Round 2039
Round 13 of 20 in simulation 6 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Regional war spillover and AI labour shock, and the index −0.859 to 6.35.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2039 (the end of 2038) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.35 (−0.859)
- In: 7.21
- Rank by index
- 91
- In: 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 8
- In: 7
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3.99 | 3.41 | −0.586 | 8 → 9 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7.47 | 6.42 | −1.057 | 8 → 9 |
| National Security | 3.82 | 2.78 | −1.045 | 9 → 11 |
| Human Capital | 8.42 | 8.04 | −0.379 | 8 → 11 |
| Information & Influence | 8.57 | 7.95 | −0.623 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.22 | 7.55 | −0.670 | 16 |
| Financial Strength | 7.83 | 6.64 | −1.186 | 19 → 23 |
| Production & Innovation | 7.93 | 6.99 | −0.948 | 12 → 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 8.61 | 7.38 | −1.239 | 11 → 12 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2039: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 149, plus 7 carried in. Maintenance 111. Spent 37 on actions (buy 15, partner 22). 8 carried over.
- PartnerEconomic Output & Productivity7 credits for 0.47 levelsmctsahead of Quantum Technologies by 0 per cent
- BuySensing, Timing & Navigation7 credits for 0.90 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerEconomic Leverage & Dependence7 credits for 0.85 levelsmcts_fill
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing7 credits for 0.68 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerInvestment Attraction & Projection7 credits for 0.76 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Regional war spillover S03. −57.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −32.8 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 8 to 9; Strategic Infrastructure Tier 8 to 9; National Security Tier 9 to 11; Human Capital Tier 8 to 11; Financial Strength Tier 19 to 23; Production & Innovation Tier 12 to 15; Trade & Investment Tier 11 to 12.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | −2.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.09 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.09 | +0.05 |
| Maritime Power | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.86 | 0.00 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | +0.01 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | −1.72 | +0.43 | 0.00 | −2.16 | +0.01 |
| Resource Infrastructure | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.02 |