Round 2040
Round 14 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Legitimacy rupture, and the index −0.088 to 12.32.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2040 (the end of 2039) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 12.32 (−0.089)
- In: 12.41
- Rank by index
- 26
- In: 25
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 332
- In: 294
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 9.76 | 9.80 | +0.037 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 11.12 | 11.11 | −0.007 | 5 |
| National Security | 8.07 | 7.72 | −0.348 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 15.63 | 15.72 | +0.087 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 12.23 | 12.07 | −0.164 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.38 | 15.20 | −0.183 | 3 → 5 |
| Financial Strength | 12.84 | 12.48 | −0.363 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 13.04 | 12.99 | −0.056 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 13.59 | 13.79 | +0.202 | 5 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2040: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 427, plus 294 carried in. Maintenance 288. Spent 101 on actions (build 20, buy 20, partner 61). 332 carried over.
- BuySpace Technologies20 credits for 1.07 levelsmctsahead of Air Power by -3 per cent
- PartnerCulture, Language & Education Diplomacy20 credits for 1.65 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks20 credits for 1.36 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerInvestment Attraction & Projection20 credits for 1.48 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildDigital & AI Competence20 credits for 1.43 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Legitimacy rupture S05. −21.9 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 5.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Technologies | +0.94 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | +0.75 | +0.83 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.05 |
| Global Value Chain Position | +0.73 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.07 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.01 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.04 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.04 |