Round 2040
Round 14 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Legitimacy rupture, and the index −0.099 to 12.34.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2040 (the end of 2039) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 12.34 (−0.099)
- In: 12.44
- Rank by index
- 26
- In: 25
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 277
- In: 244
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 9.73 | 9.98 | +0.248 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 11.09 | 11.08 | −0.015 | 5 |
| National Security | 8.00 | 7.67 | −0.323 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 15.71 | 15.77 | +0.054 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 12.55 | 12.28 | −0.274 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.37 | 15.18 | −0.188 | 4 → 5 |
| Financial Strength | 12.50 | 12.06 | −0.442 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 13.31 | 13.26 | −0.055 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 13.68 | 13.78 | +0.102 | 5 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2040: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 423, plus 244 carried in. Maintenance 290. Spent 101 on actions (build 20, buy 20, partner 61). 277 carried over.
- PartnerSemiconductors & Advanced Computing20 credits for 0.72 levelsmctsahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 0 per cent
- PartnerSpace Technologies20 credits for 1.16 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerGlobal Value Chain Position20 credits for 1.56 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildDigital & AI Competence20 credits for 1.43 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing20 credits for 1.62 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Legitimacy rupture S05. −21.9 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Governance & Integrity Tier 4 to 5.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | +1.92 | +1.95 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | +0.77 | +0.83 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.07 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | +0.72 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.07 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.01 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.01 |