Round 19 · simulation 21 · mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal

Round 2045

Round 19 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Automated discovery step, and the index +0.182 to 12.73.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2045 (the end of 2044) and as it left it.

Capability index
12.73 (+0.182)
In: 12.54
Rank by index
24
In: 25
Domains at Tier 1
1
In: 1
Credits carried
13
In: 57
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology11.1811.33+0.1595 → 4
Strategic Infrastructure11.0211.13+0.1074
National Security7.888.00+0.1256
Human Capital16.1716.31+0.1461
Information & Influence13.4713.53+0.0603
Governance & Integrity15.0215.12+0.1065
Financial Strength11.2411.25+0.00711
Production & Innovation12.9813.23+0.2444 → 3
Trade & Investment13.9514.64+0.6864

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2045: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 362, plus 57 carried in. Maintenance 309. Spent 97 on actions (buy 19, partner 77). 13 carried over.

  • PartnerInvestment Attraction & Projection19 credits for 1.35 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 1 per cent
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity19 credits for 0.91 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Digital & Services Trade by 0 per cent
  • PartnerDigital & Services Trade19 credits for 1.49 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Global Value Chain Position by 0 per cent
  • PartnerGlobal Value Chain Position19 credits for 1.39 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Economic Leverage & Dependence by 1 per cent
  • PartnerEconomic Leverage & Dependence19 credits for 1.46 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power by 1 per cent
  • Upside event: Automated discovery step S17. +21.9 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 5 to 4; Production & Innovation Tier 4 to 3.

The groups that moved most in 2045, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Investment Attraction & Projection+1.37+1.320.00+0.10−0.04
Economic Output & Productivity+1.05+0.910.00+0.10+0.05
Digital & Services Trade+0.87+0.740.00+0.10+0.03
Global Value Chain Position+0.80+0.700.00+0.10+0.01
Economic Leverage & Dependence+0.79+0.730.00+0.10−0.04
Export Capability & Sophistication+0.77+0.670.00+0.10+0.01