Round 2032
Round 6 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index +0.001 to 11.80.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2032 (the end of 2031) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.80 (+0.002)
- In: 11.80
- Rank by index
- 30
- In: 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 201
- In: 176
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7.76 | 8.00 | +0.234 | 6 → 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 10.88 | 10.83 | −0.059 | 5 |
| National Security | 7.57 | 7.62 | +0.049 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 15.23 | 15.30 | +0.066 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 11.23 | 11.08 | −0.148 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.53 | 15.44 | −0.090 | 3 |
| Financial Strength | 12.69 | 12.54 | −0.147 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 12.80 | 12.81 | +0.008 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.48 | 12.58 | +0.096 | 7 → 6 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2032: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 372, plus 176 carried in. Maintenance 250. Spent 97 on actions (build 19, buy 58, partner 19). 201 carried over.
- BuySensing, Timing & Navigation19 credits for 1.98 levelsmctsahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 0 per cent
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing19 credits for 1.42 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.64 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyEconomic Output & Productivity19 credits for 1.06 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access19 credits for 1.84 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −25.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 6 to 5; Trade & Investment Tier 7 to 6.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | +1.98 | +1.98 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.15 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +1.71 | +1.85 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | +1.45 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.19 | 0.00 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | +0.91 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +0.90 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.07 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +0.47 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 |