Round 2031
Round 5 of 20 in simulation 17 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index −0.106 to 11.79.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2031 (the end of 2030) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.79 (−0.106)
- In: 11.89
- Rank by index
- 30
- In: 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 44
- In: 68
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8.86 | 8.97 | +0.111 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 13.79 | 13.69 | −0.099 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.39 | 9.37 | −0.020 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 13.38 | 13.85 | +0.463 | 3 → 2 |
| Information & Influence | 12.14 | 11.84 | −0.293 | 5 → 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12.07 | 11.91 | −0.168 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 13.30 | 13.01 | −0.295 | 9 |
| Production & Innovation | 12.06 | 11.79 | −0.280 | 6 → 8 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.04 | 11.67 | −0.375 | 7 → 8 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2031: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 355, plus 68 carried in. Maintenance 278. Spent 100 on actions (build 40, buy 60). 44 carried over.
- BuildNuclear Deterrence20 credits for 0.47 levelsmctsahead of Research Talent & Knowledge Creation by 2 per cent
- BuyArtificial Intelligence20 credits for 2.02 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyResearch Talent & Knowledge Creation20 credits for 1.06 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies20 credits for 2.00 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildDigital & AI Competence20 credits for 1.51 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −32.1 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Human Capital Tier 3 to 2; Information & Influence Tier 5 to 6; Production & Innovation Tier 6 to 8; Trade & Investment Tier 7 to 8.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | +1.75 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | +1.58 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +1.46 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −0.23 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +1.28 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −0.23 | 0.00 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | +0.92 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Foundational Education | +0.61 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |