Round 2031
Round 5 of 20 in simulation 36 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Severe pandemic, and the index −0.295 to 7.03.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2031 (the end of 2030) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 7.03 (−0.295)
- In: 7.32
- Rank by index
- 80
- In: 77
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 0
- In: 3
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3.24 | 2.79 | −0.444 | 10 → 11 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7.88 | 7.69 | −0.193 | 7 → 8 |
| National Security | 4.60 | 4.42 | −0.183 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 8.12 | 8.00 | −0.121 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 8.49 | 8.27 | −0.219 | 8 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 8.64 | −0.250 | 14 → 15 |
| Financial Strength | 8.57 | 8.13 | −0.445 | 17 → 18 |
| Production & Innovation | 7.78 | 7.48 | −0.298 | 14 |
| Trade & Investment | 8.31 | 7.80 | −0.501 | 12 → 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2031: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 146, plus 3 carried in. Maintenance 113. Spent 36 on actions (build 14, buy 14, partner 7). 0 carried over.
- BuildArtificial Intelligence7 credits for 0.41 levelsmcts
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.81 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion7 credits for 0.86 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance7 credits for 0.85 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation7 credits for 0.99 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Severe pandemic S10. −25.5 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 10 to 11; Strategic Infrastructure Tier 7 to 8; Governance & Integrity Tier 14 to 15; Financial Strength Tier 17 to 18; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | 0.00 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | 0.00 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.03 |
| Labour & Employment | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.02 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +0.65 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −0.23 | 0.00 |