Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 10 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Hybrid coercion, and the index −0.204 to 11.47.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.47 (−0.204)
- In: 11.68
- Rank by index
- 34
- In: 31
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 56
- In: 40
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8.84 | 8.60 | −0.236 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 13.56 | 13.10 | −0.461 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.32 | 8.79 | −0.533 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 12.67 | 13.27 | +0.594 | 4 → 3 |
| Information & Influence | 11.98 | 11.42 | −0.558 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 11.69 | −0.297 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 12.93 | 12.97 | +0.039 | 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 11.93 | 11.79 | −0.139 | 6 → 8 |
| Trade & Investment | 11.89 | 11.65 | −0.246 | 8 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 383, plus 40 carried in. Maintenance 272. Spent 95 on actions (build 57, buy 19, partner 19). 56 carried over.
- PartnerEconomic Output & Productivity19 credits for 0.99 levelsmctsahead of Digital & AI Competence by 9 per cent
- BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.59 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.60 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.72 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyResearch Talent & Knowledge Creation19 credits for 1.02 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Hybrid coercion S04. −21.5 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Human Capital Tier 4 to 3; Production & Innovation Tier 6 to 8.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +1.49 | +1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +1.39 | +1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | +1.02 | +1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.99 | +0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.01 |