Round 6 · simulation 32 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-tier-rank

Round 2032

Round 6 of 20 in simulation 32 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.040 to 6.68.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2032 (the end of 2031) and as it left it.

Capability index: 6.68 (+0.039); In: 6.65
Rank by index: 88; In: 89
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 3; In: 1

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	2.74	2.81	+0.071	11
Strategic Infrastructure	6.94	6.90	−0.033	8
National Security	3.57	3.58	+0.010	10
Human Capital	8.12	8.25	+0.133	12
Information & Influence	8.16	8.23	+0.064	9
Governance & Integrity	8.37	8.37	−0.004	15
Financial Strength	7.61	7.65	+0.034	20
Production & Innovation	7.05	7.02	−0.036	16
Trade & Investment	7.23	7.35	+0.118	13

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2032: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 124, plus 1 carried in. Maintenance 95. Spent 27 on actions (buy 6, partner 21). 3 carried over.

PartnerStrategic Strike & Missile Defence6 credits for 0.48 levelsmcts
BuyArtificial Intelligence6 credits for 0.87 levelsmcts_fill
PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance6 credits for 0.39 levelsmcts_fill
PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation6 credits for 0.88 levelsmcts_fill
PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access3 credits for 0.34 levelsmcts_fill

The groups that moved most in 2032, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested	Graph
Artificial Intelligence	+0.78	+0.87	−0.09
Technical & Vocational Skills	+0.68	+0.68	0.00
Trade Policy & Market Access	+0.65	+0.67	−0.02
Alliances & Security Cooperation	+0.42	+0.44	−0.02
Export Capability & Sophistication	+0.36	+0.44	−0.07
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	+0.34	+0.34	0.00