Simulation 32
Kenya, tree search, 20 years, seed 32: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 7.38 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 32
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 6 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 41 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 7.38 (+0.20)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 76
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 1 shock
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 7.21 +0.034 | |
| 2028 |
| 7.25 +0.034 | |
| 2029 |
| 7.27 +0.024 | |
| 2030 |
| Regional war spillover | 6.60 −0.665 |
| 2031 |
| 6.65 +0.041 | |
| 2032 |
| 6.68 +0.040 | |
| 2033 |
| 6.73 +0.049 | |
| 2034 |
| 6.78 +0.046 | |
| 2035 |
| 6.83 +0.049 | |
| 2036 |
| 6.88 +0.048 | |
| 2037 |
| 6.92 +0.046 | |
| 2038 |
| 6.99 +0.063 | |
| 2039 |
| 7.04 +0.052 | |
| 2040 |
| 7.08 +0.047 | |
| 2041 |
| 7.13 +0.046 | |
| 2042 |
| 7.18 +0.050 | |
| 2043 |
| 7.24 +0.056 | |
| 2044 |
| 7.28 +0.041 | |
| 2045 |
| 7.33 +0.052 | |
| 2046 |
| 7.38 +0.050 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 11 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.970 | −71.6 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.157 | +83.4 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.010 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.880 | +62.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.586 | +42.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 6.59 | +5.59 | +6.04 | 0.00 | −0.45 | 0.00 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 10.59 | +5.26 | +4.07 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +1.60 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 9.26 | +5.26 | +5.70 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 10.96 | +3.96 | +4.27 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.06 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 8.06 | +3.56 | +3.97 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.03 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 10.95 | +3.45 | +4.12 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 5.55 | +3.12 | +3.51 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.03 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 12.01 | +3.01 | +3.46 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.07 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 4.55 | +2.95 | +3.34 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.04 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 9.26 | +2.26 | +2.51 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.01 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 11.85 | +2.10 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.03 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 8.40 | +2.07 | +3.13 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.13 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 3.37 | +2.04 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 4.92 | +1.67 | +1.98 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.11 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 5.22 | +1.62 | +2.43 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.02 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 9.10 | +1.60 | +2.36 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 8.81 | +1.31 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.08 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 8.94 | +1.27 | +2.19 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 8.39 | +1.06 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.08 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.85 | +0.85 | +0.83 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.08 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 7.03 | +0.36 | +1.95 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.26 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 8.63 | −0.12 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.12 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 10.78 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.16 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 4.42 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.62 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 7.37 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.04 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 6.68 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.06 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 7.35 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.07 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 4.87 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.07 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 8.00 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.07 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 8.39 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.10 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 8.13 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.11 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 0.86 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.04 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 9.11 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 8.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.02 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 9.24 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 7.16 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.05 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 10.55 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.06 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 7.20 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 6.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.25 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.51 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.07 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 5.97 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.24 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 6.27 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.27 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 6.12 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.14 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 9.59 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | 0.00 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 7.30 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.06 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 5.29 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.12 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 3.90 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.02 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 6.21 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.06 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 3.93 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 9.18 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.04 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 8.58 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 7.26 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.11 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 10.15 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.15 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 8.40 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.06 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 8.15 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.10 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 7.14 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.05 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 8.93 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.06 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 7.12 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.06 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 1.45 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 7.34 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.18 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 8.59 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.02 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.05 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.11 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 6.79 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.20 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 7.71 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 6.27 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.15 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 1.11 | −1.22 | +0.48 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.09 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 8.20 | −1.30 | +0.80 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.31 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 4.58 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | +0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 7.77 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.06 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 5.76 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.03 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 4.53 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.11 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 1.67 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.07 |
Seed 32 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-tier-rank. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.