Round 2033
Round 7 of 20 in simulation 45 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index −0.008 to 11.97.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2033 (the end of 2032) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.97 (−0.008)
- In: 11.97
- Rank by index
- 29
- In: 29
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 64
- In: 69
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 9.44 | 9.29 | −0.140 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 13.65 | 13.59 | −0.063 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.42 | 9.43 | +0.005 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 14.46 | 14.62 | +0.159 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 12.34 | 12.30 | −0.035 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 11.92 | 11.80 | −0.116 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 12.63 | 12.49 | −0.149 | 10 → 11 |
| Production & Innovation | 11.92 | 11.91 | −0.006 | 5 → 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 11.98 | 12.26 | +0.277 | 7 → 6 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2033: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 377, plus 69 carried in. Maintenance 284. Spent 99 on actions (buy 40, partner 59). 64 carried over.
- BuyGlobal Value Chain Position20 credits for 1.06 levelsmctsahead of Quantum Technologies by -4 per cent
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance20 credits for 0.80 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyEconomic Output & Productivity20 credits for 1.15 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation20 credits for 1.88 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerInvestment Attraction & Projection20 credits for 1.52 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −29.1 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Financial Strength Tier 10 to 11; Production & Innovation Tier 5 to 6; Trade & Investment Tier 7 to 6.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Attraction & Projection | +1.30 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | +1.06 | +1.15 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.07 |
| Global Value Chain Position | +0.86 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.19 | 0.00 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | +0.78 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.16 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.77 | +0.95 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +0.73 | +0.92 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |