Simulation 13
United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years, seed 13: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.87 in 2046; 88 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 13
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 30 (median simulation), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.87 (+1.41)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.49 +0.038 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.57 +0.073 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.73 +0.163 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.88 +0.150 | |
| 2031 |
| 17.05 +0.169 | |
| 2032 |
| 17.20 +0.154 | |
| 2033 |
| Breadbasket failure | 17.20 −0.001 |
| 2034 |
| 17.30 +0.100 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureCryptographic trust break | 17.06 −0.239 |
| 2036 |
| 17.21 +0.148 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.36 +0.154 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.51 +0.143 | |
| 2039 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.42 −0.088 |
| 2040 |
| 17.54 +0.122 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.68 +0.137 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.83 +0.150 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.94 +0.114 | |
| 2044 |
| AI labour shock | 17.95 +0.012 |
| 2045 | No actions | 17.91 −0.040 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.87 −0.044 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.989 | −142.3 | −4.20 |
| No shocks | +0.147 | +11.3 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.067 | +4.2 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.083 | +6.0 | +0.33 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.070 | +5.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 19.65 | +4.98 | +10.77 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.12 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 19.89 | +4.89 | +10.50 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.23 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +4.81 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.30 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 19.05 | +4.38 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.40 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 19.95 | +4.20 | +6.64 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.32 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.96 | +3.96 | +6.78 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.23 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 17.27 | +3.77 | +4.80 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.07 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.06 | +3.73 | +5.20 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.36 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 19.92 | +3.67 | +5.09 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.14 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.90 | +3.57 | +5.60 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.07 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 19.14 | +3.47 | +4.96 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.41 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.36 | +3.36 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.37 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 18.58 | +3.33 | +4.20 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.08 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 19.65 | +3.32 | +3.74 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.11 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 19.28 | +3.28 | +4.37 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.14 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 19.69 | +3.19 | +5.68 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.54 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.82 | +2.82 | +3.69 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.37 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.70 | +2.70 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.51 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 16.61 | +2.61 | +3.36 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.15 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 16.52 | +2.52 | +3.36 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.14 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.51 | +2.51 | +3.91 | 0.00 | −1.71 | +0.31 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.48 | +2.48 | +3.06 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.50 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 19.30 | +2.30 | +3.11 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.33 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.69 | +2.09 | +3.33 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 16.31 | +2.06 | +2.58 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.15 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.99 | +1.99 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.26 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 19.01 | +1.76 | +2.82 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.25 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 17.28 | +1.68 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.55 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 19.15 | +1.65 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.40 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.57 | +1.57 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.19 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 19.85 | +1.52 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.75 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 18.77 | +1.52 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −2.16 | +0.53 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 16.66 | +1.46 | +2.01 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.24 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 18.73 | +1.40 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.37 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 18.39 | +1.39 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.14 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 15.34 | +1.34 | +2.08 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.07 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.80 | +1.30 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.21 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 17.67 | +1.27 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.27 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 17.92 | +1.25 | +1.89 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.19 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 16.79 | +1.19 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.17 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.13 | +1.13 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.15 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 19.11 | +1.11 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.09 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 17.92 | +0.92 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 18.59 | +0.92 | +1.60 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.06 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 19.08 | +0.83 | +1.92 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.15 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.20 | +0.70 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.28 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.14 | +0.64 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.23 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 17.96 | +0.56 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −1.55 | +0.07 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 18.27 | +0.52 | +1.95 | 0.00 | −1.56 | +0.13 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.30 | +0.30 | +2.06 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.10 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 16.73 | +0.16 | +0.96 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.14 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.21 | +0.08 | +0.77 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.10 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 14.68 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.62 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 16.98 | −0.22 | +0.42 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.27 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.24 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.34 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 16.76 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.40 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.63 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.22 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.61 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.20 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 15.97 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.21 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.55 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.35 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.53 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.19 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 14.20 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.14 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 16.45 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.04 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 16.19 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.36 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 16.92 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.41 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.65 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.21 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.04 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.04 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 17.74 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.43 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 16.93 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.24 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 16.61 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.20 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.24 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.15 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 15.87 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 15.79 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.02 |
Seed 13 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-tier-rank. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.