Round 12 · simulation 6 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-tier-rank

Round 2038

Round 12 of 20 in simulation 6 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.051 to 7.21.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2038 (the end of 2037) and as it left it.

Capability index
7.21 (+0.050)
In: 7.16
Rank by index
79
In: 80
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
7
In: 6
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology3.813.99+0.1828
Strategic Infrastructure7.457.47+0.0188
National Security3.813.82+0.0109
Human Capital8.378.42+0.0548
Information & Influence8.568.57+0.0087
Governance & Integrity8.228.220.00016
Financial Strength7.827.83+0.01419
Production & Innovation7.897.93+0.04512
Trade & Investment8.488.61+0.13011

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2038: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 147, plus 6 carried in. Maintenance 109. Spent 36 on actions (buy 14, partner 22). 7 carried over.

  • PartnerEconomic Output & Productivity7 credits for 0.47 levelsmctsahead of Nuclear Deterrence by -1 per cent
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing7 credits for 0.70 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication7 credits for 0.79 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing7 credits for 0.84 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access7 credits for 0.87 levelsmcts_fill
The groups that moved most in 2038, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing+0.84+0.840.000.000.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+0.70+0.700.000.000.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.44+0.430.000.000.00
Export Capability & Sophistication+0.40+0.400.000.000.00
Digital & AI Competence+0.28+0.280.000.000.00
Economic Output & Productivity+0.24+0.230.000.000.00