Simulation 47
Kenya, tree search, 20 years, seed 47: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 7.42 in 2046; 92 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 47
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 50 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 7.42 (+0.24)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 76
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 7.21 +0.034 | |
| 2028 |
| 7.23 +0.018 | |
| 2029 |
| 7.26 +0.029 | |
| 2030 |
| 7.33 +0.067 | |
| 2031 |
| 7.37 +0.048 | |
| 2032 |
| 7.43 +0.056 | |
| 2033 |
| 7.51 +0.080 | |
| 2034 |
| 7.55 +0.042 | |
| 2035 |
| 7.61 +0.057 | |
| 2036 |
| 7.67 +0.061 | |
| 2037 |
| 7.71 +0.043 | |
| 2038 |
| 7.74 +0.030 | |
| 2039 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 7.32 −0.422 |
| 2040 |
| 7.35 +0.029 | |
| 2041 |
| 7.38 +0.033 | |
| 2042 |
| 7.42 +0.039 | |
| 2043 |
| 7.45 +0.028 | |
| 2044 |
| 7.47 +0.023 | |
| 2045 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 7.46 −0.015 |
| 2046 |
| 7.42 −0.041 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.056 | −77.6 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.110 | +80.6 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.899 | +63.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.582 | +42.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 6.41 | +5.41 | +6.17 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 9.19 | +5.19 | +5.71 | 0.00 | −0.52 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 11.83 | +4.83 | +5.02 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 9.72 | +4.39 | +3.57 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +1.31 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 7.61 | +3.11 | +3.90 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.07 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 10.09 | +2.59 | +2.91 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.12 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 4.05 | +2.45 | +2.92 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.03 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 11.43 | +2.43 | +3.20 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.06 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 9.40 | +2.40 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.06 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 12.14 | +2.39 | +3.05 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 4.76 | +2.33 | +2.98 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 9.36 | +1.86 | +2.10 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.03 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 7.91 | +1.58 | +2.27 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 2.86 | +1.53 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 4.81 | +1.21 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.01 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 8.62 | +1.12 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.06 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 8.17 | +0.84 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 8.50 | +0.83 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 3.93 | +0.68 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 7.40 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.73 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.39 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.04 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 1.21 | −0.04 | +0.38 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.03 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 2.29 | −0.04 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.04 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 8.69 | −0.06 | +1.16 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.10 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 4.59 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.64 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 6.54 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.49 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 6.27 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.17 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 7.42 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.01 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 6.50 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.16 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 6.74 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.02 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 8.23 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.04 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 8.06 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.03 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 10.01 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.04 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 5.72 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.06 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 8.46 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.06 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 4.36 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 6.91 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 6.66 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 8.91 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 7.66 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.06 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 7.87 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.06 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.05 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 9.06 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.56 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | 0.00 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 8.55 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.55 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.07 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 4.70 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 10.49 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.28 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 7.24 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | 0.00 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 10.48 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −0.20 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 8.13 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.07 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 6.28 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.15 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 8.95 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.08 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 7.46 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.03 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 4.12 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.09 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 5.37 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.12 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 1.67 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.08 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 8.80 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | 0.00 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 8.97 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.02 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 9.10 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 8.29 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 6.95 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 6.87 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.01 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 5.60 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.02 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 10.27 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.07 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 8.66 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.03 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 8.51 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.03 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 7.24 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.03 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 2.71 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 6.37 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.18 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 6.47 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.11 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 6.66 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 8.57 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.02 |
Seed 47 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.