Simulation 10
Brazil, tree search, 20 years, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 12.68 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 10
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 17 (median simulation), 34 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.68 (+0.99)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 24
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.54 −0.149 |
| 2028 |
| 11.59 +0.047 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.68 +0.089 | |
| 2030 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.47 −0.204 |
| 2031 |
| 11.62 +0.144 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.75 +0.134 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.89 +0.142 | |
| 2034 |
| 12.04 +0.145 | |
| 2035 |
| AI labour shock | 12.03 −0.007 |
| 2036 |
| Middle East settlement | 12.04 +0.010 |
| 2037 |
| 12.08 +0.039 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.21 +0.127 | |
| 2039 |
| 12.36 +0.148 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.44 +0.085 | |
| 2041 |
| 12.55 +0.109 | |
| 2042 |
| 12.69 +0.141 | |
| 2043 |
| AI labour shock | 12.68 −0.008 |
| 2044 |
| 12.66 −0.025 | |
| 2045 |
| 12.60 −0.059 | |
| 2046 |
| 12.68 +0.083 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.285 | −164.5 | −2.40 |
| No shocks | +0.419 | +30.5 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.011 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.019 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.331 | +23.0 | +0.40 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.157 | +11.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.127 | +9.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 16.70 | +7.37 | +8.20 | 0.00 | −2.21 | +1.38 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 17.24 | +6.74 | +7.43 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.27 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 19.16 | +6.66 | +6.95 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.22 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 17.21 | +6.54 | +7.46 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 11.42 | +6.09 | +7.41 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.04 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 17.37 | +5.87 | +6.42 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.71 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 17.86 | +5.86 | +7.59 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.02 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 17.47 | +5.80 | +6.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.49 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 15.16 | +5.76 | +7.13 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.10 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 15.36 | +4.11 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.02 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 16.96 | +3.96 | +4.51 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.48 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 13.93 | +3.93 | +5.07 | 0.00 | −1.49 | +0.34 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 12.11 | +3.86 | +4.65 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.43 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 18.03 | +3.78 | +5.19 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.04 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 15.17 | +3.50 | +4.65 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.26 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 15.35 | +3.35 | +4.10 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.43 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 15.43 | +3.10 | +4.48 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.03 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.37 | +2.70 | +4.12 | 0.00 | −1.42 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 15.13 | +2.63 | +4.29 | 0.00 | −1.98 | +0.32 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 13.84 | +2.51 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.56 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 11.11 | +2.31 | +3.48 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 11.99 | +2.19 | +3.05 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.34 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 14.16 | +2.16 | +3.87 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.07 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 13.14 | +1.14 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −2.37 | +0.31 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 1.01 | +1.01 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.57 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 11.36 | +0.93 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.40 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 12.01 | +0.68 | +3.18 | 0.00 | −2.62 | +0.12 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 11.41 | +0.61 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.20 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 6.71 | +0.46 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.36 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 6.76 | +0.43 | +0.96 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 13.64 | +0.21 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.11 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.47 | +0.14 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.09 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 7.16 | −0.17 | +0.41 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.08 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 12.46 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.25 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 9.02 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.63 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.66 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.13 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.65 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.27 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.64 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.47 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.44 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.49 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.34 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.41 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.60 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.76 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.06 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.03 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.53 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 10.51 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.35 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 12.85 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.26 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 11.89 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.26 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 10.85 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 11.90 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.38 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 11.96 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.05 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 11.25 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.07 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 10.55 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 11.33 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.19 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.12 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.13 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 11.28 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | −0.03 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.07 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.03 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 13.07 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.11 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 12.65 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.38 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.78 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.14 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 13.22 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.03 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 13.25 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.45 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.67 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 12.63 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.08 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 10.63 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.11 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 12.19 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.09 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 13.26 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.53 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.02 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.08 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.14 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 13.28 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.11 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 12.74 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.08 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 11.93 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.04 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.23 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.12 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.65 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 9.50 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.46 |
Seed 10 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-bra-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.