Simulation 25
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 25: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.05 in 2046; 59 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 25
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.05 (+2.04)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.05 +0.052 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.14 +0.088 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.28 +0.136 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.45 +0.171 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.59 +0.141 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.78 +0.189 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.91 +0.129 | |
| 2034 |
| Outbreak defence succeeds | 17.51 +0.601 |
| 2035 |
| 17.59 +0.084 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.67 +0.078 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.76 +0.086 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.84 +0.077 | |
| 2039 | No actions | Hybrid coercion | 17.69 −0.147 |
| 2040 |
| 17.73 +0.039 | |
| 2041 |
| Market access opening | 17.86 +0.129 |
| 2042 |
| 17.98 +0.120 | |
| 2043 |
| 18.07 +0.097 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 18.06 −0.010 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.05 −0.008 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.05 −0.010 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.382 | −165.8 | −5.40 |
| No shocks | +0.149 | +11.0 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.004 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.025 | −1.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.019 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.026 | −1.6 | −0.20 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.057 | +4.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.011 | +1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.015 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.85 | +5.35 | +4.85 | −0.11 | +0.38 | +0.47 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.82 | +5.32 | +4.80 | −0.11 | +0.36 | +0.46 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +3.83 | −0.03 | +0.74 | +0.51 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.63 | +4.63 | +3.68 | −0.03 | +0.74 | +0.23 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +9.55 | −0.04 | +1.27 | +0.16 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.99 | +3.99 | +5.68 | −0.05 | +0.87 | +0.43 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.99 | +3.99 | +4.00 | −0.03 | +0.87 | +0.18 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.96 | +3.96 | +6.58 | −0.05 | +0.87 | +0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +2.44 | −0.10 | +1.09 | +0.45 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.89 | +3.64 | +2.52 | −0.10 | +1.09 | +0.14 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.91 | +3.58 | +2.70 | −0.10 | +0.69 | +0.29 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.54 | +3.54 | +3.40 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.76 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.98 | +3.48 | +3.40 | −0.10 | +0.74 | +0.30 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.32 | +3.32 | +2.65 | −0.17 | +0.52 | +0.32 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 16.94 | +3.27 | +3.10 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.38 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.27 | +3.07 | +2.46 | −0.07 | +0.44 | +0.24 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.51 | +3.01 | +1.97 | −0.07 | +0.44 | +0.67 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +1.96 | −0.05 | +0.87 | +0.58 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +1.88 | −0.05 | +0.87 | +0.36 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.88 | −0.05 | +0.87 | +0.33 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.95 | +2.95 | +2.16 | −0.10 | +0.70 | +0.25 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.54 | +2.94 | +2.50 | −0.17 | +0.37 | +0.24 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.91 | +2.91 | +2.84 | −0.10 | +1.09 | +0.84 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 20.00 | +2.80 | +1.48 | −0.03 | +1.48 | +0.48 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.12 | +2.79 | +1.91 | −0.03 | +0.73 | +0.17 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +3.31 | −0.05 | +0.87 | +0.35 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.20 | +2.70 | +2.03 | −0.07 | +0.61 | +0.12 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.67 | +2.67 | +1.80 | −0.03 | +0.73 | +0.17 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.91 | +2.58 | +1.97 | −0.10 | +0.70 | +0.22 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.88 | +2.55 | +1.56 | −0.07 | +0.58 | +0.48 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 20.00 | +2.50 | +1.95 | −0.10 | +1.57 | +0.26 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.10 | +2.43 | +1.82 | −0.14 | +0.53 | +0.23 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.65 | +2.32 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +1.60 | +0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.83 | +2.16 | +1.58 | −0.09 | +0.55 | +0.12 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.78 | +1.78 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +1.08 | +0.78 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.51 | +1.76 | +0.96 | −0.05 | +0.58 | +0.27 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 18.39 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +1.35 | +0.41 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 16.64 | +1.64 | +0.51 | −0.08 | +0.73 | +0.49 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.64 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.73 | +1.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 3.20 | +1.53 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.08 | 0.00 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 17.58 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +1.05 | +0.36 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.84 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.99 | +0.41 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.51 | +1.31 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +1.01 | +0.45 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.53 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.53 | +0.88 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.50 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.60 | +0.57 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.07 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.73 | +0.44 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.77 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.60 | +0.44 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.60 | +0.89 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.53 | +0.50 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 16.64 | +0.89 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.73 | +0.24 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.97 | +0.84 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.71 | +0.20 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.49 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.57 | +0.28 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.48 | +0.81 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.73 | +0.17 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.38 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.53 | +0.40 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.55 | +0.75 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.53 | +0.35 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.24 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.73 | +0.09 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.23 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.53 | +0.34 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.99 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.44 | +0.28 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.15 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.54 | +0.26 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.39 | +0.64 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.59 | +0.11 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 16.37 | +0.62 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.44 | +0.23 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.91 | +0.58 | +0.59 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.17 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.56 | +0.56 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.44 | +0.18 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.33 | +0.53 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.38 | +0.24 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.41 | +0.41 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.33 | +0.18 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.08 | +0.41 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.44 | +0.03 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.82 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.37 | +0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.62 | +0.29 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.47 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.07 | +0.07 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.25 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.81 | +0.06 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.23 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.48 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.16 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.87 | −0.13 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.38 | +0.36 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.53 | −0.30 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.38 | +0.18 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.65 | −0.35 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.38 | +0.13 |
Seed 25 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-kor-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.