Round 6 · simulation 47 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-index

Round 2032

Round 6 of 20 in simulation 47 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.056 to 7.43.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2032 (the end of 2031) and as it left it.

Capability index
7.43 (+0.056)
In: 7.37
Rank by index
75
In: 76
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
1
In: 3
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology3.283.35+0.07910
Strategic Infrastructure7.887.88+0.0017
National Security4.634.64+0.0069
Human Capital8.388.57+0.19012 → 10
Information & Influence8.658.74+0.0877
Governance & Integrity8.898.890.00014
Financial Strength8.578.57+0.00117
Production & Innovation7.757.78+0.02514
Trade & Investment8.328.44+0.11512

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2032: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 143, plus 3 carried in. Maintenance 113. Spent 32 on actions (build 14, buy 7, partner 10). 1 carried over.

  • BuildEconomic Output & Productivity7 credits for 0.43 levelsmctsahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 0 per cent
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.76 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access7 credits for 0.94 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing7 credits for 0.78 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication3 credits for 0.33 levelsmcts_fill

Tiers. Human Capital Tier 12 to 10.

The groups that moved most in 2032, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Technical & Vocational Skills+0.83+0.830.000.000.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+0.78+0.780.000.000.00
Alliances & Security Cooperation+0.49+0.490.000.000.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.47+0.470.000.000.00
Digital & AI Competence+0.36+0.360.000.000.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+0.34+0.340.000.000.00