Round 4 · simulation 21 · mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.123 to 11.64.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.64 (+0.124)
In: 11.51
Rank by index
32
In: 32
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
150
In: 104
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology7.017.22+0.2066
Strategic Infrastructure10.7110.80+0.0855
National Security7.547.55+0.0066
Human Capital14.7914.99+0.2053 → 2
Information & Influence10.9311.08+0.1536
Governance & Integrity15.4015.46+0.0653
Financial Strength12.4212.51+0.0909
Production & Innovation12.7712.79+0.0185
Trade & Investment12.0512.33+0.2818 → 7

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 377, plus 104 carried in. Maintenance 239. Spent 91 on actions (build 18, buy 18, partner 55). 150 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills18 credits for 1.54 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Investment Attraction & Projection by 3 per cent
  • PartnerInvestment Attraction & Projection18 credits for 1.61 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure by 1 per cent
  • BuySpace, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure18 credits for 1.28 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks by 0 per cent
  • PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks18 credits for 1.46 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Trade Policy & Market Access by 0 per cent
  • PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access18 credits for 1.85 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Energy Technologies by 1 per cent

Earlier events still landing: +2.8 points this round.

Tiers. Human Capital Tier 3 to 2; Trade & Investment Tier 8 to 7.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Technical & Vocational Skills+1.38+1.320.00+0.050.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.94+0.920.00+0.030.00
Investment Attraction & Projection+0.87+0.800.00+0.03+0.04
Space Technologies+0.78+0.730.00+0.050.00
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks+0.77+0.730.00+0.03+0.02
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure+0.67+0.640.00+0.03+0.01