A poor simulation (10th percentile) · mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-score-sum

Simulation 13

United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years, seed 13: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.97 in 2046; 87 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 13

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 36 (median simulation), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 17.97 (+1.51); From 16.45
Rank by index: 2; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Buy Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Build Advanced Education 48		16.50 +0.050
2028	Partner Space Technologies 48 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48		16.57 +0.068
2029	Partner Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 48 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 48		16.73 +0.157
2030	Build Export Capability & Sophistication 48 Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Partner Global Value Chain Position 48 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 48 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 48		16.89 +0.159
2031	Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 48 Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 48 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 48 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 48		17.06 +0.174
2032	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 49 Build Early Childhood Development 49 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 49 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 49 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 49		17.21 +0.145
2033	Build Space Operations 51 Build Early Childhood Development 51 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 51 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 51 Build Population Health 51	Breadbasket failure	17.18 −0.025
2034	Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 53 Build Early Childhood Development 53 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 53 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 53 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 53		17.29 +0.111
2035	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 54 Buy Artificial Intelligence 54 Build Labour & Employment 54 Partner Digital & Services Trade 54 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 54	Legitimacy ruptureCryptographic trust break	17.06 −0.233
2036	Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 54 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 54 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 54 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 54 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 54		17.24 +0.179
2037	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 53 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 53 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 53 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 53 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 53		17.40 +0.160
2038	Buy Health System Capability 53 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 53 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 53 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 53 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 53		17.54 +0.140
2039	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 53 Buy Energy Technologies 53 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 53 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 53 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 53	Global funding seizure	17.46 −0.076
2040	Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 53 Build Financial Infrastructure 53 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 53 Build Financial System Depth & Access 53 Partner Global Value Chain Position 53		17.60 +0.133
2041	Partner Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 52 Build Labour & Employment 52 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 52 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 52		17.78 +0.185
2042	Build Space Technologies 52 Build Resource Infrastructure 52 Build Internal Security & Order 52 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 52 Buy Energy Infrastructure 52		17.92 +0.138
2043	Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 53 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 53 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 53 Build Resource Infrastructure 21 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21		18.06 +0.144
2044	Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 53 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 53	AI labour shock	18.07 +0.006
2045	No actions		18.03 −0.043
2046	No actions		17.97 −0.060

