Round 4 · simulation 50 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-index

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 50 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.042 to 7.33.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
7.33 (+0.041)
In: 7.29
Rank by index
76
In: 77
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
2
In: 3
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology3.103.100.00010
Strategic Infrastructure7.887.880.0007
National Security4.604.60+0.0039
Human Capital7.968.13+0.17312
Information & Influence8.528.52+0.0087
Governance & Integrity8.898.890.00014
Financial Strength8.588.62+0.03817
Production & Innovation7.747.89+0.15314
Trade & Investment8.308.300.00012

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 148, plus 3 carried in. Maintenance 112. Spent 37 on actions (build 22, buy 7, partner 7). 2 carried over.

  • PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance7 credits for 0.40 levelsmcts
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.84 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion7 credits for 0.91 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling7 credits for 0.85 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuildDigital & AI Competence7 credits for 0.75 levelsmcts_fill
The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Technology Adoption & Diffusion+0.91+0.910.000.000.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+0.58+0.580.000.000.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+0.52+0.520.000.000.00
Digital & AI Competence+0.45+0.450.000.000.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance+0.23+0.200.000.00+0.03
Economic Output & Productivity+0.15+0.140.000.00+0.01