Round 2041
Round 15 of 20 in simulation 12 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index −0.057 to 12.62.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2041 (the end of 2040) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 12.62 (−0.057)
- In: 12.67
- Rank by index
- 24
- In: 24
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 357
- In: 335
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 10.32 | 10.40 | +0.081 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 10.98 | 10.93 | −0.055 | 5 |
| National Security | 7.44 | 7.53 | +0.089 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 15.85 | 15.87 | +0.014 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 12.98 | 12.90 | −0.078 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.23 | 15.12 | −0.111 | 4 → 5 |
| Financial Strength | 13.55 | 13.37 | −0.185 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 13.50 | 13.33 | −0.172 | 3 → 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 14.20 | 14.11 | −0.091 | 5 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2041: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 428, plus 335 carried in. Maintenance 299. Spent 107 on actions (build 21, buy 64, partner 21). 357 carried over.
- BuyAdvanced Education21 credits for 0.68 levelsmctsahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by 4 per cent
- BuyBiotechnology & Health Technologies21 credits for 1.67 levelsmcts_fill
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing21 credits for 1.17 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildDigital & AI Competence21 credits for 1.41 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks21 credits for 1.37 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −30.9 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Governance & Integrity Tier 4 to 5; Production & Innovation Tier 3 to 4.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | +1.49 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | +0.95 | +1.17 | 0.00 | −0.22 | 0.00 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | +0.59 | +0.79 | 0.00 | −0.20 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | +0.54 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.03 |
| Air Power | +0.50 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Education | +0.48 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.20 | 0.00 |