Simulation 21
Estonia, tree search, 20 years, seed 21: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 12.84 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 21
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.84 (+1.35)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 22
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Chronic disease advance | 11.61 +0.123 |
| 2028 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.37 −0.240 |
| 2029 |
| 11.50 +0.132 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.63 +0.127 | |
| 2031 |
| 11.80 +0.172 | |
| 2032 |
| AI labour shock | 11.79 −0.009 |
| 2033 |
| 11.78 −0.013 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.78 +0.006 | |
| 2035 |
| 11.91 +0.123 | |
| 2036 |
| 12.01 +0.101 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.12 +0.110 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.22 +0.105 | |
| 2039 |
| Automated discovery step | 12.44 +0.215 |
| 2040 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 12.34 −0.099 |
| 2041 |
| 12.57 +0.234 | |
| 2042 |
| 12.67 +0.093 | |
| 2043 |
| 12.77 +0.101 | |
| 2044 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.54 −0.226 |
| 2045 |
| Automated discovery step | 12.72 +0.183 |
| 2046 |
| AI labour shock | 12.84 +0.110 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.345 | −173.4 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +1.049 | +77.6 | +2.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.613 | +45.0 | +0.60 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.437 | +31.3 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.307 | +22.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 13.00 | +10.50 | +10.91 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 11.18 | +8.51 | +9.03 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.18 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 15.93 | +7.60 | +4.74 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +3.58 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 12.07 | +7.27 | +8.04 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.01 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 14.59 | +7.09 | +8.17 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.25 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 19.69 | +6.69 | +6.62 | 0.00 | +0.10 | −0.04 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 16.44 | +6.44 | +8.60 | 0.00 | −2.20 | +0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 10.52 | +5.92 | +5.32 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +1.31 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 11.03 | +5.89 | +6.05 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 10.57 | +4.90 | +4.82 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.48 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 11.98 | +4.58 | +4.34 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 18.05 | +4.55 | +5.09 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.49 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 14.52 | +4.52 | +5.29 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.33 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 17.74 | +4.24 | +5.28 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.30 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 14.97 | +4.17 | +4.66 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 12.00 | +3.60 | +4.67 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.05 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.68 | +3.35 | +5.91 | 0.00 | −2.77 | +0.21 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 17.27 | +2.94 | +3.24 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.60 | +2.93 | +4.41 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.11 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 10.47 | +2.22 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.60 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 6.19 | +2.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +2.14 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 16.63 | +2.13 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.14 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 14.43 | +1.76 | +1.12 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.17 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 14.70 | +1.70 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 11.49 | +1.69 | +3.07 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.13 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 15.91 | +1.58 | +1.88 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.04 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 7.43 | +1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +1.37 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 17.74 | +1.24 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.10 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.71 | +1.04 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.74 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 15.79 | +1.04 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −2.86 | +1.35 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.99 | +0.99 | +0.69 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 12.26 | +0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.50 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 15.35 | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 10.48 | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.73 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.48 | +0.48 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.24 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 4.95 | +0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.40 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 12.37 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.27 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 6.35 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.30 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 14.66 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.33 | 0.00 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 9.48 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.15 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 8.89 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.14 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 13.79 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.14 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.08 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.12 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.53 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.02 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 11.88 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.11 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 8.76 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.15 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 14.06 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.02 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 13.77 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.13 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 13.17 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.13 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 6.58 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.12 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.31 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.05 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 11.59 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.03 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 11.28 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.02 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.99 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | −0.04 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 11.65 | −0.35 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −1.98 | +0.09 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 14.90 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.02 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 12.15 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.14 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 14.29 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 4.98 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.38 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.05 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 16.73 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.03 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 11.73 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 12.27 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.33 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.51 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 10.47 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 13.54 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.26 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 12.27 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.38 | +0.90 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 12.23 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.91 | +0.14 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 12.01 | −2.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.24 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 11.33 | −2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.27 | −0.08 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 9.63 | −2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.03 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 11.35 | −2.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.63 | −0.01 |
Seed 21 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.