Round 2032
Round 6 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index 0.000 to 11.78.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2032 (the end of 2031) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.78 (0.000)
- In: 11.78
- Rank by index
- 30
- In: 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 206
- In: 179
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7.64 | 7.91 | +0.267 | 5 → 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 10.88 | 10.82 | −0.062 | 5 |
| National Security | 7.57 | 7.62 | +0.047 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 15.20 | 15.23 | +0.026 | 2 → 1 |
| Information & Influence | 11.24 | 11.09 | −0.151 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.53 | 15.44 | −0.088 | 3 |
| Financial Strength | 12.70 | 12.69 | −0.012 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 12.81 | 12.81 | +0.004 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.48 | 12.45 | −0.033 | 7 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2032: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 373, plus 179 carried in. Maintenance 250. Spent 96 on actions (build 19, buy 58, partner 19). 206 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance19 credits for 0.62 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by -6 per cent
- BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing19 credits for 1.95 levelsmcts_fill
- BuySensing, Timing & Navigation19 credits for 1.96 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.62 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyEconomic Output & Productivity19 credits for 1.05 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −25.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 5 to 6; Human Capital Tier 2 to 1.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | +1.96 | +1.96 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | +1.80 | +1.95 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | +0.90 | +1.05 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +0.80 | +0.95 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | +0.57 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.26 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +0.55 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −0.08 | 0.00 |