Round 2032
Round 6 of 20 in simulation 23 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Hybrid coercion, and the index −0.251 to 11.78.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2032 (the end of 2031) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.78 (−0.251)
- In: 12.03
- Rank by index
- 30
- In: 29
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 180
- In: 138
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7.85 | 7.85 | −0.002 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 11.11 | 10.48 | −0.631 | 5 |
| National Security | 7.59 | 6.78 | −0.811 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 15.24 | 15.48 | +0.238 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 11.28 | 10.66 | −0.612 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.57 | 15.24 | −0.330 | 3 → 4 |
| Financial Strength | 13.39 | 13.44 | +0.048 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 13.24 | 13.16 | −0.085 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.97 | 12.90 | −0.071 | 6 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2032: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 396, plus 138 carried in. Maintenance 259. Spent 95 on actions (build 19, buy 38, partner 38). 180 carried over.
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.60 levelsmctsahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by 0 per cent
- BuySensing, Timing & Navigation19 credits for 1.93 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyEconomic Output & Productivity19 credits for 1.05 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerSpace Technologies19 credits for 1.27 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks19 credits for 1.42 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Hybrid coercion S04. −35.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 4.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | +1.76 | +1.93 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.15 |
| Maritime Power | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.05 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | 0.00 |