Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 17 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Trade bloc rupture, and the index +0.032 to 11.89.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.89 (+0.032)
- In: 11.86
- Rank by index
- 30
- In: 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 72
- In: 49
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8.95 | 8.86 | −0.098 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 13.81 | 13.79 | −0.024 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.42 | 9.39 | −0.031 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 12.84 | 13.38 | +0.544 | 4 → 3 |
| Information & Influence | 12.22 | 12.14 | −0.083 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12.12 | 12.07 | −0.042 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 13.32 | 13.30 | −0.022 | 9 |
| Production & Innovation | 11.88 | 12.06 | +0.184 | 8 → 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.18 | 12.04 | −0.137 | 7 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 401, plus 49 carried in. Maintenance 279. Spent 99 on actions (build 59, buy 40). 72 carried over.
- BuyTechnical & Vocational Skills20 credits for 0.77 levelsmctsahead of Economic Output & Productivity by -8 per cent
- BuildDigital & AI Competence20 credits for 1.63 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion20 credits for 1.86 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling20 credits for 1.74 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildFoundational Education20 credits for 1.22 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Trade bloc rupture S01. −14.6 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Human Capital Tier 4 to 3; Production & Innovation Tier 8 to 6.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | +1.79 | +1.86 | 0.00 | −0.07 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +1.48 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +1.45 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +1.36 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Foundational Education | +0.72 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | +0.30 | +0.38 | 0.00 | −0.08 | 0.00 |