Simulation 28
Venezuela, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 28: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.19 at the 1996 position, 8.38 in 2026; 154 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 28
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 24 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 20 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 8.38 (−1.80)
- From 10.19
- Rank by index
- 65
- From 45
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 7 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 10.20 +0.011 | |
| 1998 |
| 10.22 +0.021 | |
| 1999 |
| Core disaster | 9.92 −0.299 |
| 2000 |
| 9.94 +0.021 | |
| 2001 |
| 9.96 +0.022 | |
| 2002 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.55 −0.409 |
| 2003 |
| 9.59 +0.034 | |
| 2004 |
| 9.61 +0.027 | |
| 2005 |
| 9.69 +0.071 | |
| 2006 |
| 9.76 +0.074 | |
| 2007 |
| 9.80 +0.040 | |
| 2008 |
| 9.87 +0.069 | |
| 2009 |
| 9.96 +0.091 | |
| 2010 |
| 10.04 +0.081 | |
| 2011 |
| 10.10 +0.065 | |
| 2012 |
| 10.15 +0.047 | |
| 2013 |
| 10.19 +0.034 | |
| 2014 |
| 10.21 +0.025 | |
| 2015 |
| Breadbasket failure | 9.87 −0.339 |
| 2016 |
| 9.89 +0.020 | |
| 2017 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.48 −0.408 |
| 2018 |
| 9.49 +0.008 | |
| 2019 |
| Hybrid coercionLegitimacy rupture | 8.88 −0.615 |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.40 −0.472 |
| 2021 |
| 8.40 −0.004 | |
| 2022 |
| 8.39 −0.011 | |
| 2023 |
| 8.38 −0.007 | |
| 2024 |
| 8.38 −0.007 | |
| 2025 |
| 8.38 +0.001 | |
| 2026 |
| 8.38 +0.007 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| Financial Strength | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Production & Innovation | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.370 | −97.9 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.724 | +191.7 | +1.60 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.007 | +0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.023 | +1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.001 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.550 | +38.7 | +1.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.535 | +37.4 | +1.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.395 | +28.7 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 10.85 | 17.15 | +6.30 | +9.88 | 0.00 | −3.56 | −0.02 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 12.40 | 17.79 | +5.39 | +7.23 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.20 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.25 | 17.23 | +3.98 | +4.28 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +1.08 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.93 | 17.64 | +1.71 | +4.66 | 0.00 | −2.11 | −0.83 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 9.58 | 11.19 | +1.61 | +4.39 | 0.00 | −2.75 | −0.04 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.98 | 13.58 | +1.60 | +3.72 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.10 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.14 | 10.39 | +1.25 | +3.46 | 0.00 | −2.33 | +0.12 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.80 | 11.85 | +1.05 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −2.34 | −0.45 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 10.57 | 11.34 | +0.77 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.02 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 13.33 | 13.87 | +0.54 | +4.43 | 0.00 | −3.60 | −0.30 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.42 | 13.87 | +0.45 | +4.18 | 0.00 | −3.15 | −0.57 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.99 | 12.44 | +0.45 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −2.25 | −0.47 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.68 | 13.05 | +0.37 | +4.66 | 0.00 | −3.09 | −1.20 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 12.93 | 13.17 | +0.24 | +3.59 | 0.00 | −3.35 | 0.00 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.07 | 2.39 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.53 | 2.72 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.11 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 3.39 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.10 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.64 | 9.66 | −0.98 | +1.89 | 0.00 | −2.49 | −0.38 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.85 | 8.71 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | +0.45 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.25 | 10.08 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.47 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.27 | 4.93 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.63 | 9.26 | −1.37 | +0.64 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 6.58 | 5.16 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.15 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 11.03 | 9.55 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.16 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.18 | 3.70 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.24 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 7.56 | 6.07 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.06 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 6.71 | 5.18 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.25 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 12.95 | 11.32 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.23 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 7.33 | 5.70 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.25 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.30 | 4.65 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.15 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.44 | 4.78 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.32 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.35 | 8.63 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.13 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.79 | 9.07 | −1.72 | +2.08 | 0.00 | −3.64 | −0.16 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.07 | 7.28 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.09 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 12.31 | 10.23 | −2.08 | +1.61 | 0.00 | −3.63 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.17 | 7.89 | −2.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.07 | −0.21 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 7.33 | −2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.40 | +0.07 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.45 | 7.08 | −2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.08 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.62 | 9.18 | −2.44 | +0.86 | 0.00 | −2.49 | −0.81 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 9.74 | 7.26 | −2.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.20 | −0.28 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.96 | 6.48 | −2.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.18 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.69 | 10.20 | −2.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.20 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.59 | 9.10 | −2.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.63 | +0.14 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.82 | 6.31 | −2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.25 | −0.27 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.76 | 9.21 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.37 | −0.19 |
| Air Power | National Security | 10.19 | 7.57 | −2.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | −0.33 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 9.53 | 6.84 | −2.69 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −4.53 | −0.38 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.90 | 7.21 | −2.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.44 | −0.25 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 6.82 | −2.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.42 | −0.28 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.98 | 7.20 | −2.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.86 | +0.08 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 11.71 | 8.90 | −2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.14 | +0.32 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 9.79 | 6.96 | −2.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.39 | −0.44 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.80 | 7.79 | −3.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.66 | −0.35 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 9.48 | 6.37 | −3.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.81 | −0.30 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.79 | 8.63 | −3.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.51 | −0.65 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 9.60 | 6.42 | −3.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.69 | −0.49 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.12 | 7.90 | −3.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.05 | −0.16 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.53 | 9.29 | −3.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.38 | −0.86 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.64 | 7.32 | −3.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.11 | −0.21 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.24 | 8.90 | −3.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.89 | −0.46 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.63 | 8.15 | −3.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.31 | −0.17 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 10.35 | 6.72 | −3.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.00 | −0.64 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.70 | 8.00 | −3.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.26 | −0.45 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.85 | 6.14 | −3.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.52 | −0.20 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 6.19 | −3.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.48 | −0.24 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.23 | 6.48 | −3.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.65 | −0.09 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 10.22 | 6.24 | −3.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.95 | −0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.06 | 6.54 | −4.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.40 | −0.11 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.85 | 8.04 | −4.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.73 | −1.09 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 10.94 | 5.96 | −4.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.77 | −0.21 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 11.53 | 6.45 | −5.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.59 | −0.48 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.06 | 5.80 | −5.26 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −5.90 | −0.64 |
Seed 28 of experiment cycle-003.e4-ven. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.