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.084	−149.8	−4.40
No shocks	+0.110	+8.1	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.018	−1.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.023	−1.5	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.024	−1.3	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.027	−1.8	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.047	+3.1	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.016	+1.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	−0.054	−2.7	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	19.63	+4.96	+8.07	−0.01	−0.55	+0.12
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	19.85	+4.85	+9.29	−0.01	−0.37	+0.23
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	19.94	+4.19	+6.64	−0.01	−0.36	+0.34
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	19.44	+4.11	+4.97	−0.02	−1.24	+0.40
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	19.93	+3.93	+6.78	−0.01	−0.47	+0.25
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	18.57	+3.90	+4.46	−0.02	−0.94	+0.40
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	17.27	+3.77	+4.84	−0.02	−1.10	+0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	19.93	+3.68	+5.83	−0.01	−0.84	+0.14
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	19.22	+3.55	+4.67	−0.02	−1.13	+0.38
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	19.04	+3.54	+3.83	−0.01	−0.59	+0.31
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	18.69	+3.49	+4.00	−0.01	−0.77	+0.28
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.42	+3.42	+4.53	−0.02	−1.48	+0.38
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	19.69	+3.36	+3.98	−0.01	−0.68	+0.07
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	19.33	+3.33	+4.43	−0.02	−1.22	+0.14
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	18.55	+3.30	+4.09	−0.02	−0.94	+0.16
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	19.70	+3.20	+5.68	−0.01	−0.53	+0.47
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	19.11	+3.11	+3.94	−0.02	−1.17	+0.37
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	17.62	+2.95	+3.49	−0.03	−0.61	+0.10
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	19.51	+2.91	+4.23	−0.04	−1.31	+0.02
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.55	+2.55	+3.92	−0.02	−1.69	+0.34
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	16.78	+2.53	+3.05	−0.01	−0.67	+0.16
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	16.51	+2.51	+3.24	−0.02	−0.81	+0.10
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	18.47	+2.47	+3.06	−0.02	−1.07	+0.50
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	16.45	+2.45	+3.29	−0.03	−0.95	+0.14
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	16.38	+2.38	+3.24	−0.03	−0.91	+0.09
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	19.27	+2.27	+3.09	−0.01	−1.12	+0.32
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	17.97	+1.97	+2.15	−0.01	−0.51	+0.33
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	18.89	+1.89	+1.95	−0.01	−0.58	+0.53
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	17.45	+1.85	+1.91	−0.01	−0.68	+0.63
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	17.77	+1.77	+2.20	−0.01	−0.79	+0.36
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	18.99	+1.74	+2.82	−0.02	−1.20	+0.27
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	17.57	+1.57	+2.35	−0.03	−0.94	+0.19
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	17.09	+1.49	+2.49	−0.03	−1.01	+0.05
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	18.98	+1.48	+2.12	−0.02	−1.05	+0.42
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	17.98	+1.41	+2.30	−0.03	−0.93	+0.07
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	18.39	+1.39	+2.22	−0.02	−0.96	+0.15
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	18.70	+1.37	+2.28	−0.03	−1.22	+0.35
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.85	+1.35	+1.81	−0.01	−0.67	+0.22
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	17.67	+1.34	+1.76	−0.01	−0.56	+0.16
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	17.72	+1.32	+2.32	−0.01	−1.29	+0.30
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	15.94	+1.27	+1.39	−0.02	−0.59	+0.49
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	17.93	+1.26	+1.89	−0.01	−0.82	+0.20
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	17.32	+1.19	+1.86	−0.01	−0.79	+0.13
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.12	+1.12	+1.82	−0.02	−0.84	+0.15
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	18.36	+1.11	+2.68	−0.01	−2.13	+0.58
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	19.10	+1.10	+2.24	−0.02	−1.10	+0.09
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	18.62	+0.95	+1.63	−0.01	−0.73	+0.06
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	19.17	+0.92	+1.94	−0.01	−0.93	−0.07
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	17.92	+0.92	+2.21	−0.02	−1.36	+0.08
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	18.27	+0.77	+2.00	−0.02	−1.51	+0.30
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.16	+0.66	+2.19	−0.02	−1.73	+0.22
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	18.00	+0.60	+2.08	−0.01	−1.54	+0.07
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	18.28	+0.53	+1.94	−0.01	−1.53	+0.13
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	18.42	+0.42	+2.23	−0.02	−1.90	+0.11
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	18.43	+0.10	0.00	−0.01	−0.43	+0.54
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.27	−0.23	0.00	−0.02	−0.59	+0.39
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	16.84	−0.25	0.00	−0.01	−0.73	+0.49
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	13.96	−0.29	0.00	−0.01	−0.80	+0.52
Air Power	National Security	17.00	16.62	−0.38	0.00	−0.02	−0.59	+0.23
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	16.61	−0.39	0.00	−0.02	−0.59	+0.22
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	15.96	−0.44	0.00	−0.01	−0.64	+0.20
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	15.56	−0.44	0.00	−0.01	−0.66	+0.23
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	16.44	−0.56	0.00	−0.02	−0.59	+0.05
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	16.08	−0.59	0.00	−0.01	−0.59	0.00
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	16.51	−0.69	0.00	−0.03	−0.90	+0.24
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	16.80	−0.70	0.00	−0.02	−0.97	+0.29
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	16.57	−0.76	0.00	−0.02	−0.92	+0.19
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	17.21	−0.79	0.00	−0.02	−0.91	+0.15
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	17.61	−0.79	0.00	−0.02	−1.08	+0.31
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	16.73	−0.87	0.00	−0.03	−0.90	+0.05
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	15.87	−0.88	0.00	−0.03	−0.91	+0.05
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	16.72	−0.95	+0.84	−0.01	−1.86	+0.07
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	15.80	−1.87	0.00	−0.01	−1.89	+0.03

Seed 13 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-score-sum. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.