Round 15 · simulation 21 · mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-index

Round 2041

Round 15 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.234 to 12.57.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2041 (the end of 2040) and as it left it.

Capability index
12.57 (+0.235)
In: 12.34
Rank by index
25
In: 26
Domains at Tier 1
1
In: 1
Credits carried
283
In: 263
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology9.9810.35+0.3645
Strategic Infrastructure11.0811.21+0.1305 → 4
National Security7.677.80+0.1226
Human Capital15.7716.07+0.3011
Information & Influence12.2812.63+0.3524
Governance & Integrity15.1815.30+0.1155 → 4
Financial Strength12.0612.41+0.3588
Production & Innovation13.2613.39+0.1303
Trade & Investment13.7814.02+0.2395

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2041: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 412, plus 263 carried in. Maintenance 287. Spent 106 on actions (build 21, buy 64, partner 21). 283 carried over.

  • BuildFiscal Capacity & Public Finance21 credits for 0.66 levelsmctsahead of Air Power by 0 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance21 credits for 1.68 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuySovereign Capital & External Financial Power21 credits for 1.66 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerSpace Technologies21 credits for 1.17 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyResearch Talent & Knowledge Creation21 credits for 1.12 levelsmcts_fill

Earlier events still landing: +8.0 points this round.

Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 5 to 4; Governance & Integrity Tier 5 to 4.

The groups that moved most in 2041, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.74+1.680.00+0.05+0.01
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power+1.72+1.660.00+0.05+0.01
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation+1.34+1.120.00+0.21+0.01
Space Technologies+1.28+1.170.00+0.10+0.01
Global Value Chain Position+0.90+0.780.00+0.10+0.02
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+0.57+0.360.00+0.210.00