Simulation 12
Estonia, tree search, 20 years, seed 12: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 12.80 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 12
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 23 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.80 (+1.31)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 24
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- From 0
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.55 +0.065 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.65 +0.099 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.73 +0.083 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.82 +0.091 | |
| 2031 |
| 11.93 +0.107 | |
| 2032 |
| 12.07 +0.142 | |
| 2033 |
| 12.19 +0.117 | |
| 2034 |
| 12.33 +0.143 | |
| 2035 |
| Regional war spillover | 12.09 −0.248 |
| 2036 |
| 12.21 +0.125 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.30 +0.084 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.43 +0.139 | |
| 2039 |
| 12.53 +0.094 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.67 +0.145 | |
| 2041 |
| AI labour shock | 12.62 −0.057 |
| 2042 |
| 12.58 −0.040 | |
| 2043 |
| 12.51 −0.072 | |
| 2044 |
| 12.60 +0.090 | |
| 2045 |
| 12.70 +0.104 | |
| 2046 |
| 12.80 +0.100 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.326 | −171.6 | −1.40 |
| No shocks | +1.064 | +78.7 | +2.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.024 | −1.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.022 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.616 | +45.2 | +0.60 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.433 | +31.1 | +0.25 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.301 | +22.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 12.63 | +10.13 | +11.03 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 10.94 | +8.27 | +9.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.12 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 16.25 | +7.92 | +6.61 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +2.70 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 12.03 | +7.23 | +8.38 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 11.74 | +7.14 | +7.01 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +1.02 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 13.89 | +6.39 | +6.63 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.57 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 19.15 | +6.15 | +6.53 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 11.08 | +5.94 | +6.83 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.01 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 15.10 | +5.10 | +6.12 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 18.37 | +4.87 | +5.24 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.33 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 18.07 | +4.57 | +5.03 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.59 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 10.08 | +4.41 | +4.80 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.35 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 11.70 | +4.30 | +5.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.07 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 15.03 | +4.23 | +4.98 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.01 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 14.06 | +4.06 | +4.28 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.51 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.84 | +3.51 | +4.43 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.16 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 18.01 | +3.26 | +3.62 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +1.28 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 11.16 | +2.91 | +3.34 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.33 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 11.02 | +2.62 | +3.35 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.02 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 6.59 | +2.59 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +1.47 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 16.90 | +2.57 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.01 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 16.90 | +2.40 | +3.14 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.12 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 18.72 | +2.22 | +2.88 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.70 | +2.03 | +3.20 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.12 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.18 | +1.51 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −1.52 | +1.37 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 5.86 | +1.36 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.43 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 14.24 | +1.24 | +2.80 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.11 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 15.51 | +1.18 | +1.86 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.05 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 13.49 | +0.82 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.19 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.76 | +0.76 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.23 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 10.51 | +0.71 | +1.61 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 5.94 | +0.44 | +1.11 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 10.40 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +1.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 11.75 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.49 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 6.04 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.94 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.01 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.83 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.27 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 13.14 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.21 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 11.79 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.20 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 13.68 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.36 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.20 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.12 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 8.93 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.11 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 13.34 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.12 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.89 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.02 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 14.42 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.14 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 14.79 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 8.41 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.53 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 11.32 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.12 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.05 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.02 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.05 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 5.51 | −0.49 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.15 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 14.18 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.05 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 11.93 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.29 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 10.91 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.01 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 8.08 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.28 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 13.60 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.04 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 11.32 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.28 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 12.57 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.09 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 10.81 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 13.64 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.30 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 16.65 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.07 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 12.98 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.55 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 11.85 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 13.17 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.04 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 5.87 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.14 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.62 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 13.34 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.04 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 11.07 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.02 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 12.74 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | −0.05 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 13.75 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.16 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 10.88 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.07 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 12.44 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | +0.02 |
Seed 12 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.