Simulation 17
Brazil, tree search, 20 years, seed 17: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 13.39 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 17
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 34 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 13.39 (+1.70)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 22
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- From 0
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.72 +0.035 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.79 +0.064 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.86 +0.070 | |
| 2030 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 11.89 +0.032 |
| 2031 |
| AI labour shock | 11.79 −0.106 |
| 2032 |
| 11.67 −0.116 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.59 −0.079 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.71 +0.120 | |
| 2035 |
| 11.81 +0.096 | |
| 2036 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 11.94 +0.133 |
| 2037 |
| 12.08 +0.141 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.24 +0.163 | |
| 2039 |
| 12.40 +0.154 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.54 +0.144 | |
| 2041 |
| 12.69 +0.145 | |
| 2042 |
| Clean power threshold | 12.81 +0.129 |
| 2043 |
| 12.96 +0.149 | |
| 2044 |
| 13.09 +0.125 | |
| 2045 |
| 13.21 +0.120 | |
| 2046 |
| 13.39 +0.182 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.285 | −164.5 | −2.40 |
| No shocks | +0.419 | +30.5 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.011 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.019 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.331 | +23.0 | +0.40 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.157 | +11.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.127 | +9.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 17.84 | +8.51 | +8.31 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +1.28 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 18.72 | +8.22 | +8.44 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.29 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 19.04 | +7.54 | +7.09 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.74 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 17.73 | +7.06 | +7.53 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 12.08 | +6.75 | +7.50 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.07 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 16.11 | +6.71 | +7.13 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.11 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 18.50 | +6.50 | +7.15 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.01 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 16.26 | +6.26 | +6.48 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.44 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 17.86 | +5.36 | +5.14 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.25 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 16.87 | +5.20 | +5.05 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.41 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 19.10 | +4.85 | +5.74 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 15.88 | +4.63 | +4.82 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 12.54 | +4.29 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.34 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 16.17 | +4.17 | +4.82 | 0.00 | −0.64 | 0.00 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 16.14 | +4.14 | +4.20 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.44 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 16.30 | +3.97 | +4.61 | 0.00 | −0.64 | 0.00 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 15.55 | +3.88 | +4.38 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.40 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 15.51 | +3.84 | +4.74 | 0.00 | −0.91 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 16.25 | +3.75 | +4.63 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.26 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 12.95 | +3.15 | +3.26 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.30 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 11.87 | +3.07 | +3.53 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.09 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.37 | +3.04 | +3.41 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.55 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 15.79 | +2.79 | +2.70 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.68 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 14.48 | +2.48 | +3.35 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.39 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 7.72 | +1.39 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 14.76 | +1.33 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 11.63 | +1.20 | +1.63 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.31 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 11.94 | +1.14 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.16 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 15.24 | +0.99 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.34 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 10.27 | +0.94 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 6.93 | +0.68 | +0.75 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.50 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 11.98 | +0.65 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.13 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 9.97 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.76 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.48 | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.45 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.39 | +0.39 | +0.47 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.02 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 11.35 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.47 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 14.12 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.43 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 11.30 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.81 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 13.68 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.29 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 12.49 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.28 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 12.96 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.40 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.97 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.34 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 12.66 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.27 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 14.12 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.10 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 12.06 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.17 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.27 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.47 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.09 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.94 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.06 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 12.11 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.06 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.89 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | 0.00 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.89 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.13 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 13.09 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.07 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 11.32 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 12.49 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.03 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 7.14 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.06 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 10.47 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.04 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 11.78 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.07 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 12.37 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.36 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.52 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.13 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 11.09 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.01 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.72 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 13.72 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.12 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 10.33 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 11.33 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.16 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 13.79 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 13.16 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.18 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.94 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.06 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 13.93 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.08 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 9.37 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.03 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.37 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.40 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 12.60 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.08 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 13.61 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.06 |
Seed 17 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-bra-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.