9.76 +0.075
2007	Build Foundational Education 15 Build Advanced Education 15 Build Population Health 15 Build Health System Capability 15 Build Social Infrastructure 14		9.80 +0.041
2008	Partner Resource Infrastructure 15 Partner Energy Infrastructure 15 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 15 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 15 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11		9.87 +0.069
2009	Partner Resource Infrastructure 15 Partner Energy Infrastructure 15 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 15 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 15 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7		9.96 +0.090
2010	Partner Resource Infrastructure 15 Partner Energy Infrastructure 15 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 15 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 15 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1		10.04 +0.080
2011	Partner Resource Infrastructure 15 Partner Energy Infrastructure 15 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 15 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9		10.11 +0.063
2012	Partner Resource Infrastructure 15 Partner Energy Infrastructure 15 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 15 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 2		10.15 +0.045
2013	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6		10.19 +0.033
2014	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3		10.21 +0.023
2015	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 4	Breadbasket failure	9.87 −0.341
2016	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6		9.89 +0.019
2017	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6	Global funding seizure	9.48 −0.409
2018	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6		9.49 +0.008
2019	Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5	Hybrid coercionLegitimacy rupture	8.87 −0.615
2020	Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5	Severe pandemic	8.40 −0.470
2021	Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5		8.40 −0.002
2022	Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5		8.39 −0.008
2023	Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5		8.39 −0.005
2024	Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5		8.38 −0.005
2025	Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5		8.38 +0.002
2026	Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5		8.39 +0.008

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
National Security	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Information & Influence	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Governance & Integrity	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	12	12
Financial Strength	11	11	11	11	11	11	14	14	14	13	12	12	12	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	14	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Production & Innovation	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	16
Trade & Investment	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	10

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.370	−97.9	0.00
No shocks	+2.724	+191.7	+1.60
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.015	−1.1	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.007	+0.4	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.023	+1.3	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.001	−0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.550	+38.7	+1.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.535	+37.4	+1.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.395	+28.7	+1.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.85	17.13	+6.28	+9.90	−3.56	−0.06
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.40	17.81	+5.41	+7.23	−1.64	−0.18
Advanced Education	Human Capital	13.25	16.98	+3.73	+4.29	−1.39	+0.83
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.93	17.88	+1.95	+4.54	−2.11	−0.48
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.58	11.22	+1.64	+4.39	−2.75	−0.01
Population Health	Human Capital	11.98	13.49	+1.51	+3.72	−2.02	−0.19
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.14	10.36	+1.22	+3.46	−2.33	+0.09
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	11.89	+1.09	+3.83	−2.34	−0.40
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.57	11.31	+0.74	+3.12	−2.33	−0.05
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.68	13.34	+0.66	+4.63	−3.09	−0.88
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.99	12.60	+0.61	+3.17	−2.25	−0.32
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.42	14.01	+0.59	+4.14	−3.15	−0.40
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	13.83	+0.50	+4.35	−3.60	−0.26
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.93	13.17	+0.24	+3.59	−3.35	0.00
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.05
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	2.40	−0.67	0.00	−0.62	−0.05
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	2.77	−0.76	0.00	−0.70	−0.06
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.64	9.74	−0.90	+1.89	−2.49	−0.30
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.40	−0.94	0.00	−0.85	−0.08
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.03	9.73	−1.30	0.00	−1.64	+0.34
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.25	9.92	−1.33	0.00	−1.64	+0.31
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	4.92	−1.35	0.00	−1.27	−0.08
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	9.28	−1.35	+0.64	−1.97	−0.01
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	8.49	−1.36	0.00	−1.57	+0.21
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	5.21	−1.37	0.00	−1.26	−0.11
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	3.69	−1.49	0.00	−1.24	−0.24
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	7.56	6.02	−1.54	0.00	−1.43	−0.11
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	6.71	5.14	−1.57	0.00	−1.27	−0.29
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	4.80	−1.64	0.00	−1.34	−0.30
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	7.33	5.67	−1.66	0.00	−1.38	−0.28
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.30	4.63	−1.67	0.00	−1.50	−0.17
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.95	11.28	−1.67	0.00	−1.86	+0.18
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.35	8.61	−1.74	0.00	−1.59	−0.15
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	7.26	−1.81	0.00	−1.70	−0.10
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.79	8.92	−1.87	+2.00	−3.63	−0.24
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.31	10.29	−2.02	+1.64	−3.63	−0.03
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.67	7.36	−2.31	0.00	−2.42	+0.11
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.17	7.85	−2.32	0.00	−2.06	−0.25
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.45	7.11	−2.34	0.00	−2.29	−0.04
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	6.49	−2.47	0.00	−2.30	−0.17
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.62	9.14	−2.48	+0.86	−2.49	−0.85
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	9.74	7.26	−2.48	0.00	−2.20	−0.28
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.69	10.20	−2.49	0.00	−2.28	−0.20
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.59	9.06	−2.53	0.00	−2.63	+0.10
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.82	6.28	−2.54	0.00	−2.24	−0.30
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.90	7.31	−2.59	0.00	−2.44	−0.14
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.76	9.16	−2.60	0.00	−2.37	−0.24
Air Power	National Security	10.19	7.59	−2.60	0.00	−2.30	−0.31
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.53	6.92	−2.61	+2.21	−4.56	−0.26
Maritime Power	National Security	9.79	7.05	−2.74	0.00	−2.40	−0.34
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.71	8.92	−2.79	0.00	−3.14	+0.34
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.98	7.17	−2.81	0.00	−2.85	+0.05
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	6.68	−2.84	0.00	−2.40	−0.43
Land Power	National Security	12.53	9.56	−2.97	0.00	−2.38	−0.59
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	7.72	−3.08	0.00	−2.66	−0.42
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	6.36	−3.12	0.00	−2.81	−0.31
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.60	6.43	−3.17	0.00	−2.69	−0.48
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.79	8.60	−3.19	0.00	−2.51	−0.69
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.24	8.94	−3.30	0.00	−2.89	−0.41
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.12	7.81	−3.31	0.00	−3.05	−0.26
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.64	7.24	−3.40	0.00	−3.10	−0.30
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.63	8.20	−3.43	0.00	−3.31	−0.12
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.70	8.15	−3.55	0.00	−3.26	−0.28
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	10.35	6.80	−3.55	0.00	−3.01	−0.55
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	6.23	−3.69	0.00	−3.49	−0.19
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.23	6.50	−3.73	0.00	−3.65	−0.08
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.85	6.01	−3.84	0.00	−3.49	−0.35
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.22	6.29	−3.93	0.00	−3.97	+0.04
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	8.34	−4.51	0.00	−3.73	−0.78
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.06	6.55	−4.51	0.00	−4.44	−0.07
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.94	5.95	−4.99	0.00	−4.77	−0.22
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.53	6.38	−5.15	0.00	−4.58	−0.56
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.06	5.79	−5.27	+1.27	−5.89	−0.66

Seed 20 of experiment cycle-003.e4-ven. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.