Simulation 45
Brazil, tree search, 20 years, seed 45: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 12.68 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 45
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (median simulation), 41 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.68 (+0.99)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 24
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.72 +0.032 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.76 +0.039 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.85 +0.090 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.95 +0.103 | |
| 2031 |
| 12.11 +0.160 | |
| 2032 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.97 −0.140 |
| 2033 |
| AI labour shock | 11.97 −0.008 |
| 2034 |
| 11.94 −0.027 | |
| 2035 |
| 11.91 −0.029 | |
| 2036 |
| 12.01 +0.098 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.11 +0.098 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.23 +0.125 | |
| 2039 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 12.22 −0.014 |
| 2040 |
| 12.20 −0.019 | |
| 2041 |
| 12.22 +0.018 | |
| 2042 |
| Regional war spillover | 12.23 +0.008 |
| 2043 |
| 12.33 +0.104 | |
| 2044 |
| 12.44 +0.115 | |
| 2045 |
| 12.53 +0.081 | |
| 2046 |
| 12.68 +0.152 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.316 | −166.4 | −2.20 |
| No shocks | +0.443 | +32.3 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.7 | −0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.019 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.019 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.333 | +23.4 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.152 | +11.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.128 | +9.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 17.80 | +7.30 | +7.85 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.20 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 17.51 | +6.84 | +7.48 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.08 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 19.21 | +6.71 | +7.02 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.16 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 17.99 | +6.49 | +7.38 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.46 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 11.78 | +6.45 | +8.07 | 0.00 | −1.70 | +0.08 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 15.43 | +6.10 | +6.76 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.96 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 17.97 | +5.97 | +7.17 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.11 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 15.13 | +5.73 | +6.82 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.10 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 15.36 | +5.36 | +6.17 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.35 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 16.49 | +5.24 | +5.79 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.04 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 18.81 | +4.56 | +6.54 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.09 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 16.05 | +4.38 | +4.79 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.23 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 16.31 | +3.98 | +5.86 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 16.83 | +3.83 | +4.29 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.41 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 15.41 | +3.74 | +5.83 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −0.13 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 15.38 | +3.71 | +5.47 | 0.00 | −1.97 | +0.21 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.40 | +3.07 | +4.76 | 0.00 | −2.07 | +0.38 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 14.88 | +2.88 | +4.61 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.10 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 14.82 | +2.82 | +4.24 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.19 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 15.23 | +2.73 | +4.44 | 0.00 | −2.15 | +0.44 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 10.89 | +2.64 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.37 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 11.00 | +2.20 | +3.32 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 11.99 | +2.19 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.29 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 13.22 | +1.22 | +3.01 | 0.00 | −2.07 | +0.28 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 11.23 | +0.43 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.17 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 10.83 | +0.40 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.19 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.57 | +0.24 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 11.52 | +0.19 | +1.63 | 0.00 | −1.56 | +0.12 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 11.17 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.47 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 9.48 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.45 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 12.55 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.16 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.78 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.73 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.02 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.53 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.35 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.10 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | 0.00 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.58 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.03 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.56 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.25 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.28 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.18 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.54 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.22 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 6.86 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.16 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 11.72 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.16 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 12.89 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.23 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 5.84 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.06 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 12.00 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.14 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 12.83 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.02 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 10.69 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.06 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.34 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.60 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.32 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.11 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 11.97 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 11.49 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | 0.00 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.54 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 10.77 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.06 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 13.24 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.05 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.89 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.09 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 13.21 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.09 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 11.21 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.12 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 5.45 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.34 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 12.70 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.14 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 11.66 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.44 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 13.21 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.35 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.68 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.31 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.93 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.02 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 10.56 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.14 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 12.08 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.52 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.02 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.05 | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.20 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 12.88 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.55 | −0.07 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 12.57 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.05 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 9.29 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.07 | +0.36 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 11.53 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.12 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 11.93 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.15 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 12.40 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | +0.01 |
Seed 45 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-bra-mcts-tier-rank. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.